IPBL International

15.07.2026 20:05 MSK Match prediction

15.07.2026 20:05 MSK

Finished

IPBL

Ivanovo (zh) - Penza (zh)

International Basketball

Ivanovo (zh)

91 : 85

Finished

Penza (zh)

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Medium confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Ivanovo (zh) — 55%

1 · Ivanovo (zh) ✓ Прогноз55.4%

2 · Penza (zh)44.6%

Model estimate: win Ivanovo (zh) 55.4%, win Penza (zh) 44.6%. Model favourite — Ivanovo (zh).

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Ivanovo (zh) - Penza (zh) 15 июля 2026

Basketball math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Ivanovo (zh).

Line favourite Fonbet: Ivanovo (zh). We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

Win odds (Fonbet): 1 1.07 / 2 6.80
Glicko: Ivanovo (zh) 55.4% / Penza (zh) 44.6%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

Winner bookmaker margin 8.2%

1 ✓ Прогноз 86.4%

2 13.6%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

Победитель П1 1.23 ↓ 1.07

Победитель П2 3.70 ↑ 6.80

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

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Match center

Start 15.07.2026 20:05 MSK

Form 6 matches

H2H 2

Match center

Ivanovo (zh) - Penza (zh)

В базе учтены недавние матчи обоих участников и 2 очных встреч.

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 2 head-to-head matches

Market 2 model / bookmakers

Flashscore match data source checked

Odds match data source checked

Bookiesapi match data source checked

Line depth match data source checked

Present in data

Market Form Match Participants H2H Line Movement Overview

More needed

Tournament Championat, Flashscore

Lineup / squad Championat, Injuries

Post-match / PropickAI database

Score 91:85

Events 0

Statistics 0

Lineups 0

Market and Glicko

Basketball math model. The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Ivanovo (zh) 86.4% 55.4% market and model agree

Penza (zh) 13.6% 44.6%

1X2: 1 Bookies

Glicko-2 - рейтинговая модель силы: сравнивает линию, историю и стабильность, но не дает гарантий.

Basketball math model

P1 / P2 55.4% / 44.6% probabilities

Rating 1,769 / 1,728 Ivanovo (zh) / Penza (zh)

RD 142 / 151 rating uncertainty

r +/- 2RD 1,486-2,052 / 1,426-2,030 strength interval

HFA: 65 HFA mu: 0.374 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: value не найден

The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 6.80 Fonbet · no value · model 44.6%

1 1.07 Fonbet · no value · model 55.4%

Handicap

2 -0.5 2.40 Fonbet · line only

1 -0.5 1.50 Fonbet · line only

Total

Over 163.5 1.48 Fonbet · line only

Over 164.5 1.60 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Открыть на Fonbet →

bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome	Fonbet
П1 -0.5	1.50 66.7%
П1 -1.5	1.63 61.4%
П1 -10.5	2.23 44.8%
П1 -11.5	1.93 51.8%
П1 -12.5	2.03 49.3%
П2 -0.5	2.40 41.7%
П2 -1.5	2.13 47.0%
П2 -10.5	1.58 63.3%
П2 -11.5	1.77 56.5%
П2 -12.5	1.70 58.8%
П2 -2.5	2.40 41.7%
П2 -3.5	2.10 47.6%
П2 -4.5	1.83 54.6%
П2 -5.5	1.68 59.5%
П2 -6.5	2.00 50.0%
П2 -7.5	1.72 58.1%
П2 -8.5	1.60 62.5%
П2 -9.5	1.68 59.5%

Total

Outcome	Fonbet
ТБ 163.5	1.48 67.6%
ТБ 164.5	1.60 62.5%
ТБ 165.5	1.75 57.1%
ТБ 166.5	1.90 52.6%
ТБ 167.5	1.48 67.6%
ТБ 168.5	1.63 61.4%
ТБ 169.5	1.83 54.6%
ТБ 170.5	2.05 48.8%
ТБ 171.5	2.35 42.6%
ТБ 172.5	1.76 56.8%
ТБ 173.5	2.00 50.0%
ТБ 174.5	2.15 46.5%
ТБ 175.5	2.35 42.6%
ТБ 176.5	2.00 50.0%
ТБ 177.5	2.20 45.5%
ТБ 178.5	2.35 42.6%
ТБ 179.5	1.93 51.8%
ТБ 180.5	2.07 48.3%

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome	Fonbet
П1	1.07 93.5%
П2	6.80 14.7%

Match center

Ivanovo (zh)

W W W L W

15.07 18:00 МСК IPBL

Ivanovo (zh) 87:78 Kostroma (zh)

11.07 20:05 МСК IPBL

Ivanovo (zh) 98:85 Penza (zh)

11.07 18:00 МСК IPBL

Ivanovo (zh) 91:78 Kostroma (zh)

08.07 20:05 МСК IPBL

Ivanovo (zh) 72:78 Penza (zh)

08.07 18:00 МСК IPBL

Ivanovo (zh) 66:59 Kostroma (zh)

4 Wins

1 Losses

82.8 Scored

75.6 Conceded

80% Win percentage

Penza (zh)

W L W W W

15.07 19:00 МСК IPBL

Penza (zh) 91:79 Staryy Oskol (zh)

11.07 20:05 МСК IPBL

Penza (zh) 85:98 Ivanovo (zh)

11.07 19:00 МСК IPBL

Penza (zh) 87:68 Staryy Oskol (zh)

08.07 20:05 МСК IPBL

Penza (zh) 78:72 Ivanovo (zh)

08.07 19:00 МСК IPBL

Penza (zh) 105:83 Staryy Oskol (zh)

4 Wins

1 Losses

89.2 Scored

80.0 Conceded

80% Win percentage

Match center

Full head-to-head historyIvanovo (zh) - Penza (zh)

Ivanovo (zh)

2 matches total

Penza (zh)

Ivanovo (zh): 1 (50%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Penza (zh): 1 (50%)

Biggest win Ivanovo (zh) 98:85 (11.07 20:05 МСК) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 183 goals (98:85, 11.07 20:05 МСК) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

11.07 20:05 МСК IPBL

Ivanovo (zh)

98:85

Penza (zh)

08.07 20:05 МСК IPBL

Ivanovo (zh)

72:78

Penza (zh)