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IPBL
IPBL International
15.07.2026 11:10 MSK Match prediction
15.07.2026 11:10 MSK
Finished

IPBL

Essentuki - Irkutsk

International Basketball
Essentuki
Essentuki
120 : 118
Finished
Irkutsk
Irkutsk
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Medium confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Essentuki — 55%

1 · Essentuki ✓ Прогноз55.3%
2 · Irkutsk44.7%

Model estimate: win Essentuki 55.3%, win Irkutsk 44.7%. Model favourite — Essentuki.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Essentuki - Irkutsk 15 июля 2026

Basketball math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Essentuki.

Line favourite Fonbet: Essentuki. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 1.22 / 2 3.80
  • Glicko: Essentuki 55.3% / Irkutsk 44.7%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 8.3%
1 ✓ Прогноз 75.7%
2 24.3%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Победитель П1 2.07 ↓ 1.47
Победитель П2 1.67 ↑ 2.50

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 15.07.2026 11:10 MSK
Form 6 matches
H2H 3
Match center

Essentuki - Irkutsk

В базе учтены недавние матчи обоих участников и 3 очных встреч.

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 3 head-to-head matches
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Flashscore match data source checked
Odds match data source checked
Bookiesapi match data source checked
Line depth match data source checked
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants H2H Line Movement Overview
More needed
Tournament Championat, Flashscore
Lineup / squad Championat, Injuries
Post-match / PropickAI database
Score 120:118
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
Market and Glicko

Basketball math model. The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Essentuki 63.0% 55.3% market and model agree
Irkutsk 37.0% 44.7%
1X2: 1 Bookies

Glicko-2 - рейтинговая модель силы: сравнивает линию, историю и стабильность, но не дает гарантий.

Basketball math model
P1 / P2 55.3% / 44.7% probabilities
Rating 1,551 / 1,519 Essentuki / Irkutsk
RD 68 / 70 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,414-1,688 / 1,378-1,659 strength interval
HFA: 65 HFA mu: 0.374 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: value не найден

The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.80 Fonbet · no value · model 44.7%
1 1.22 Fonbet · no value · model 55.3%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.83 Fonbet · line only
2 +0.5 1.83 Fonbet · line only
1 -0.5 1.87 Fonbet · line only
1 +0.5 1.87 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 207.5 1.63 Fonbet · line only
Over 208.5 1.70 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Открыть на Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Fonbet
П2 +0.5 1.83 54.6%
П2 +1.5 1.52 65.8%
П2 +10.5 1.93 51.8%
П2 +11.5 2.05 48.8%
П2 +2.5 1.70 58.8%
П2 +3.5 1.90 52.6%
П2 +4.5 2.20 45.5%
П2 +5.5 2.55 39.2%
П2 +6.5 1.77 56.5%
П2 -0.5 1.83 54.6%
П2 -1.5 1.75 57.1%
П2 -2.5 1.70 58.8%
П2 -3.5 1.57 63.7%
П2 -4.5 1.58 63.3%
П2 -5.5 1.52 65.8%
П2 -6.5 1.75 57.1%
П2 -7.5 1.63 61.4%
П2 -8.5 1.62 61.7%

Total

Outcome Fonbet
ТБ 207.5 1.63 61.4%
ТБ 208.5 1.70 58.8%
ТБ 209.5 1.77 56.5%
ТБ 210.5 1.85 54.1%
ТБ 211.5 1.93 51.8%
ТБ 212.5 1.67 59.9%
ТБ 213.5 1.75 57.1%
ТБ 214.5 1.83 54.6%
ТБ 215.5 1.90 52.6%
ТБ 216.5 2.00 50.0%
ТБ 217.5 2.10 47.6%
ТБ 220.5 1.68 59.5%
ТБ 221.5 1.75 57.1%
ТБ 222.5 1.83 54.6%
ТБ 223.5 1.67 59.9%
ТБ 224.5 1.75 57.1%
ТБ 225.5 1.83 54.6%
ТБ 226.5 1.93 51.8%

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Fonbet
П1 1.22 82.0%
П2 3.80 26.3%
Match center
Essentuki
W W L W W
15.07 09:10 МСК IPBL
Essentuki 124:123 Kemerovo
15.07 06:10 МСК IPBL
Essentuki 127:125 Asbest
13.07 11:10 МСК IPBL
Essentuki 103:115 Irkutsk
13.07 09:10 МСК IPBL
Essentuki 121:119 Kemerovo
13.07 06:10 МСК IPBL
Essentuki 126:123 Asbest
4 Wins
1 Losses
120.2 Scored
121.0 Conceded
80% Win percentage
Irkutsk
L L W L W
15.07 08:10 МСК IPBL
Irkutsk 110:114 Asbest
15.07 07:10 МСК IPBL
Irkutsk 120:123 Kemerovo
13.07 11:10 МСК IPBL
Irkutsk 115:103 Essentuki
13.07 08:10 МСК IPBL
Irkutsk 117:119 Asbest
13.07 07:10 МСК IPBL
Irkutsk 125:117 Kemerovo
2 Wins
3 Losses
117.4 Scored
115.2 Conceded
40% Win percentage
Match center

Full head-to-head historyEssentuki - Irkutsk

Essentuki
3 matches total
Irkutsk
Essentuki: 1 (33.3%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Irkutsk: 2 (66.7%)
Biggest win Irkutsk 89:105 (09.07 11:10 МСК) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 237 goals (119:118, 07.07 11:15 МСК) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

13.07 11:10 МСК IPBL
Essentuki
103:115
Irkutsk
09.07 11:10 МСК IPBL
Essentuki
89:105
Irkutsk
07.07 11:15 МСК IPBL
Essentuki
119:118
Irkutsk