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IPBL
IPBL International
14.07.2026 21:00 MSK Match prediction
14.07.2026 21:00 MSK
Finished

IPBL

Ryazan - Salavat

International Basketball
Ryazan
Ryazan
103 : 104
Finished
Salavat
Salavat
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Medium confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Salavat — 55%

1 · Ryazan45.0%
2 · Salavat ✓ Прогноз55.0%

Model estimate: win Ryazan 45.0%, win Salavat 55.0%. Model favourite — Salavat.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Ryazan - Salavat 14 июля 2026

Basketball math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Salavat.

Line favourite Fonbet: Salavat. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 2.85 / 2 1.37
  • Glicko: Ryazan 45.0% / Salavat 55.0%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 8.1%
1 32.5%
2 ✓ Прогноз 67.5%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Победитель П1 2.13 ↓ 1.40
Победитель П2 1.63 ↑ 2.70

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 14.07.2026 21:00 MSK
Form 6 matches
H2H 3
Match center

Ryazan - Salavat

В базе учтены недавние матчи обоих участников и 3 очных встреч.

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 3 head-to-head matches
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Flashscore match data source checked
Odds match data source checked
Bookiesapi match data source checked
Line depth match data source checked
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants H2H Line Movement Overview
More needed
Tournament Championat, Flashscore
Lineup / squad Championat, Injuries
Post-match / PropickAI database
Score 103:104
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
Market and Glicko

Basketball math model. The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Ryazan 65.9% 45.0% market favourite
Salavat 34.2% 55.0% Glicko-противоход
1X2: 1 Bookies

Glicko-2 - рейтинговая модель силы: сравнивает линию, историю и стабильность, но не дает гарантий.

Basketball math model
P1 / P2 45.0% / 55.0% probabilities
Rating 1,342 / 1,501 Ryazan / Salavat
RD 101 / 101 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,139-1,545 / 1,299-1,702 strength interval
HFA: 65 HFA mu: 0.374 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: value не найден

The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.37 Fonbet · no value · model 55.0%
1 2.85 Fonbet · no value · model 45.0%
Handicap
2 -0.5 2.00 Fonbet · line only
2 +0.5 2.00 Fonbet · line only
1 -0.5 1.72 Fonbet · line only
1 +0.5 1.72 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 184.5 1.50 Fonbet · line only
Over 185.5 1.62 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Открыть на Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Fonbet
П2 +0.5 2.00 50.0%
П2 +1.5 2.35 42.6%
П2 +2.5 2.00 50.0%
П2 +3.5 1.80 55.6%
П2 -0.5 2.00 50.0%
П2 -1.5 1.75 57.1%
П2 -10.5 1.70 58.8%
П2 -11.5 1.55 64.5%
П2 -12.5 1.77 56.5%
П2 -13.5 1.67 59.9%
П2 -2.5 1.55 64.5%
П2 -3.5 1.52 65.8%
П2 -4.5 2.35 42.6%
П2 -5.5 2.10 47.6%
П2 -6.5 1.90 52.6%
П2 -7.5 2.30 43.5%
П2 -8.5 2.05 48.8%
П2 -9.5 1.87 53.5%

Total

Outcome Fonbet
ТБ 184.5 1.50 66.7%
ТБ 185.5 1.62 61.7%
ТБ 186.5 1.75 57.1%
ТБ 187.5 1.90 52.6%
ТБ 188.5 1.46 68.5%
ТБ 189.5 1.58 63.3%
ТБ 190.5 1.72 58.1%
ТБ 191.5 1.52 65.8%
ТБ 192.5 1.67 59.9%
ТБ 193.5 1.87 53.5%
ТБ 194.5 2.10 47.6%
ТБ 195.5 2.40 41.7%
ТБ 196.5 2.70 37.0%
ТБ 197.5 2.10 47.6%
ТБ 198.5 2.30 43.5%
ТБ 199.5 1.94 51.6%
ТБ 200.5 2.07 48.3%
ТБ 201.5 2.25 44.4%

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Fonbet
П1 2.85 35.1%
П2 1.37 73.0%
Match center
Ryazan
W L L L L
14.07 19:00 МСК IPBL
Ryazan 105:91 Serov
11.07 23:00 МСК IPBL
Ryazan 89:112 Smolensk
11.07 21:00 МСК IPBL
Ryazan 95:122 Salavat
09.07 23:00 МСК IPBL
Ryazan 91:101 Smolensk
09.07 21:00 МСК IPBL
Ryazan 108:122 Salavat
1 Wins
4 Losses
97.6 Scored
109.6 Conceded
20% Win percentage
Salavat
L L W W L
14.07 18:10 МСК IPBL
Salavat 112:119 Smolensk
11.07 22:00 МСК IPBL
Salavat 105:111 Serov
11.07 21:00 МСК IPBL
Salavat 122:95 Ryazan
11.07 18:00 МСК IPBL
Salavat 114:98 Smolensk
09.07 22:00 МСК IPBL
Salavat 102:111 Serov
2 Wins
3 Losses
111.0 Scored
106.8 Conceded
40% Win percentage
Match center

Full head-to-head historyRyazan - Salavat

Ryazan
3 matches total
Salavat
Ryazan: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Salavat: 3 (100%)
Biggest win Salavat 95:122 (11.07 21:00 МСК) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 236 goals (114:122, 07.07 21:00 МСК) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

11.07 21:00 МСК IPBL
Ryazan
95:122
Salavat
09.07 21:00 МСК IPBL
Ryazan
108:122
Salavat
07.07 21:00 МСК IPBL
Ryazan
114:122
Salavat