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Europe: Evrobasket - Qualifying - First qualifying round
Europe: Evrobasket - Qualifying - First qualifying round
05.07.2026 12:00 UTC Match prediction
05.07.2026 12:00 UTC
Finished

Europe: Evrobasket - Qualifying - First qualifying round

Luxembourg - North Macedonia

Basketball
Luxembourg
Luxembourg
66 : 80
Finished
North Macedonia
North Macedonia
Match signals

Two independent model estimates. Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

🔒 «Formula lock»

2North Macedonia — 70%

The formula agrees with the market favourite in the moderate-odds zone — historically the most profitable slice (basketball/football/hockey). NOT a profit guarantee.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Luxembourg - North Macedonia July 5, 2026

Basketball math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: North Macedonia. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 11.00 / 2 1.01

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 8.1%
1 8.4%
2 91.6%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Basketball stats

Head-to-head and team form

Head-to-head

0Wins1
0.0%Win %100.0%
70.0Points per game79.0
83.1Offensive rating110.0
93.8Defensive rating97.5
-9.0Point differential9.0
36.0Assists60.0
123.0Rebounds123.0
21.0%3-pointers, %30.0%

Team form

Luxembourg
Overall LLWWL Net +1.0
Home WL Net +24.0
Away LLWL Net -6.7
North Macedonia
Overall WWWWW Net +35.2
Home WWWW Net +45.3
Away WW Net +20.0

Team stats

Luxembourg Overall · Home/Away North Macedonia
50.0%H 100.0% · A 33.3%Win %100.0%H 100.0% · A 100.0%
1.0H 24.0 · A -6.7Point differential35.2H 45.3 · A 20.0
84.8H 89.0 · A 83.3Points per game81.8H 81.0 · A 83.0
84.3H 77.0 · A 86.7Conceded64.2H 58.3 · A 73.0
45.3%H 46.0% · A 45.0%FG, %43.2%H 40.7% · A 47.0%
50.0A 33.31st half80.0A 50.0
74.9H 75.2 · A 74.8Pace73.8H 74.5 · A 72.6
114.7H 114.7 · A 114.7Offensive rating110.1H 108.3 · A 113.0
114.0H 114.0 · A 114.0Defensive rating86.4H 85.0 · A 88.7

Team totals distribution

Over 70.5 - 100.5

Luxembourg Total (over) North Macedonia
84.8 Points per game 81.8
75.0%
O 79.5
40.0%
75.0%
O 80.5
40.0%
75.0%
O 81.5
40.0%
75.0%
O 82.5
40.0%
75.0%
O 83.5srednee
40.0%
75.0%
O 84.5
40.0%
50.0%
O 85.5
40.0%
50.0%
O 86.5
40.0%

Points by period

1st half (Q1+Q2)

Points per game: Luxembourg 42.8 / North Macedonia 40.2

Luxembourg Total (over) North Macedonia
50.0%
O 40.5
40.0%
50.0%
O 41.5srednee
40.0%
50.0%
O 42.5
20.0%
50.0%
O 43.5
20.0%
2nd half (Q3+Q4)

Points per game: Luxembourg 42.0 / North Macedonia 41.6

Luxembourg Total (over) North Macedonia
50.0%
O 40.5
60.0%
50.0%
O 41.5srednee
40.0%
25.0%
O 42.5
40.0%
25.0%
O 43.5
40.0%

Form and head-to-head • Eurobasket Qualification

Team stats

Luxembourg
LLWWLLL
W 2 • D 0 • L 5 (7)
Goals average:78.57 : 80.71
2 place, 7 pts
North Macedonia
LLWWWWWLWW
W 7 • D 0 • L 3 (10)
Goals average:77.4 : 75.5
1 place, 10 pts
Head-to-head: 3 — Luxembourg 0, draws 0, North Macedonia 3 (goals 227:253)
  • North Macedonia — Luxembourg2026-02-27 79:70
  • Luxembourg — North Macedonia2016-09-10 74:82
  • North Macedonia — Luxembourg2016-08-31 92:83

Form, head-to-head and league position: 365scores. For reference.

Rest and schedule

Team freshness

Luxembourg
Normal schedule
  • Rest days: 3
  • Matches in 7 days: 1 (in 14: 1)
North Macedonia
Normal schedule
  • Rest days: 3
  • Matches in 7 days: 1 (in 14: 2)

Rest and schedule density — from matches played in our database. For reference.

Totals and pace

Team scoring

Luxembourg
150 points/match (over 1)
  • Scores: 74
  • Concedes: 76
North Macedonia
147.5 points/match (over 2)
  • Scores: 80
  • Concedes: 67.5
Total line: 153.5 · projection from form: 148.8 · Over in 33% of recent games

Average scoring and pace — from matches played in our database. For reference, not a prediction.

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Match center
Start 05.07.2026 12:00 UTC
Match center

Luxembourg - North Macedonia

Form 1/1 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.01 Fonbet · line only
1 3.30 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 143.5 1.55 Fonbet · line only
Over 144.5 1.80 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Открыть на Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
1.90 52.6% 1.85 54.1% —
— — 1.63 61.4%
— — 1.80 55.6%
— — 1.75 57.1%
— — 1.65 60.6%
— — 1.83 54.6%
— — 2.02 49.5%
— — 2.25 44.4%
— — 2.10 47.6%
— — 2.30 43.5%
— — 2.05 48.8%
— — 2.20 45.5%
— — 1.75 57.1%
— — 1.65 60.6%
— — 1.55 64.5%
1.90 52.6% 1.85 54.1% —

Total

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
Over 143.5 — — 1.55 64.5%
Over 144.5 — — 1.80 55.6%
Over 145.5 — — 1.85 54.1%
Over 146.5 — — 1.52 65.8%
Over 147.5 — — 1.90 52.6%
Over 148.5 — — 1.50 66.7%
Over 149.5 — — 1.65 60.6%
Over 150.5 — — 1.80 55.6%
Over 151.5 — — 2.00 50.0%
Over 152.5 — — 2.18 45.9%
Over 153.5 1.90 52.6% 1.85 54.1% 2.15 46.5%
Over 154.5 — — 1.65 60.6%
Over 155.5 — — 1.73 57.8%
Over 156.5 — — 1.82 55.0%
Under 153.5 1.90 52.6% 1.85 54.1% —

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet Leon
3.35 29.9% 3.30 30.3% 11.00 9.1% 3.26 30.7%
1.32 75.8% 1.28 78.1% 1.01 99.0% 1.36 73.5%
Match center
Luxembourg
L
02.07 15:00 UTC Europe: Evrobasket - Qualifying - First qualifying round
Luxembourg 74:76 Azerbaijan
0 Wins
1 Losses
74.0 Scored
76.0 Conceded
0% Win percentage
North Macedonia
W
02.07 14:00 UTC Europe: Evrobasket - Qualifying - First qualifying round
North Macedonia 77:56 Ireland
1 Wins
0 Losses
77.0 Scored
56.0 Conceded
100% Win percentage