IPBL International

15.07.2026 19:00 MSK Match prediction

15.07.2026 19:00 MSK

Finished

IPBL

Kaliningrad - Moscow

International Basketball

Kaliningrad

102 : 90

Finished

Moscow

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Medium confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Kaliningrad — 57%

1 · Kaliningrad ✓ Прогноз56.5%

2 · Moscow43.5%

Model estimate: win Kaliningrad 56.5%, win Moscow 43.5%. Model favourite — Kaliningrad.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Kaliningrad - Moscow 15 июля 2026

Basketball math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Kaliningrad.

Line favourite Fonbet: Kaliningrad. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

Win odds (Fonbet): 1 1.03 / 2 9.00
Glicko: Kaliningrad 56.5% / Moscow 43.5%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

Winner bookmaker margin 8.2%

1 ✓ Прогноз 89.7%

2 10.3%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

Победитель П1 1.55 ↑ 1.83

Победитель П2 2.30 ↓ 1.87

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

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Match center

Start 15.07.2026 19:00 MSK

Form 6 matches

H2H 3

Match center

Kaliningrad - Moscow

В базе учтены недавние матчи обоих участников и 3 очных встреч.

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 3 head-to-head matches

Market 2 model / bookmakers

Flashscore match data source checked

Odds match data source checked

Bookiesapi match data source checked

Line depth match data source checked

Present in data

Market Form Match Participants H2H Line Movement Overview

More needed

Tournament Championat, Flashscore

Lineup / squad Championat, Injuries

Post-match / PropickAI database

Score 102:90

Events 0

Statistics 0

Lineups 0

Market and Glicko

Basketball math model. The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Kaliningrad 50.5% 56.5% market and model agree

Moscow 49.5% 43.5%

1X2: 1 Bookies

Glicko-2 - рейтинговая модель силы: сравнивает линию, историю и стабильность, но не дает гарантий.

Basketball math model

P1 / P2 56.5% / 43.5% probabilities

Rating 1,484 / 1,428 Kaliningrad / Moscow

RD 76 / 76 rating uncertainty

r +/- 2RD 1,331-1,636 / 1,276-1,579 strength interval

HFA: 65 HFA mu: 0.374 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: P1 | odds 1.83 | edge 6.0% | ROI 3.4% | BetBoom

The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 9.00 Fonbet · no value · model 43.5%

1 1.03 Fonbet · no value · model 56.5%

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.70 Fonbet · line only

2 +0.5 1.70 Fonbet · line only

1 -0.5 2.03 Fonbet · line only

1 +0.5 2.03 Fonbet · line only

Total

Over 170.5 1.57 Fonbet · line only

Over 171.5 1.67 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Открыть на Fonbet →

bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome	Fonbet
П2 +0.5	1.70 58.8%
П2 +1.5	1.83 54.6%
П2 +2.5	1.95 51.3%
П2 -0.5	1.70 58.8%
П2 -1.5	2.30 43.5%
П2 -10.5	2.25 44.4%
П2 -11.5	1.95 51.3%
П2 -12.5	1.75 57.1%
П2 -13.5	1.57 63.7%
П2 -14.5	1.43 69.9%
П2 -2.5	2.07 48.3%
П2 -3.5	1.90 52.6%
П2 -4.5	1.75 57.1%
П2 -5.5	2.30 43.5%
П2 -6.5	1.95 51.3%
П2 -7.5	2.05 48.8%
П2 -8.5	2.20 45.5%
П2 -9.5	1.93 51.8%

Total

Outcome	Fonbet
ТБ 170.5	1.57 63.7%
ТБ 171.5	1.67 59.9%
ТБ 172.5	1.58 63.3%
ТБ 173.5	1.62 61.7%
ТБ 174.5	1.72 58.1%
ТБ 175.5	1.83 54.6%
ТБ 176.5	1.95 51.3%
ТБ 177.5	2.10 47.6%
ТБ 178.5	1.57 63.7%
ТБ 179.5	1.57 63.7%
ТБ 180.5	1.67 59.9%
ТБ 181.5	1.80 55.6%
ТБ 182.5	1.93 51.8%
ТБ 183.5	1.55 64.5%
ТБ 184.5	1.67 59.9%
ТБ 185.5	1.80 55.6%
ТБ 186.5	1.93 51.8%
ТБ 187.5	1.52 65.8%

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome	Fonbet
П1	1.03 97.1%
П2	9.00 11.1%

Match center

Kaliningrad

L W L L L

12.07 23:00 МСК IPBL

Kaliningrad 82:102 Plavsk

12.07 21:00 МСК IPBL

Kaliningrad 94:91 Voronezh

12.07 19:00 МСК IPBL

Kaliningrad 81:100 Moskva

10.07 23:00 МСК IPBL

Kaliningrad 75:89 Plavsk

10.07 21:00 МСК IPBL

Kaliningrad 92:106 Voronezh

1 Wins

4 Losses

84.8 Scored

97.6 Conceded

20% Win percentage

Moscow

W L W L L

12.07 22:00 МСК IPBL

Moscow 92:87 Voronezh

12.07 20:00 МСК IPBL

Moscow 83:90 Plavsk

12.07 19:00 МСК IPBL

Moscow 100:81 Kaliningrad

10.07 22:00 МСК IPBL

Moscow 83:89 Voronezh

10.07 20:00 МСК IPBL

Moscow 96:106 Plavsk

2 Wins

3 Losses

90.8 Scored

90.6 Conceded

40% Win percentage

Match center

Full head-to-head historyKaliningrad - Moscow

Kaliningrad

3 matches total

Moscow

Kaliningrad: 2 (66.7%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Moscow: 1 (33.3%)

Biggest win Kaliningrad 109:88 (08.07 19:00 МСК) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 197 goals (109:88, 08.07 19:00 МСК) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

12.07 19:00 МСК IPBL

Kaliningrad

81:100

Moskva

10.07 19:00 МСК IPBL

Kaliningrad

93:88

Moskva

08.07 19:00 МСК IPBL

Kaliningrad

109:88

Moskva