When does Turkey vs Lithuania start?

AI verdict

AI pick Turkey win probability ~58% confidence Medium best odds 1.18

Model consensus and the Glicko-2 rating lean to Turkey. Full breakdown below.

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Europe: World Championship - Qualification - Second Krug

28.08.2026 18:00 UTC

✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form ✓H2H ✓Prediction

28.08.2026 18:00 UTC

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Europe: World Championship - Qualification - Second Krug

Turkey - Lithuania

Basketball

Turkey

- : -

Not started

Lithuania

Turkey go head-to-head with Lithuania on August 28, 2026 in the Europe: World Championship - Qualification - Second Krug.

Recent form (W-D-L): Turkey 4-0-1, Lithuania 2-0-3. These sides have met 3 times recently — the head-to-head record is shown below. Full analysis — form, H2H, odds and the PropickAI AI prediction — follows on this page.

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Medium confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Turkey — 58%

1 · Turkey ✓ Pick57.7%

2 · Lithuania42.3%

Model estimate: win Turkey 57.7%, win Lithuania 42.3%. Model favourite — Turkey.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

🎯 Safe pick strong

Match winner — Turkey

Model confidence 80% ~88% on our history

How often this pick wins on our settled history — not a profit forecast.

How we calculated thisModel, consensus and market breakdown

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Turkey - Lithuania August 28, 2026

Basketball math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: Turkey. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

Win odds (Fonbet): 1 1.18 / 2 4.85

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

Winner bookmaker margin 6.5% 4 books

1 ✓ Pick 80.1%

2 19.9%

Odds source: consensus of 4 books (Fonbet, Kambi BetMGM, Kambi Unibet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

Winner P1 1.18 → 1.18

Winner P2 4.85 → 4.85

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

Market consensus

Forecast by market

Match result

Turkey

80%

1.18

Lithuania

20%

4.85

Total

Over 170.5

50%

1.88

Under 170.5

50%

1.85

Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.

Standing in the tournament

League table

Turkey

#112 ptsGP 66-0

Lithuania

#49 ptsGP 63-3

Team positions in the current tournament per official statistics — for reference.

Head-to-head and form stats

Head-to-head and form

Head-to-head

5Wins7

75.3Points on average78.8

Head-to-head matches: 12 · average total 154.2 (points)

Team form

Turkey

8-2WLWWWWWWLW

points for 90.1points against 77.7

Lithuania

4-6WLLWLWLLLW

points for 91.3points against 88.8

Head-to-head and recent form per sports statistics — for reference.

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Match center

Start 28.08.2026 18:00 UTC

Market 1 80.4% @ 1.18 / 2 19.6% @ 4.85

Form 6 matches

🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model Turkey 58%

💹 Market Turkey 80%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

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Match center

Turkey - Lithuania

V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov.

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 3 head-to-head matches

Market 2 model / bookmakers

Market and Glicko

Basketball math model. The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Turkey 80.4% 57.7% market and model agree

Lithuania 19.6% 42.3%

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Basketball math model

P1 / P2 57.7% / 42.3% probabilities

Rating 1,734 / 1,560 Turkey / Lithuania

RD 246 / 212 rating uncertainty

r +/- 2RD 1,242-2,227 / 1,135-1,985 strength interval

The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 4.85 Fonbet · no value · model 42.3%

1 1.18 Fonbet · no value · model 57.7%

Total

Over 160.5 1.50 Fonbet · line only

Over 161.5 1.53 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →

bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome	Fonbet
	1.80 55.6%
	1.95 51.3%
	2.00 50.0%
	2.12 47.2%
	2.30 43.5%
	2.50 40.0%
	2.70 37.0%
	1.90 52.6%
	1.85 54.1%
	1.72 58.1%
	1.64 61.0%
	1.55 64.5%
	1.47 68.0%
	1.41 70.9%
	2.37 42.2%
	2.30 43.5%
	2.07 48.3%
	2.00 50.0%

Total

Outcome	Fonbet
Over 160.5	1.50 66.7%
Over 161.5	1.53 65.4%
Over 162.5	1.58 63.3%
Over 163.5	1.53 65.4%
Over 164.5	1.50 66.7%
Over 165.5	1.56 64.1%
Over 166.5	1.62 61.7%
Over 167.5	1.70 58.8%
Over 168.5	1.75 57.1%
Over 169.5	1.87 53.5%
Over 170.5	1.88 53.2%
Over 171.5	1.96 51.0%
Over 172.5	2.07 48.3%
Over 173.5	2.15 46.5%
Over 174.5	2.30 43.5%
Over 175.5	2.33 42.9%
Under 160.5	2.40 41.7%
Under 161.5	2.33 42.9%

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome	Fonbet	Kambi BetMGM	Kambi Unibet	Leon
	1.18 84.8%	1.17 85.5%	1.17 85.5%	1.18 84.8%
	4.85 20.6%	4.70 21.3%	4.70 21.3%	4.67 21.4%

Match center

Form & head-to-head

H2H 1-0-2

2025-08-20 · Turkey 84:81 Lithuania

2025-08-07 · Turkey 70:91 Lithuania

2014-09-09 · Turkey 61:73 Lithuania

Source: ruscore

Turkey

W L W W W

2026-08-22 Basketball Super Cup 2026

Turkey Turkey 99:84 Czech Republic

2026-08-21 Basketball Super Cup 2026

Turkey Croatia 95:94 Turkey

2026-07-06 FIBA World Cup 2027, European Qualifiers, Group C

Turkey Turkey 95:72 Switzerland

2026-07-02 FIBA World Cup 2027, European Qualifiers, Group C

Turkey Bosnia and Herzegovina 75:82 Turkey

2026-03-02 FIBA World Cup 2027, European Qualifiers, Group C

Turkey Turkey 94:86 Serbia

4 Wins

1 Losses

92.8 Scored

82.4 Conceded

80% Win percentage

Lithuania

W L L L W

2026-08-23 Int. Friendly Games 2026

Lithuania 96:84 Michigan (stud) Lithuania

2026-08-22 Int. Friendly Games 2026

Lithuania 74:88 Arizona (stud) Lithuania

2026-08-20 Int. Friendly Games 2026

Lithuania 108:110 Estonia Lithuania

2026-07-05 FIBA World Cup 2027, European Qualifiers, Group D

Italy 87:84 Lithuania Lithuania

2026-07-02 FIBA World Cup 2027, European Qualifiers, Group D

Lithuania 105:85 Great Britain Lithuania

2 Wins

3 Losses

93.4 Scored

90.8 Conceded

40% Win percentage

Match center

Full head-to-head history: Turkey - Lithuania

Turkey

3 matches total

Lithuania

Turkey: 0 (0%)

Lithuania: 3 (100%)

Biggest win Lithuania 70:91 (2025-08-07) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 165 points (81:84, 2025-08-20) most points in a game

Match history

2025-08-20 World Cup Qualification, Europe 2025

Lithuania 81:84 Turkiye

2025-08-07 World Cup Qualification, Europe 2025

Turkiye 70:91 Lithuania

2015-08-27 World Cup Qualification, Europe 2025

Lithuania 53:71 Turkiye

Turkey - Lithuania

AI match prediction Turkey - Lithuania August 28, 2026

Fair probability (no margin)

Line movement

Forecast by market

League table

Head-to-head and form

Head-to-head

Team form

Unlock the full AI analysis

Turkey - Lithuania

Match markets

Handicap

Total

Outcome (1X2)

Form & head-to-head

Match history

More predictions

Frequently asked questions