IPBL International

14.07.2026 19:00 MSK Match prediction

14.07.2026 19:00 MSK

Finished

IPBL

Murino (zh) - Norilsk (zh)

International Basketball

Murino (zh)

81 : 62

Finished

Norilsk (zh)

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Medium confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Norilsk (zh) — 55%

1 · Murino (zh)44.8%

2 · Norilsk (zh) ✓ Прогноз55.2%

Model estimate: win Murino (zh) 44.8%, win Norilsk (zh) 55.2%. Model favourite — Norilsk (zh).

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Murino (zh) - Norilsk (zh) 14 июля 2026

Basketball math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Murino (zh).

Line favourite Fonbet: Murino (zh). We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

Win odds (Fonbet): 1 1.04 / 2 8.50
Glicko: Murino (zh) 44.8% / Norilsk (zh) 55.2%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

Winner bookmaker margin 7.9%

1 89.1%

2 ✓ Прогноз 10.9%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

Победитель П1 1.52 ↓ 1.30

Победитель П2 2.35 ↑ 3.20

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

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Match center

Start 14.07.2026 19:00 MSK

Form 6 matches

H2H 3

Match center

Murino (zh) - Norilsk (zh)

В базе учтены недавние матчи обоих участников и 3 очных встреч.

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 3 head-to-head matches

Market 2 model / bookmakers

Flashscore match data source checked

Odds match data source checked

Bookiesapi match data source checked

Line depth match data source checked

Present in data

Market Form Match Participants H2H Line Movement Overview

More needed

Tournament Championat, Flashscore

Lineup / squad Championat, Injuries

Post-match / PropickAI database

Score 81:62

Events 0

Statistics 0

Lineups 0

Market and Glicko

Basketball math model. The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Murino (zh) 71.1% 44.8% market favourite

Norilsk (zh) 28.9% 55.2% Glicko-противоход

1X2: 1 Bookies

Glicko-2 - рейтинговая модель силы: сравнивает линию, историю и стабильность, но не дает гарантий.

Basketball math model

P1 / P2 44.8% / 55.2% probabilities

Rating 1,328 / 1,489 Murino (zh) / Norilsk (zh)

RD 83 / 82 rating uncertainty

r +/- 2RD 1,162-1,494 / 1,325-1,652 strength interval

HFA: 65 HFA mu: 0.374 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: value не найден

The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 8.50 Fonbet · weak value +369.1% · model 55.2%

1 1.04 Fonbet · no value · model 44.8%

Handicap

2 -0.5 2.10 Fonbet · line only

2 +0.5 1.75 Fonbet · line only

1 -0.5 1.65 Fonbet · line only

1 +0.5 1.95 Fonbet · line only

Total

Over 132.5 1.47 Fonbet · line only

Over 133.5 1.58 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Открыть на Fonbet →

bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome	Fonbet
П2 -0.5	2.10 47.6%
П2 -1.5	1.95 51.3%
П2 -10.5	1.65 60.6%
П2 -11.5	1.50 66.7%
П2 -12.5	1.62 61.7%
П2 -13.5	1.62 61.7%
П2 -14.5	2.15 46.5%
П2 -15.5	1.77 56.5%
П2 -16.5	1.90 52.6%
П2 -17.5	1.65 60.6%
П2 -2.5	1.85 54.1%
П2 -3.5	2.05 48.8%
П2 -4.5	2.13 47.0%
П2 -5.5	2.10 47.6%
П2 -6.5	1.95 51.3%
П2 -7.5	2.52 39.7%
П2 -8.5	2.13 47.0%
П2 -9.5	1.87 53.5%

Total

Outcome	Fonbet
ТБ 132.5	1.47 68.0%
ТБ 133.5	1.58 63.3%
ТБ 134.5	1.52 65.8%
ТБ 135.5	1.65 60.6%
ТБ 136.5	1.80 55.6%
ТБ 137.5	1.43 69.9%
ТБ 138.5	1.57 63.7%
ТБ 139.5	1.76 56.8%
ТБ 140.5	2.00 50.0%
ТБ 141.5	1.76 56.8%
ТБ 142.5	2.05 48.8%
ТБ 143.5	2.25 44.4%
ТБ 144.5	2.55 39.2%
ТБ 145.5	2.52 39.7%
ТБ 146.5	1.90 52.6%
ТБ 147.5	2.07 48.3%
ТБ 148.5	2.25 44.4%
ТБ 149.5	2.10 47.6%

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome	Fonbet
П1	1.04 96.2%
П2	8.50 11.8%

Match center

Murino (zh)

L L L W L

13.07 21:00 МСК IPBL

Murino (zh) 71:94 VladiEast (zh)

12.07 21:00 МСК IPBL

Murino (zh) 84:89 Kaluga (zh)

12.07 19:00 МСК IPBL

Murino (zh) 73:82 Norilsk (zh)

10.07 20:05 МСК IPBL

Murino (zh) 91:83 Kaluga (zh)

09.07 21:00 МСК IPBL

Murino (zh) 75:83 VladiEast (zh)

1 Wins

4 Losses

78.8 Scored

86.2 Conceded

20% Win percentage

Norilsk (zh)

L L W W W

13.07 20:05 МСК IPBL

Norilsk (zh) 98:105 Kaluga (zh)

12.07 20:05 МСК IPBL

Norilsk (zh) 91:102 VladiEast (zh)

12.07 19:00 МСК IPBL

Norilsk (zh) 82:73 Murino (zh)

10.07 21:00 МСК IPBL

Norilsk (zh) 105:90 VladiEast (zh)

09.07 19:00 МСК IPBL

Norilsk (zh) 93:72 Murino (zh)

3 Wins

2 Losses

93.8 Scored

88.4 Conceded

60% Win percentage

Match center

Full head-to-head historyMurino (zh) - Norilsk (zh)

Murino (zh)

3 matches total

Norilsk (zh)

Murino (zh): 0 (0%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Norilsk (zh): 3 (100%)

Biggest win Norilsk (zh) 72:93 (09.07 19:00 МСК) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 165 goals (72:93, 09.07 19:00 МСК) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

12.07 19:00 МСК IPBL

Murino (zh)

73:82

Norilsk (zh)

09.07 19:00 МСК IPBL

Murino (zh)

72:93

Norilsk (zh)

07.07 19:00 МСК IPBL

Murino (zh)

62:71

Norilsk (zh)