IPBL International

16.07.2026 09:00 MSK Match prediction

16.07.2026 09:00 MSK

Finished

IPBL

Orenburg (w) - Vologda (w)

International Basketball

Orenburg (w)

78 : 87

Finished

Vologda (w)

🎯 PropickAI prediction

High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

2 Vologda (w) — 60%

1 · Orenburg (w)39.8%

market41%

2 · Vologda (w) ✓ Прогноз60.2%

market59%

Model estimate: win Orenburg (w) 39.8%, win Vologda (w) 60.2%. Model favourite — Vologda (w).

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Orenburg (w) - Vologda (w) 16 июля 2026

Basketball math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Vologda (w).

Line favourite Fonbet: Vologda (w). We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

Win odds (Fonbet): 1 2.25 / 2 1.57
Glicko: Orenburg (w) 39.8% / Vologda (w) 60.2%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

Winner bookmaker margin 8.1%

1 41.1%

2 ✓ Прогноз 58.9%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

Победитель П1 1.70 ↓ 1.60

Победитель П2 2.03 ↑ 2.20

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

Buy the full AI analysis

Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: 100 RUB

Payment via YooKassa. After payment we will redirect you to a private link with the prediction.

Match center

Start 16.07.2026 09:00 MSK

Form 6 matches

H2H 2

Match center

Orenburg (w) - Vologda (w)

В базе учтены недавние матчи обоих участников и 2 очных встреч.

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 2 head-to-head matches

Market 2 model / bookmakers

Flashscore match data source checked

Odds match data source checked

Bookiesapi match data source checked

Line depth match data source checked

Present in data

Market Form Match Participants H2H Line Movement Overview

More needed

Tournament Championat, Flashscore

Lineup / squad Championat, Injuries

Post-match / PropickAI database

Score 78:87

Events 0

Statistics 0

Lineups 0

Market and Glicko

Basketball math model. The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Orenburg (w) 57.9% 39.8% market favourite

Vologda (w) 42.1% 60.2% Glicko-противоход

1X2: 1 Bookies

Glicko-2 - рейтинговая модель силы: сравнивает линию, историю и стабильность, но не дает гарантий.

Basketball math model

P1 / P2 39.8% / 60.2% probabilities

Rating 1,248 / 1,656 Orenburg (w) / Vologda (w)

RD 168 / 200 rating uncertainty

r +/- 2RD 912-1,584 / 1,257-2,055 strength interval

HFA: 65 HFA mu: 0.374 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: value не найден

The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 1.57 Fonbet · no value · model 60.2%

1 2.25 Fonbet · no value · model 39.8%

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.93 Fonbet · line only

2 +0.5 1.80 Fonbet · line only

1 -0.5 1.77 Fonbet · line only

1 +0.5 1.90 Fonbet · line only

Total

Over 144.5 1.43 Fonbet · line only

Over 145.5 1.57 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Открыть на Fonbet →

bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome	Fonbet
П2 +0.5	1.80 55.6%
П2 +1.5	1.83 54.6%
П2 +2.5	1.65 60.6%
П2 +3.5	1.95 51.3%
П2 +4.5	1.95 51.3%
П2 -0.5	1.93 51.8%
П2 -1.5	1.55 64.5%
П2 -10.5	1.67 59.9%
П2 -11.5	1.63 61.4%
П2 -12.5	1.63 61.4%
П2 -2.5	2.30 43.5%
П2 -3.5	2.07 48.3%
П2 -4.5	1.85 54.1%
П2 -5.5	1.68 59.5%
П2 -6.5	1.55 64.5%
П2 -7.5	1.95 51.3%
П2 -8.5	1.85 54.1%
П2 -9.5	1.75 57.1%

Total

Outcome	Fonbet
ТБ 144.5	1.43 69.9%
ТБ 145.5	1.57 63.7%
ТБ 146.5	1.65 60.6%
ТБ 147.5	1.93 51.8%
ТБ 148.5	2.20 45.5%
ТБ 149.5	2.55 39.2%
ТБ 150.5	2.40 41.7%
ТБ 151.5	1.65 60.6%
ТБ 152.5	1.80 55.6%
ТБ 153.5	2.00 50.0%
ТБ 154.5	2.20 45.5%
ТБ 155.5	2.45 40.8%
ТБ 156.5	2.30 43.5%
ТБ 157.5	1.94 51.6%
ТБ 158.5	2.10 47.6%
ТБ 159.5	2.25 44.4%
ТБ 160.5	2.15 46.5%
ТМ 144.5	2.65 37.7%

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome	Fonbet
П1	2.25 44.4%
П2	1.57 63.7%

Match center

Orenburg (w)

L L L W W

16.07 06:00 МСК IPBL

Orenburg (w) 72:96 Northodvinsk (zh)

12.07 10:05 МСК IPBL

Orenburg (w) 85:90 Kursk (zh)

12.07 09:00 МСК IPBL

Orenburg (w) 76:82 Vologda (zh)

12.07 06:00 МСК IPBL

Orenburg (w) 73:61 Northodvinsk (zh)

09.07 10:05 МСК IPBL

Orenburg (w) 76:67 Kursk (zh)

2 Wins

3 Losses

76.4 Scored

79.2 Conceded

40% Win percentage

Vologda (w)

L W W L L

16.07 07:00 МСК IPBL

Vologda (w) 72:83 Kursk (zh)

12.07 11:00 МСК IPBL

Vologda (w) 86:74 Northodvinsk (zh)

12.07 09:00 МСК IPBL

Vologda (w) 82:76 Orenburg (zh)

12.07 07:00 МСК IPBL

Vologda (w) 68:84 Kursk (zh)

09.07 11:00 МСК IPBL

Vologda (w) 56:67 Northodvinsk (zh)

2 Wins

3 Losses

72.8 Scored

76.8 Conceded

40% Win percentage

Match center

Full head-to-head historyOrenburg (w) - Vologda (w)

Orenburg (w)

2 matches total

Vologda (w)

Orenburg (w): 0 (0%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Vologda (w): 2 (100%)

Biggest win Vologda (zh) 76:82 (12.07 09:00 МСК) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 158 goals (76:82, 12.07 09:00 МСК) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

12.07 09:00 МСК IPBL

Orenburg (zh)

76:82

Vologda (zh)

09.07 09:00 МСК IPBL

Orenburg (zh)

62:64

Vologda (zh)