Match center
Start
05.07.2026 14:00 UTC
05.07.2026 14:00 UTC
Finished
Europe: World Cup - Qualifying - First qualifying round
Poland - Netherlands
92
:
84
Finished
Match signals
Two independent model estimates. Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
🎯 «Confident pick»
1Poland — 82%
The most likely outcome per the model. Reliability, NOT a profit guarantee.
💎 «Value»
2Netherlands — odds 7.00 · edge +3.8% · 4 bookies
The model rates the probability higher than the price implies. Elevated risk/variance; the signal is not confirmed on a large sample.
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Poland - Netherlands July 5, 2026
Basketball math modelThe summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
Line favourite Fonbet: Poland. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- Win odds (Fonbet): 1 1.01 / 2 11.00
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner
bookmaker margin 8.1%
1
91.6%
2
8.4%
Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
Standing in the tournament
League table
Poland
Netherlands
Team positions in the current tournament per official statistics — for reference.
Basketball stats
Head-to-head and team form
Team form
Poland
Overall
WWWLW
Net +62.0
Home
WWW
Net +62.0
Away
WLW
Net -1.0
Netherlands
Overall
WLLLW
Net +8.0
Home
LL
Net -1.0
Away
WLLW
Net +8.0
Team stats
Poland
Overall · Home/Away
Netherlands
100.0%H 100.0%Win %100.0%A 100.0%
62.0H 62.0 · A -1.0Point differential8.0H -1.0 · A 8.0
91.0H 91.0Points per game78.0A 78.0
60.0H 60.0Conceded74.0A 74.0
83.0%H 83.0%FG, %42.0%A 42.0%
—A -1.01st half0.0H -1.0 · A 0.0
59.1H 59.1Pace83.7A 83.7
130.1H 130.1Offensive rating92.0A 92.0
85.8H 85.8Defensive rating87.3A 87.3
Team totals distribution
Over 70.5 - 100.5
Poland
Total (over)
Netherlands
91.0
Points per game
78.0
100.0%
O 80.5
0.0%
100.0%
O 81.5
0.0%
100.0%
O 82.5
0.0%
100.0%
O 83.5
0.0%
100.0%
O 84.5srednee
0.0%
100.0%
O 85.5
0.0%
100.0%
O 86.5
0.0%
100.0%
O 87.5
0.0%
Points by period
2nd half (Q3+Q4)
Points per game: Poland 52.0 / Netherlands 40.0
Poland
Total (over)
Netherlands
100.0%
O 44.5
0.0%
100.0%
O 45.5srednee
0.0%
100.0%
O 46.5
0.0%
100.0%
O 47.5
0.0%
Rest and schedule
Team freshness
Poland
Normal schedule- Rest days: 2
- Matches in 7 days: 1 (in 14: 1)
Netherlands
Normal schedule- Rest days: 2
- Matches in 7 days: 1 (in 14: 1)
Rest and schedule density — from matches played in our database. For reference.
Totals and pace
Team scoring
Poland
200 points/match (over 1)
- Scores: 123
- Concedes: 77
Netherlands
141 points/match (over 1)
- Scores: 69
- Concedes: 72
Total line: 160.5 · projection from form: 170.5 · Over in 50% of recent games
Average scoring and pace — from matches played in our database. For reference, not a prediction.
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Match center
Poland - Netherlands
Form
1/1
recent games
H2H
0
head-to-head matches
Market
0
model / bookmakers
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
6.27
market consensus · line only
1
1.01
Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 148.5
1.55
Fonbet · line only
Over 149.5
1.50
Fonbet · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
bookmaker line and markets
Handicap
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity | Fonbet |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.84 54.4% | 1.90 52.6% | — | |
| 1.84 54.4% | 1.90 52.6% | — | |
| — | — | 2.00 50.0% | |
| — | — | 1.40 71.4% | |
| — | — | 1.60 62.5% | |
| — | — | 1.48 67.6% | |
| — | — | 1.38 72.5% | |
| — | — | 1.52 65.8% | |
| — | — | 1.51 66.2% | |
| — | — | 1.44 69.4% | |
| — | — | 1.44 69.4% | |
| — | — | 1.80 55.6% | |
| — | — | 2.50 40.0% | |
| — | — | 2.30 43.5% | |
| — | — | 1.93 51.8% | |
| — | — | 1.85 54.1% |
Total
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity | Fonbet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 148.5 | — | — | 1.55 64.5% |
| Over 149.5 | — | — | 1.50 66.7% |
| Over 150.5 | — | — | 1.57 63.7% |
| Over 151.5 | — | — | 1.67 59.9% |
| Over 152.5 | — | — | 1.75 57.1% |
| Over 153.5 | — | — | 1.85 54.1% |
| Over 154.5 | — | — | 1.95 51.3% |
| Over 155.5 | — | — | 2.10 47.6% |
| Over 156.5 | — | — | 2.25 44.4% |
| Over 157.5 | — | — | 1.50 66.7% |
| Over 158.5 | — | — | 1.45 69.0% |
| Over 159.5 | — | — | 1.53 65.4% |
| Over 160.5 | 1.84 54.4% | 1.90 52.6% | 1.63 61.4% |
| Over 161.5 | — | — | 1.73 57.8% |
| Under 160.5 | 1.84 54.4% | 1.90 52.6% | — |
Outcome (1X2)
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity | Fonbet | Leon |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.10 90.9% | 1.10 90.9% | 1.01 99.0% | 1.11 90.1% | |
| 5.60 17.9% | 7.00 14.3% | 11.00 9.1% | 6.20 16.1% |
Match center
Poland
W
Poland
123:77
Austria
1
Wins
0
Losses
123.0
Scored
77.0
Conceded
100%
Win percentage
Netherlands
L
Netherlands
69:72
Latvia
0
Wins
1
Losses
69.0
Scored
72.0
Conceded
0%
Win percentage
Match center
Full head-to-head historyPoland - Netherlands
Poland
0
matches total
Biggest win
—
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
—
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals