Who is the favourite in Romania vs Bulgaria?

By the PropickAI model, Bulgaria is favoured — about 65% win probability.

What does PropickAI predict for Romania vs Bulgaria?

The consensus of 7 AI models and the Glicko-2 rating leans to Bulgaria. Full probabilities and bookmaker odds are shown on this page.

What are the bookmaker odds for Romania vs Bulgaria?

Live odds for Romania vs Bulgaria from multiple bookmakers are listed on this page and refresh as the market moves.

AI verdict

AI pick Bulgaria win probability ~65% confidence High best odds 1.02

Model consensus and the Glicko-2 rating lean to Bulgaria. Full breakdown below.

Picks locked before kickoff results verified after public accuracy log →

Full Access Go deeper than the free pick Your free pick and probability are below. Full Access adds the full 7-AI consensus, every value-edge pick, math-model probabilities and complete reports for every match.

Get Full Access →

Europe: EuroBasket - Qualification - Second Krug

30.08.2026 15:00 UTC Match prediction

✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form ✓H2H ✓Prediction

30.08.2026 15:00 UTC

Finished

Europe: EuroBasket - Qualification - Second Krug

Romania vs Bulgaria — Basketball prediction

Basketball

Romania

68 : 84

Finished

Bulgaria

Romania host Bulgaria in basketball, in Europe: EuroBasket - Qualification - Second Krug, on 30 August 2026. The PropickAI Glicko-2 model rates Bulgaria as the favourite at around 65%. The bookmaker consensus (4 books) implies about 66% for the same outcome.

Latest form: Romania 2 won and 1 lost; Bulgaria 2 won and 1 lost. Glicko ratings: Romania 1744, Bulgaria 1909, a gap of 165 points.

Our model and the market consensus broadly agree on this match. Model confidence in the favourite is moderate. That is a 1-point gap to the market. For reliability the safer lean is a protected market on Bulgaria (double chance, say) rather than the outright win alone. Key markers: an edge of 165 Glicko rating points, the model's 65% for Bulgaria. Below on this page: team form, head-to-head history, bookmaker odds and the full PropickAI AI breakdown. This is a probability read from our model plus the market line, not a guaranteed outcome.

🎯 PropickAI prediction

High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

2 Bulgaria — 65%

1 · Romania34.7%

market 34%

2 · Bulgaria ✓ Pick65.3%

market 66%

Model estimate: win Romania 34.7%, win Bulgaria 65.3%. Model favourite — Bulgaria.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

🎯 Safe pick banker

Match winner — Bulgaria

Model confidence 89% ~91% on our history

How often this pick wins on our settled history — not a profit forecast.

How we calculated thisModel, consensus and market breakdown

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Romania - Bulgaria August 30, 2026

Basketball math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Bulgaria.

Line favourite Fonbet: Bulgaria. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

Win odds (Fonbet): 1 8.50 / 2 1.02
Glicko: Romania 34.7% / Bulgaria 65.3%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

Winner bookmaker margin 8.5% 4 books · best price +2.9%

1 33.7%

2 ✓ Pick 66.3%

Odds source: consensus of 4 books (Fonbet, Kambi BetMGM, Kambi Unibet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

Winner 1 3.20 ↓ 2.95

Winner 2 1.30 ↑ 1.35

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

Market consensus

Forecast by market

Match result

Romania

33%

8.50

Bulgaria

67%

1.44

Total

Over 165.5

50%

1.85

Under 165.5

50%

2.30

Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.

Head-to-head and form stats

Head-to-head and form

Head-to-head

1Wins4

72.6Points on average75.6

Head-to-head matches: 5 · average total 148.2 (points)

Team form

Romania

5-5WWLLLLWWLW

points for 76.9points against 79.1

Bulgaria

6-1-3WLWLWWWDLW

points for 85.6points against 79.8

Head-to-head and recent form per sports statistics — for reference.

Play-by-play

Match timeline

RomaniaBulgaria

1' Goal Bulgaria
1' Goal Bulgaria
2' Goal Romania
2' Goal Bulgaria
3' Goal Romania
3' Goal Romania
4' Goal Bulgaria
4' Goal Bulgaria
4' Goal Romania
5' Goal Romania
5' Goal Bulgaria
5' Goal Bulgaria
6' Goal Romania
6' Goal Bulgaria
6' Goal Romania
7' Goal Bulgaria
7' Goal Romania
7' Goal Romania
7' Goal Bulgaria
8' Goal Romania
8' Goal Bulgaria
8' Goal Romania
8' Goal Bulgaria
9' Goal Romania
9' Goal Bulgaria
9' Goal Romania
9' Goal Bulgaria
9' Goal Bulgaria
10' Goal Bulgaria
10' Goal Romania
11' Goal Romania
11' Goal Bulgaria
11' Goal Romania
13' Goal Romania
13' Goal Romania
14' Goal Bulgaria
14' Goal Bulgaria
15' Goal Bulgaria
17' Goal Romania
17' Goal Romania
18' Goal Bulgaria
18' Goal Bulgaria
18' Goal Bulgaria
19' Goal Bulgaria
19' Goal Bulgaria
20' Goal Bulgaria
20' Goal Romania
20' Goal Bulgaria
21' Goal Romania
21' Goal Bulgaria
21' Goal Bulgaria
21' Goal Bulgaria
22' Goal Bulgaria
22' Goal Romania
22' Goal Romania
22' Goal Romania
22' Goal Bulgaria
23' Goal Romania
23' Goal Bulgaria
24' Goal Romania
24' Goal Bulgaria
25' Goal Bulgaria
26' Goal Romania
27' Goal Bulgaria
29' Goal Romania
29' Goal Romania
30' Goal Bulgaria
31' Goal Bulgaria
32' Goal Bulgaria
33' Goal Bulgaria
33' Goal Romania
33' Goal Romania
34' Goal Bulgaria
34' Goal Bulgaria
34' Goal Romania
35' Goal Romania
35' Goal Romania
35' Goal Bulgaria
35' Goal Bulgaria
35' Goal Romania

Play-by-play: gismo. For reference.

Unlock the full AI analysis

Get the 7-AI consensus, math-model probabilities, value picks and full reports for every match with Full Access.

Get Full Access →

Match center

Start 30.08.2026 15:00 UTC

Market 1 10.7% @ 8.50 / 2 89.3% @ 1.02

Form 6 matches

🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model Bulgaria 65%

💹 Market Bulgaria 66%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

🏦 Virtual bank $10,000

$10,000Virtual balance

Play free: you start with $10,000 in virtual money. Bet on this match at our odds, then track your profit and climb the global leaderboard. No real money, no sign-up.

Stake ($)

My virtual bank & leaderboard →

Match center

Romania - Bulgaria

V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov.

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 3 head-to-head matches

Market 2 model / bookmakers

Post-match / PropickAI database

Score 68:84

Events 0

Statistics 0

Lineups 0

PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating

Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table away - 65.3% fact: away hit / ROI 44.0% / Brier 0.240 / LogLoss 0.425

Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table away - 56.1% fact: away hit / ROI 44.0% / Brier 0.385 / LogLoss 0.577

Market and Glicko

Basketball math model. The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Romania 33.7% 34.7%

Bulgaria 66.3% 65.3% market and model agree

1X2: 4 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Basketball math model

P1 / P2 34.7% / 65.3% probabilities

Rating 1,744 / 1,909 Romania / Bulgaria

RD 243 / 267 rating uncertainty

r +/- 2RD 1,257-2,230 / 1,374-2,443 strength interval

The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 1.02 Fonbet · no value · model 65.3%

1 8.50 Fonbet · no value · model 34.7%

Handicap

2 -1 1.83 market consensus · line only

1 1 1.81 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 158.5 1.70 Fonbet · line only

Over 159.5 1.70 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →

bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome	Fonbet
	1.62 61.7%
	1.62 61.7%
	1.78 56.2%
	2.00 50.0%
	2.20 45.5%
	1.45 69.0%
	1.40 71.4%
	1.83 54.6%
	1.73 57.8%
	1.95 51.3%
	2.20 45.5%
	1.43 69.9%
	2.55 39.2%
	1.50 66.7%
	1.37 73.0%
	1.45 69.0%
	1.58 63.3%
	1.73 57.8%

Total

Outcome	Fonbet
Over 158.5	1.70 58.8%
Over 159.5	1.70 58.8%
Over 160.5	1.50 66.7%
Over 161.5	1.57 63.7%
Over 162.5	1.65 60.6%
Over 163.5	1.75 57.1%
Over 164.5	1.82 55.0%
Over 165.5	1.52 65.8%
Over 166.5	1.60 62.5%
Over 167.5	1.68 59.5%
Over 168.5	1.75 57.1%
Over 169.5	1.85 54.1%
Over 170.5	1.95 51.3%
Over 171.5	2.05 48.8%
Over 172.5	2.15 46.5%
Over 173.5	2.30 43.5%
Over 179.5	1.47 68.0%
Over 180.5	1.63 61.4%

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome	Fonbet	Kambi BetMGM	Kambi Unibet	Leon
	8.50 11.8%	2.70 37.0%	2.70 37.0%	2.88 34.7%
	1.02 98.0%	1.40 71.4%	1.40 71.4%	1.44 69.4%

Match center

Form & head-to-head

H2H 0-0-3

2026-08-30 · Romania 86:103 Bulgaria

2023-02-23 · Romania 61:62 Bulgaria

2022-08-28 · Romania 72:84 Bulgaria

Source: ruscore

Romania

W L W W L

2026-08-27 European Championship 2029, Pre-Qualifiers, 2nd round, Gr. D

Romania Denmark 78:89 Romania

2026-07-05 FIBA World Cup 2027, European Qualifiers, Group B

Romania Montenegro 65:64 Romania

2026-07-02 FIBA World Cup 2027, European Qualifiers, Group B

Romania Romania 73:66 Greece

2026-03-02 FIBA World Cup 2027, European Qualifiers, Group B

Romania Romania 101:96 Portugal

2026-02-27 FIBA World Cup 2027, European Qualifiers, Group B

Romania Portugal 99:82 Romania

3 Wins

2 Losses

81.8 Scored

80.8 Conceded

60% Win percentage

Bulgaria

W W L W L

2026-08-21 Int. Friendly Games 2026

Slovakia 79:81 Bulgaria Bulgaria

2026-07-05 European Championship 2029, Pre-Qualifiers, 1st round, Gr. B

Bulgaria 88:57 Norway Bulgaria

2026-06-25 Int. Friendly Games 2026

North Macedonia 91:87 Bulgaria Bulgaria

2026-03-02 European Championship 2029, Pre-Qualifiers, 1st round, Gr. B

Armenia 80:100 Bulgaria Bulgaria

2026-02-27 European Championship 2029, Pre-Qualifiers, 1st round, Gr. B

Norway 76:67 Bulgaria Bulgaria

3 Wins

2 Losses

84.6 Scored

76.6 Conceded

60% Win percentage

Match center

Full head-to-head history: Romania - Bulgaria

Romania

3 matches total

Bulgaria

Romania: 0 (0%)

Bulgaria: 3 (100%)

Biggest win Bulgaria 92:65 (2023-07-10) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 157 points (92:65, 2023-07-10) most points in a game

Match history

2023-07-10 EuroBasket, Qualification 2028

Bulgaria 92:65 Romania

2023-02-23 EuroBasket, Qualification 2028

Romania 61:62 Bulgaria

2022-08-28 EuroBasket, Qualification 2028

Bulgaria 84:72 Romania

Romania vs Bulgaria — Basketball prediction

AI match prediction Romania - Bulgaria August 30, 2026

Fair probability (no margin)

Line movement

Forecast by market

Head-to-head and form

Head-to-head

Team form

Match timeline

Unlock the full AI analysis

Romania - Bulgaria

Match markets

Handicap

Total

Outcome (1X2)

Form & head-to-head

Match history

More predictions

Frequently asked questions