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IPBL
IPBL International
15.07.2026 09:10 MSK Match prediction
15.07.2026 09:10 MSK
Finished

IPBL

Essentuki - Kemerovo

International Basketball
Essentuki
Essentuki
124 : 123
Finished
Kemerovo
Kemerovo
🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Essentuki — 51%

1 · Essentuki51.0%
2 · Kemerovo49.0%

Model estimate: win Essentuki 51.0%, win Kemerovo 49.0%. Model favourite — Essentuki.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Essentuki - Kemerovo 15 июля 2026

Basketball math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Kemerovo.

Line favourite Fonbet: Kemerovo. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 4.50 / 2 1.16
  • Glicko: Essentuki 51.0% / Kemerovo 49.0%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 8.4%
1 20.5%
2 79.5%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Победитель П1 1.90 ↑ 2.80
Победитель П2 1.80 ↓ 1.38

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 15.07.2026 09:10 MSK
Form 6 matches
H2H 3
Match center

Essentuki - Kemerovo

В базе учтены недавние матчи обоих участников и 3 очных встреч.

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 3 head-to-head matches
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Flashscore match data source checked
Odds match data source checked
Bookiesapi match data source checked
Line depth match data source checked
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants H2H Line Movement Overview
More needed
Tournament Championat, Flashscore
Lineup / squad Championat, Injuries
Post-match / PropickAI database
Score 124:123
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
Market and Glicko

Basketball math model. The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Essentuki 33.0% 51.0% Glicko-противоход
Kemerovo 67.0% 49.0% market favourite
1X2: 1 Bookies

Glicko-2 - рейтинговая модель силы: сравнивает линию, историю и стабильность, но не дает гарантий.

Basketball math model
P1 / P2 51.0% / 49.0% probabilities
Rating 1,551 / 1,599 Essentuki / Kemerovo
RD 68 / 68 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,414-1,688 / 1,462-1,735 strength interval
HFA: 65 HFA mu: 0.374 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: value не найден

The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.16 Fonbet · no value · model 49.0%
1 4.50 Fonbet · weak value +129.4% · model 51.0%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.65 Fonbet · line only
2 +0.5 1.50 Fonbet · line only
1 -0.5 2.10 Fonbet · line only
1 +0.5 2.40 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 208.5 1.67 Fonbet · line only
Over 209.5 1.50 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Открыть на Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Fonbet
П2 +0.5 1.50 66.7%
П2 +1.5 1.65 60.6%
П2 +10.5 1.87 53.5%
П2 +11.5 2.00 50.0%
П2 +12.5 2.10 47.6%
П2 -0.5 1.65 60.6%
П2 -1.5 1.95 51.3%
П2 -10.5 1.52 65.8%
П2 -11.5 1.57 63.7%
П2 -12.5 1.60 62.5%
П2 -2.5 1.83 54.6%
П2 -3.5 1.70 58.8%
П2 -4.5 1.65 60.6%
П2 -5.5 1.75 57.1%
П2 -6.5 1.63 61.4%
П2 -7.5 1.63 61.4%
П2 -8.5 1.75 57.1%
П2 -9.5 1.62 61.7%

Total

Outcome Fonbet
ТБ 208.5 1.67 59.9%
ТБ 209.5 1.50 66.7%
ТБ 210.5 1.65 60.6%
ТБ 211.5 1.50 66.7%
ТБ 212.5 1.65 60.6%
ТБ 213.5 1.83 54.6%
ТБ 214.5 2.05 48.8%
ТБ 215.5 2.35 42.6%
ТБ 216.5 2.70 37.0%
ТБ 217.5 2.30 43.5%
ТБ 218.5 2.13 47.0%
ТБ 219.5 2.10 47.6%
ТБ 220.5 2.25 44.4%
ТБ 221.5 2.20 45.5%
ТБ 222.5 2.03 49.3%
ТБ 223.5 2.03 49.3%
ТБ 225.5 1.65 60.6%
ТБ 226.5 1.72 58.1%

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Fonbet
П1 4.50 22.2%
П2 1.16 86.2%
Match center
Essentuki
W L W W W
15.07 06:10 МСК IPBL
Essentuki 127:125 Asbest
13.07 11:10 МСК IPBL
Essentuki 103:115 Irkutsk
13.07 09:10 МСК IPBL
Essentuki 121:119 Kemerovo
13.07 06:10 МСК IPBL
Essentuki 126:123 Asbest
10.07 09:10 МСК IPBL
Essentuki 132:129 Kemerovo
4 Wins
1 Losses
121.8 Scored
122.2 Conceded
80% Win percentage
Kemerovo
W W L L L
15.07 07:10 МСК IPBL
Kemerovo 123:120 Irkutsk
13.07 10:10 МСК IPBL
Kemerovo 126:120 Asbest
13.07 09:10 МСК IPBL
Kemerovo 119:121 Essentuki
13.07 07:10 МСК IPBL
Kemerovo 117:125 Irkutsk
10.07 09:10 МСК IPBL
Kemerovo 129:132 Essentuki
2 Wins
3 Losses
122.8 Scored
123.6 Conceded
40% Win percentage
Match center

Full head-to-head historyEssentuki - Kemerovo

Essentuki
3 matches total
Kemerovo
Essentuki: 3 (100%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Kemerovo: 0 (0%)
Biggest win Essentuki 118:114 (08.07 09:10 МСК) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 261 goals (132:129, 10.07 09:10 МСК) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

13.07 09:10 МСК IPBL
Essentuki
121:119
Kemerovo
10.07 09:10 МСК IPBL
Essentuki
132:129
Kemerovo
08.07 09:10 МСК IPBL
Essentuki
118:114
Kemerovo