IPBL International

15.07.2026 06:00 MSK Match prediction

15.07.2026 06:00 MSK

Finished

IPBL

Barnaul - Novosibirsk

International Basketball

Barnaul

90 : 77

Finished

Novosibirsk

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Medium confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Barnaul — 59%

1 · Barnaul ✓ Прогноз59.1%

market32%

2 · Novosibirsk40.9%

market68%

Model estimate: win Barnaul 59.1%, win Novosibirsk 40.9%. Model favourite — Barnaul.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Barnaul - Novosibirsk 15 июля 2026

Basketball math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Novosibirsk.

Line favourite Fonbet: Novosibirsk. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

Win odds (Fonbet): 1 2.90 / 2 1.35
Glicko: Barnaul 59.1% / Novosibirsk 40.9%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

Winner bookmaker margin 8.6%

1 ✓ Прогноз 31.8%

2 68.2%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

Победитель П1 1.55 ↓ 1.05

Победитель П2 2.30 ↑ 7.70

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

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Match center

Start 15.07.2026 06:00 MSK

Form 6 matches

H2H 3

Match center

Barnaul - Novosibirsk

В базе учтены недавние матчи обоих участников и 3 очных встреч.

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 3 head-to-head matches

Market 2 model / bookmakers

Flashscore match data source checked

Odds match data source checked

Bookiesapi match data source checked

Line depth match data source checked

Present in data

Market Form Match Participants H2H Line Movement Overview

More needed

Tournament Championat, Flashscore

Lineup / squad Championat, Injuries

Post-match / PropickAI database

Score 90:77

Events 0

Statistics 0

Lineups 0

Market and Glicko

Basketball math model. The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Barnaul 88.0% 59.1% market and model agree

Novosibirsk 12.0% 40.9%

1X2: 1 Bookies

Glicko-2 - рейтинговая модель силы: сравнивает линию, историю и стабильность, но не дает гарантий.

Basketball math model

P1 / P2 59.1% / 40.9% probabilities

Rating 1,367 / 1,258 Barnaul / Novosibirsk

RD 71 / 69 rating uncertainty

r +/- 2RD 1,225-1,508 / 1,120-1,396 strength interval

HFA: 65 HFA mu: 0.374 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: value не найден

The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 1.35 Fonbet · no value · model 40.9%

1 2.90 Fonbet · weak value +71.2% · model 59.1%

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.94 Fonbet · line only

2 +0.5 1.94 Fonbet · line only

1 -0.5 1.76 Fonbet · line only

1 +0.5 1.76 Fonbet · line only

Total

Over 176.5 1.80 Fonbet · line only

Over 177.5 2.05 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Открыть на Fonbet →

bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome	Fonbet
П2 +0.5	1.94 51.6%
П2 -0.5	1.94 51.6%
П2 -1.5	1.70 58.8%
П2 -10.5	1.80 55.6%
П2 -11.5	1.70 58.8%
П2 -12.5	1.58 63.3%
П2 -13.5	1.60 62.5%
П2 -14.5	1.80 55.6%
П2 -15.5	1.68 59.5%
П2 -16.5	1.60 62.5%
П2 -2.5	1.52 65.8%
П2 -3.5	1.55 64.5%
П2 -4.5	1.63 61.4%
П2 -5.5	1.48 67.6%
П2 -6.5	1.72 58.1%
П2 -7.5	1.58 63.3%
П2 -8.5	1.50 66.7%
П2 -9.5	2.03 49.3%

Total

Outcome	Fonbet
ТБ 176.5	1.80 55.6%
ТБ 177.5	2.05 48.8%
ТБ 178.5	1.68 59.5%
ТБ 179.5	1.87 53.5%
ТБ 180.5	2.07 48.3%
ТБ 181.5	2.35 42.6%
ТБ 182.5	2.00 50.0%
ТБ 183.5	2.23 44.8%
ТБ 184.5	2.50 40.0%
ТБ 185.5	1.83 54.6%
ТБ 186.5	1.95 51.3%
ТБ 187.5	2.15 46.5%
ТБ 188.5	2.40 41.7%
ТБ 189.5	2.25 44.4%
ТБ 190.5	2.20 45.5%
ТБ 191.5	1.95 51.3%
ТБ 192.5	1.67 59.9%
ТБ 193.5	1.63 61.4%

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome	Fonbet
П1	2.90 34.5%
П2	1.35 74.1%

Match center

Barnaul

W W W W L

13.07 10:00 МСК IPBL

Barnaul 111:102 Sochi

13.07 08:00 МСК IPBL

Barnaul 101:94 Sankt-Peterburg

13.07 06:00 МСК IPBL

Barnaul 98:92 Novosibirsk

10.07 10:00 МСК IPBL

Barnaul 89:83 Sochi

10.07 08:00 МСК IPBL

Barnaul 105:117 Sankt-Peterburg

4 Wins

1 Losses

100.8 Scored

97.6 Conceded

80% Win percentage

Novosibirsk

L L L L L

13.07 11:00 МСК IPBL

Novosibirsk 107:108 Sankt-Peterburg

13.07 09:00 МСК IPBL

Novosibirsk 86:107 Sochi

13.07 06:00 МСК IPBL

Novosibirsk 92:98 Barnaul

10.07 11:00 МСК IPBL

Novosibirsk 107:122 Sankt-Peterburg

10.07 09:00 МСК IPBL

Novosibirsk 70:109 Sochi

0 Wins

5 Losses

92.4 Scored

108.8 Conceded

0% Win percentage

Match center

Full head-to-head historyBarnaul - Novosibirsk

Barnaul

3 matches total

Novosibirsk

Barnaul: 2 (66.7%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Novosibirsk: 1 (33.3%)

Biggest win Barnaul 98:92 (13.07 06:00 МСК) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 194 goals (96:98, 08.07 06:00 МСК) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

13.07 06:00 МСК IPBL

Barnaul

98:92

Novosibirsk

10.07 06:00 МСК IPBL

Barnaul

87:84

Novosibirsk

08.07 06:00 МСК IPBL

Barnaul

96:98

Novosibirsk