European Championship. U20. Division B. Slovakia. Quarter-finals
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
2 Luxembourg U20 — 54%
Pure model vs market (2 · Luxembourg U20): model 52% · market 92% Δ −40 pp model estimates below the market
Model estimate: win Estonia U20 46.1%, win Luxembourg U20 53.9%. Model favourite — Luxembourg U20.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Luxembourg U20.
For reference
Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
For reference
↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.
Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: 100 RUB
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Basketball math model. The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.
Glicko-2 - рейтинговая модель силы: сравнивает линию, историю и стабильность, но не дает гарантий.
Best value: value не найден
The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
| Outcome | Baltbet | Fonbet |
|---|---|---|
| П1 +1.5 | 1.79 55.9% | — |
| П1 +2.5 | 1.89 52.9% | — |
| П2 +1.5 | — | 1.73 57.8% |
| П2 +10.5 | — | 2.02 49.5% |
| П2 +11.5 | — | 1.65 60.6% |
| П2 +12.5 | — | 1.55 64.5% |
| П2 +13.5 | — | 1.58 63.3% |
| П2 +14.5 | — | 1.82 55.0% |
| П2 +15.5 | — | 1.60 62.5% |
| П2 +16.5 | — | 1.75 57.1% |
| П2 -1.5 | 1.89 52.9% | 1.55 64.5% |
| П2 -2.5 | 1.79 55.9% | 1.82 55.0% |
| П2 -3.5 | — | 1.70 58.8% |
| П2 -4.5 | — | 1.62 61.7% |
| П2 -5.5 | — | 1.55 64.5% |
| П2 -6.5 | — | 1.58 63.3% |
| Outcome | Baltbet | Fonbet |
|---|---|---|
| ТБ 129.5 | — | 1.68 59.5% |
| ТБ 130.5 | — | 1.67 59.9% |
| ТБ 131.5 | — | 1.87 53.5% |
| ТБ 132.5 | — | 1.55 64.5% |
| ТБ 133.5 | — | 1.80 55.6% |
| ТБ 134.5 | — | 1.90 52.6% |
| ТБ 135.5 | — | 2.30 43.5% |
| ТБ 136.5 | — | 2.40 41.7% |
| ТБ 137.5 | — | 2.10 47.6% |
| ТБ 138.5 | — | 2.45 40.8% |
| ТБ 139.5 | — | 2.40 41.7% |
| ТБ 140.5 | — | 2.40 41.7% |
| ТБ 142.5 | 1.89 52.9% | — |
| ТБ 143.5 | 1.83 54.6% | — |
| ТБ 144.5 | 1.87 53.5% | — |
| ТМ 142.5 | 1.79 55.9% | — |
| ТМ 143.5 | 1.85 54.1% | — |
| ТМ 144.5 | 1.81 55.3% | — |
| Outcome | Baltbet | Bet365 | Bet365 (no latency) | Fonbet | Leon |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| П1 | 2.15 46.5% | 1.95 51.3% | 1.95 51.3% | 11.00 9.1% | 2.11 47.4% |
| П2 | 1.61 62.1% | 1.74 57.5% | 1.74 57.5% | 1.01 99.0% | 1.70 58.8% |
Estonia U20
Ukraine U20
Luxembourg U20
Full head-to-head historyEstonia U20 - Luxembourg U20
