Match center
Start
05.07.2026 16:00 UTC
05.07.2026 16:00 UTC
Finished
Europe: World Cup - Qualifying - First qualifying round
Croatia - Israel
103
:
75
Finished
Match signals
Two independent model estimates. Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
🎯 «Confident pick»
1Croatia — 87%
The most likely outcome per the model. Reliability, NOT a profit guarantee.
💎 «Value»
2Israel — odds 10.00 · edge +3.2% · 3 bookies
The model rates the probability higher than the price implies. Elevated risk/variance; the signal is not confirmed on a large sample.
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Croatia - Israel July 5, 2026
Basketball math modelThe summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
Line favourite Fonbet: Croatia. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- Win odds (Fonbet): 1 1.02 / 2 14.00
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner
bookmaker margin 5.2%
1
93.2%
2
6.8%
Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
Standing in the tournament
League table
Croatia
Israel
Team positions in the current tournament per official statistics — for reference.
Basketball stats
Head-to-head and team form
Head-to-head
Team form
Croatia
Coach: Josip Sesar
Overall
WLLWW
Net +54.2
Home
WW
Net +61.5
Away
WLLW
Net +48.4
Israel
Overall
WWLLL
Net +17.5
Home
WLL
Net +26.0
Away
WLL
Net +9.0
Team stats
Croatia
Overall · Home/Away
Israel
88.9%H 100.0% · A 80.0%Win %50.0%H 50.0% · A 50.0%
54.2H 61.5 · A 48.4Point differential17.5H 26.0 · A 9.0
96.9H 98.8 · A 95.4Points per game79.3H 82.5 · A 76.0
69.8H 68.0 · A 71.2Conceded70.5H 69.5 · A 71.5
54.0%H 54.8% · A 53.4%FG, %46.0%H 44.5% · A 47.5%
77.8H 75.0 · A 80.01st half50.0H 50.0 · A 50.0
75.4H 73.6 · A 76.8Pace71.9H 74.7 · A 67.9
128.1H 131.7 · A 125.4Offensive rating112.3H 104.0 · A 122.7
92.3H 94.9 · A 90.3Defensive rating99.9H 92.5 · A 109.1
Team totals distribution
Over 70.5 - 100.5
Croatia
Total (over)
Israel
96.9
Points per game
79.3
88.9%
O 84.5
25.0%
77.8%
O 85.5
25.0%
77.8%
O 86.5
25.0%
77.8%
O 87.5
25.0%
77.8%
O 88.5srednee
25.0%
66.7%
O 89.5
25.0%
66.7%
O 90.5
25.0%
66.7%
O 91.5
25.0%
Over 101.5 - 130.5
Croatia
Total (over)
Israel
11.1%
O 108.5
0.0%
11.1%
O 109.5
0.0%
11.1%
O 110.5
0.0%
11.1%
O 111.5
0.0%
11.1%
O 112.5
0.0%
11.1%
O 113.5
0.0%
11.1%
O 114.5
0.0%
11.1%
O 115.5
0.0%
Points by period
1st half (Q1+Q2)
Points per game: Croatia 50.4 / Israel 44.0
Croatia
Total (over)
Israel
88.9%
O 45.5
25.0%
77.8%
O 46.5
25.0%
55.6%
O 47.5srednee
25.0%
55.6%
O 48.5
25.0%
2nd half (Q3+Q4)
Points per game: Croatia 45.1 / Israel —
Croatia
Total (over)
Israel
66.7%
O 40.5
0.0%
66.7%
O 41.5
0.0%
66.7%
O 42.5
0.0%
55.6%
O 43.5srednee
0.0%
Rest and schedule
Team freshness
Croatia
Normal schedule- Rest days: 2
- Matches in 7 days: 1 (in 14: 2)
Israel
Normal schedule- Rest days: 2
- Matches in 7 days: 1 (in 14: 1)
Rest and schedule density — from matches played in our database. For reference.
Totals and pace
Team scoring
Croatia
179 points/match (over 2)
- Scores: 104
- Concedes: 75
Israel
178 points/match (over 1)
- Scores: 86
- Concedes: 92
Total line: 168.5 · projection from form: 178.5 · Over in 100% of recent games
Average scoring and pace — from matches played in our database. For reference, not a prediction.
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Match center
Croatia - Israel
Form
1/1
recent games
H2H
0
head-to-head matches
Market
0
model / bookmakers
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
8.97
market consensus · line only
1
1.02
Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 102.5
1.72
Fonbet · line only
Over 103.5
1.95
Fonbet · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
bookmaker line and markets
Handicap
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity | Fonbet |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.79 55.9% | 1.84 54.4% | — | |
| 1.89 52.9% | — | — | |
| 1.89 52.9% | 1.96 51.0% | — | |
| 1.79 55.9% | — | — | |
| — | — | 2.50 40.0% | |
| — | — | 2.37 42.2% | |
| — | — | 2.37 42.2% | |
| — | — | 2.37 42.2% | |
| — | — | 2.37 42.2% | |
| — | — | 2.30 43.5% | |
| — | — | 2.07 48.3% | |
| — | — | 2.65 37.7% | |
| — | — | 2.40 41.7% | |
| — | — | 2.75 36.4% | |
| — | — | 2.40 41.7% | |
| — | — | 2.15 46.5% |
Total
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity | Fonbet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 102.5 | — | — | 1.72 58.1% |
| Over 103.5 | — | — | 1.95 51.3% |
| Over 157.5 | — | — | 1.47 68.0% |
| Over 158.5 | — | — | 1.55 64.5% |
| Over 159.5 | — | — | 1.45 69.0% |
| Over 160.5 | — | — | 1.52 65.8% |
| Over 161.5 | — | — | 1.33 75.2% |
| Over 162.5 | — | — | 1.42 70.4% |
| Over 163.5 | — | — | 1.25 80.0% |
| Over 164.5 | — | — | 1.35 74.1% |
| Over 165.5 | — | — | 1.45 69.0% |
| Over 166.5 | — | — | 1.58 63.3% |
| Over 168.5 | 1.81 55.3% | 1.88 53.2% | — |
| Over 169.5 | — | 1.95 51.3% | — |
| Under 168.5 | 1.87 53.5% | 1.92 52.1% | — |
| Under 169.5 | — | 1.85 54.1% | — |
Outcome (1X2)
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity | Fonbet | Leon |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.04 96.2% | 1.05 95.2% | 1.02 98.0% | 1.05 95.2% | |
| 8.00 12.5% | 10.00 10.0% | 14.00 7.1% | 8.90 11.2% |
Match center
Croatia
W
Croatia
123:50
Cyprus
1
Wins
0
Losses
123.0
Scored
50.0
Conceded
100%
Win percentage
Israel
L
Israel
86:92
Germany
0
Wins
1
Losses
86.0
Scored
92.0
Conceded
0%
Win percentage
Match center
Full head-to-head historyCroatia - Israel
Croatia
0
matches total
Biggest win
—
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
—
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals