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IPBL
IPBL International
15.07.2026 09:00 MSK Match prediction
15.07.2026 09:00 MSK
Finished

IPBL

Novosibirsk - Sochi

International Basketball
Novosibirsk
Novosibirsk
98 : 105
Finished
Sochi
Sochi
🎯 PropickAI prediction
High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

2 Sochi — 61%

1 · Novosibirsk39.4%
market26%
2 · Sochi ✓ Прогноз60.6%
market74%

Model estimate: win Novosibirsk 39.4%, win Sochi 60.6%. Model favourite — Sochi.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Novosibirsk - Sochi 15 июля 2026

Basketball math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Sochi.

Line favourite Fonbet: Sochi. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 3.55 / 2 1.25
  • Glicko: Novosibirsk 39.4% / Sochi 60.6%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 8.2%
1 26.0%
2 ✓ Прогноз 74.0%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Победитель П1 2.40 ↑ 4.30
Победитель П2 1.50 ↓ 1.18

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 15.07.2026 09:00 MSK
Form 6 matches
H2H 3
Match center

Novosibirsk - Sochi

В базе учтены недавние матчи обоих участников и 3 очных встреч.

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 3 head-to-head matches
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Flashscore match data source checked
Odds match data source checked
Bookiesapi match data source checked
Line depth match data source checked
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants H2H Line Movement Overview
More needed
Tournament Championat, Flashscore
Lineup / squad Championat, Injuries
Post-match / PropickAI database
Score 98:105
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
Market and Glicko

Basketball math model. The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Novosibirsk 21.5% 39.4%
Sochi 78.5% 60.6% market and model agree
1X2: 1 Bookies

Glicko-2 - рейтинговая модель силы: сравнивает линию, историю и стабильность, но не дает гарантий.

Basketball math model
P1 / P2 39.4% / 60.6% probabilities
Rating 1,245 / 1,520 Novosibirsk / Sochi
RD 69 / 73 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,107-1,382 / 1,374-1,667 strength interval
HFA: 65 HFA mu: 0.374 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: value не найден

The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.25 Fonbet · no value · model 60.6%
1 3.55 Fonbet · no value · model 39.4%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.85 Fonbet · line only
2 +0.5 1.65 Fonbet · line only
1 -0.5 1.85 Fonbet · line only
1 +0.5 2.10 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 181.5 1.60 Fonbet · line only
Over 182.5 1.68 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Открыть на Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Fonbet
П2 +0.5 1.65 60.6%
П2 +1.5 1.72 58.1%
П2 +10.5 1.80 55.6%
П2 +11.5 1.95 51.3%
П2 +12.5 2.13 47.0%
П2 +13.5 2.23 44.8%
П2 +14.5 2.13 47.0%
П2 +15.5 1.95 51.3%
П2 +16.5 2.10 47.6%
П2 +2.5 1.70 58.8%
П2 +3.5 1.45 69.0%
П2 +4.5 2.00 50.0%
П2 +5.5 1.70 58.8%
П2 +6.5 2.00 50.0%
П2 -0.5 1.85 54.1%
П2 -1.5 1.90 52.6%
П2 -2.5 1.83 54.6%
П2 -3.5 1.72 58.1%

Total

Outcome Fonbet
ТБ 181.5 1.60 62.5%
ТБ 182.5 1.68 59.5%
ТБ 183.5 1.77 56.5%
ТБ 184.5 1.62 61.7%
ТБ 185.5 1.72 58.1%
ТБ 186.5 1.58 63.3%
ТБ 187.5 1.68 59.5%
ТБ 188.5 1.77 56.5%
ТБ 189.5 1.90 52.6%
ТБ 190.5 2.03 49.3%
ТБ 191.5 2.15 46.5%
ТБ 192.5 1.43 69.9%
ТБ 193.5 1.58 63.3%
ТБ 194.5 1.77 56.5%
ТБ 195.5 2.00 50.0%
ТБ 196.5 1.68 59.5%
ТБ 197.5 1.80 55.6%
ТБ 198.5 2.07 48.3%

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Fonbet
П1 3.55 28.2%
П2 1.25 80.0%
Match center
Novosibirsk
L L L L L
15.07 06:00 МСК IPBL
Novosibirsk 77:90 Barnaul
13.07 11:00 МСК IPBL
Novosibirsk 107:108 Sankt-PeterburgSankt-Peterburg
13.07 09:00 МСК IPBL
Novosibirsk 86:107 Sochi
13.07 06:00 МСК IPBL
Novosibirsk 92:98 Barnaul
10.07 11:00 МСК IPBL
Novosibirsk 107:122 Sankt-PeterburgSankt-Peterburg
0 Wins
5 Losses
93.8 Scored
105.0 Conceded
0% Win percentage
Sochi
W L W W L
15.07 07:00 МСК IPBL
Sochi 110:93 Sankt-PeterburgSankt-Peterburg
13.07 10:00 МСК IPBL
Sochi 102:111 Barnaul
13.07 09:00 МСК IPBL
Sochi 107:86 NovosibirskNovosibirsk
13.07 07:00 МСК IPBL
Sochi 97:94 Sankt-PeterburgSankt-Peterburg
10.07 10:00 МСК IPBL
Sochi 83:89 Barnaul
3 Wins
2 Losses
99.8 Scored
94.6 Conceded
60% Win percentage
Match center

Full head-to-head historyNovosibirsk - Sochi

Novosibirsk
3 matches total
Sochi
Novosibirsk: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Sochi: 3 (100%)
Biggest win Sochi 70:109 (10.07 09:00 МСК) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 215 goals (95:120, 08.07 09:00 МСК) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

13.07 09:00 МСК IPBL
Novosibirsk
86:107
Sochi
10.07 09:00 МСК IPBL
Novosibirsk
70:109
Sochi
08.07 09:00 МСК IPBL
Novosibirsk
95:120
Sochi