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IPBL
IPBL International
15.07.2026 06:10 MSK Match prediction
15.07.2026 06:10 MSK
Finished

IPBL

Asbest - Essentuki

International Basketball
Asbest
Asbest
125 : 127
Finished
Essentuki
Essentuki
🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Asbest — 54%

1 · Asbest54.3%
2 · Essentuki45.7%

Model estimate: win Asbest 54.3%, win Essentuki 45.7%. Model favourite — Asbest.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Asbest - Essentuki 15 июля 2026

Basketball math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Asbest.

Line favourite Fonbet: Asbest. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 1.07 / 2 6.80
  • Glicko: Asbest 54.3% / Essentuki 45.7%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 8.2%
1 86.4%
2 13.6%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Победитель П1 1.58 ↓ 1.20
Победитель П2 2.23 ↑ 4.00

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 15.07.2026 06:10 MSK
Form 6 matches
H2H 3
Match center

Asbest - Essentuki

В базе учтены недавние матчи обоих участников и 3 очных встреч.

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 3 head-to-head matches
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Flashscore match data source checked
Odds match data source checked
Bookiesapi match data source checked
Line depth match data source checked
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants H2H Line Movement Overview
More needed
Tournament Championat, Flashscore
Lineup / squad Championat, Injuries
Post-match / PropickAI database
Score 125:127
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
Market and Glicko

Basketball math model. The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Asbest 76.9% 54.3% market and model agree
Essentuki 23.1% 45.7%
1X2: 1 Bookies

Glicko-2 - рейтинговая модель силы: сравнивает линию, историю и стабильность, но не дает гарантий.

Basketball math model
P1 / P2 54.3% / 45.7% probabilities
Rating 1,546 / 1,533 Asbest / Essentuki
RD 72 / 69 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,402-1,690 / 1,395-1,671 strength interval
HFA: 65 HFA mu: 0.374 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: value не найден

The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 6.80 Fonbet · weak value +210.6% · model 45.7%
1 1.07 Fonbet · no value · model 54.3%
Handicap
2 -0.5 2.13 Fonbet · line only
2 +0.5 2.13 Fonbet · line only
1 -0.5 1.63 Fonbet · line only
1 +0.5 1.63 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 192.5 1.43 Fonbet · line only
Over 193.5 1.57 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Открыть на Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Fonbet
П2 -0.5 2.13 47.0%
П2 -1.5 1.95 51.3%
П2 -10.5 1.65 60.6%
П2 -11.5 1.77 56.5%
П2 -12.5 1.95 51.3%
П2 -13.5 1.68 59.5%
П2 -14.5 2.45 40.8%
П2 -15.5 2.13 47.0%
П2 -16.5 1.87 53.5%
П2 -17.5 1.65 60.6%
П2 -18.5 1.50 66.7%
П2 -2.5 2.35 42.6%
П2 -3.5 2.10 47.6%
П2 -4.5 1.90 52.6%
П2 -5.5 2.30 43.5%
П2 -6.5 2.07 48.3%
П2 -7.5 2.15 46.5%
П2 -8.5 1.94 51.6%

Total

Outcome Fonbet
ТБ 192.5 1.43 69.9%
ТБ 193.5 1.57 63.7%
ТБ 194.5 1.75 57.1%
ТБ 195.5 2.00 50.0%
ТБ 196.5 2.30 43.5%
ТБ 197.5 2.65 37.7%
ТБ 198.5 1.70 58.8%
ТБ 199.5 1.87 53.5%
ТБ 200.5 2.10 47.6%
ТБ 201.5 2.35 42.6%
ТБ 202.5 1.57 63.7%
ТБ 203.5 1.68 59.5%
ТБ 204.5 1.83 54.6%
ТБ 205.5 2.00 50.0%
ТБ 206.5 2.20 45.5%
ТБ 207.5 2.45 40.8%
ТБ 208.5 2.30 43.5%
ТБ 209.5 1.80 55.6%

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Fonbet
П1 1.07 93.5%
П2 6.80 14.7%
Match center
Asbest
L W L W W
13.07 10:10 МСК IPBL
Asbest 120:126 Kemerovo
13.07 08:10 МСК IPBL
Asbest 119:117 Irkutsk
13.07 06:10 МСК IPBL
Asbest 123:126 Essentuki
10.07 08:10 МСК IPBL
Asbest 113:108 Irkutsk
10.07 06:10 МСК IPBL
Asbest 105:93 Essentuki
3 Wins
2 Losses
116.0 Scored
114.0 Conceded
60% Win percentage
Essentuki
L W W W L
13.07 11:10 МСК IPBL
Essentuki 103:115 Irkutsk
13.07 09:10 МСК IPBL
Essentuki 121:119 Kemerovo
13.07 06:10 МСК IPBL
Essentuki 126:123 Asbest
10.07 09:10 МСК IPBL
Essentuki 132:129 Kemerovo
10.07 06:10 МСК IPBL
Essentuki 93:105 Asbest
3 Wins
2 Losses
115.0 Scored
118.2 Conceded
60% Win percentage
Match center

Full head-to-head historyAsbest - Essentuki

Asbest
3 matches total
Essentuki
Asbest: 2 (66.7%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Essentuki: 1 (33.3%)
Biggest win Asbest 105:93 (10.07 06:10 МСК) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 249 goals (123:126, 13.07 06:10 МСК) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

13.07 06:10 МСК IPBL
Asbest
123:126
Essentuki
10.07 06:10 МСК IPBL
Asbest
105:93
Essentuki
08.07 06:10 МСК IPBL
Asbest
112:107
Essentuki