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IPBL
IPBL International
13.07.2026 07:00 MSK Match prediction
13.07.2026 07:00 MSK
Finished

IPBL

Barnaul - Sochi

International Basketball
Barnaul
Barnaul
111 : 102
Finished
Sochi
Sochi
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Medium confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

2 Sochi — 59%

1 · Barnaul41.3%
market15%
2 · Sochi ✓ Прогноз58.7%
market85%

Model estimate: win Barnaul 41.3%, win Sochi 58.7%. Model favourite — Sochi.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Barnaul - Sochi 13 июля 2026

Basketball math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Sochi.

Line favourite Fonbet: Sochi. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 6.10 / 2 1.09
  • Glicko: Barnaul 41.3% / Sochi 58.7%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 8.1%
1 15.2%
2 ✓ Прогноз 84.8%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Победитель П1 3.55 ↑ 6.10
Победитель П2 1.25 ↓ 1.09

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 13.07.2026 10:00 MSK
Form 6 matches
H2H 3
Match center

Barnaul - Sochi

В базе учтены недавние матчи обоих участников и 3 очных встреч.

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 2 head-to-head matches
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Flashscore match data source checked
Odds match data source checked
Bookiesapi match data source checked
Line depth match data source checked
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants H2H Line Movement Overview
More needed
Tournament Championat, Flashscore
Lineup / squad Championat, Injuries
Post-match / PropickAI database
Score 111:102
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
Market and Glicko

Basketball math model. The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Barnaul 15.2% 41.3%
Sochi 84.8% 58.7% market and model agree
1X2: 1 Bookies

Glicko-2 - рейтинговая модель силы: сравнивает линию, историю и стабильность, но не дает гарантий.

Basketball math model
P1 / P2 41.3% / 58.7% probabilities
Rating 1,329 / 1,560 Barnaul / Sochi
RD 71 / 74 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,187-1,472 / 1,413-1,708 strength interval
HFA: 65 HFA mu: 0.374 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: value не найден

The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.09 Fonbet · no value · model 58.7%
1 6.10 Fonbet · no value · model 41.3%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.77 Fonbet · line only
2 +0.5 1.77 Fonbet · line only
1 -0.5 1.93 Fonbet · line only
1 +0.5 1.93 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 189.5 1.65 Fonbet · line only
Over 190.5 1.62 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Открыть на Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Fonbet
П2 -0.5 1.77 56.5%
П2 -1.5 1.67 59.9%
П2 -10.5 1.60 62.5%
П2 -12.5 1.80 55.6%
П2 -13.5 2.65 37.7%
П2 -14.5 2.25 44.4%
П2 -15.5 1.93 51.8%
П2 -16.5 1.70 58.8%
П2 -17.5 1.52 65.8%
П2 -18.5 2.40 41.7%
П2 -19.5 2.10 47.6%
П2 -2.5 1.77 56.5%
П2 -20.5 1.85 54.1%
П2 -21.5 1.67 59.9%
П2 -22.5 1.52 65.8%
П2 -3.5 1.68 59.5%
П2 -4.5 1.72 58.1%
П2 -5.5 1.63 61.4%

Total

Outcome Fonbet
ТБ 189.5 1.65 60.6%
ТБ 190.5 1.62 61.7%
ТБ 191.5 1.70 58.8%
ТБ 192.5 1.77 56.5%
ТБ 193.5 1.68 59.5%
ТБ 194.5 1.62 61.7%
ТБ 195.5 1.63 61.4%
ТБ 196.5 1.65 60.6%
ТБ 197.5 1.72 58.1%
ТБ 198.5 1.83 54.6%
ТБ 199.5 1.62 61.7%
ТБ 200.5 1.70 58.8%
ТБ 201.5 1.80 55.6%
ТБ 202.5 1.90 52.6%
ТБ 203.5 1.63 61.4%
ТБ 204.5 1.48 67.6%
ТБ 205.5 1.63 61.4%
ТБ 206.5 1.80 55.6%

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Fonbet
П1 6.10 16.4%
П2 1.09 91.7%
Match center
Barnaul
W W W L W
13.07 05:00 UTC IPBL
Barnaul 101:94 Sankt-PeterburgSankt-Peterburg
13.07 03:00 UTC IPBL
Barnaul 98:92 NovosibirskNovosibirsk
10.07 07:00 UTC IPBL
Barnaul 89:83 Sochi
10.07 05:00 UTC IPBL
Barnaul 105:117 Sankt-PeterburgSankt-Peterburg
10.07 03:00 UTC IPBL
Barnaul 87:84 NovosibirskNovosibirsk
4 Wins
1 Losses
96.0 Scored
94.0 Conceded
80% Win percentage
Sochi
W W L W W
13.07 06:00 UTC IPBL
Sochi 107:86 NovosibirskNovosibirsk
13.07 04:00 UTC IPBL
Sochi 97:94 Sankt-PeterburgSankt-Peterburg
10.07 07:00 UTC IPBL
Sochi 83:89 Barnaul
10.07 06:00 UTC IPBL
Sochi 109:70 NovosibirskNovosibirsk
10.07 04:00 UTC IPBL
Sochi 103:85 Sankt-PeterburgSankt-Peterburg
4 Wins
1 Losses
99.8 Scored
84.8 Conceded
80% Win percentage
Match center

Full head-to-head historyBarnaul - Sochi

Barnaul
2 matches total
Sochi
Barnaul: 1 (50%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Sochi: 1 (50%)
Biggest win Sochi 109:125 (08.07 07:00 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 234 goals (109:125, 08.07 07:00 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

10.07 07:00 UTC IPBL
Barnaul
89:83
Sochi
08.07 07:00 UTC IPBL
Barnaul
109:125
Sochi