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IPBL
IPBL International
14.07.2026 19:00 MSK Match prediction
14.07.2026 19:00 MSK
Finished

IPBL

Ryazan - Serov

International Basketball
Ryazan
Ryazan
105 : 91
Finished
Serov
Serov
🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Serov — 52%

1 · Ryazan47.9%
2 · Serov52.1%

Model estimate: win Ryazan 47.9%, win Serov 52.1%. Model favourite — Serov.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Ryazan - Serov 14 июля 2026

Basketball math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Ryazan.

Line favourite Fonbet: Ryazan. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 1.11 / 2 5.50
  • Glicko: Ryazan 47.9% / Serov 52.1%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 8.3%
1 83.2%
2 16.8%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Победитель П1 1.52 ↑ 1.63
Победитель П2 2.35 ↓ 2.13

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 14.07.2026 19:00 MSK
Form 6 matches
H2H 3
Match center

Ryazan - Serov

В базе учтены недавние матчи обоих участников и 3 очных встреч.

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 2 head-to-head matches
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Flashscore match data source checked
Odds match data source checked
Bookiesapi match data source checked
Line depth match data source checked
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants H2H Line Movement Overview
More needed
Tournament Championat, Flashscore
Lineup / squad Championat, Injuries
Post-match / PropickAI database
Score 105:91
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
Market and Glicko

Basketball math model. The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Ryazan 56.7% 47.9% market favourite
Serov 43.4% 52.1% Glicko-противоход
1X2: 1 Bookies

Glicko-2 - рейтинговая модель силы: сравнивает линию, историю и стабильность, но не дает гарантий.

Basketball math model
P1 / P2 47.9% / 52.1% probabilities
Rating 1,342 / 1,446 Ryazan / Serov
RD 101 / 109 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,139-1,545 / 1,228-1,663 strength interval
HFA: 65 HFA mu: 0.374 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: value не найден

The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 5.50 Fonbet · weak value +186.6% · model 52.1%
1 1.11 Fonbet · no value · model 47.9%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.95 Fonbet · line only
2 +0.5 1.95 Fonbet · line only
1 -0.5 1.75 Fonbet · line only
1 +0.5 1.75 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 187.5 1.65 Fonbet · line only
Over 188.5 1.72 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Открыть на Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Fonbet
П2 -0.5 1.95 51.3%
П2 -1.5 2.20 45.5%
П2 -10.5 2.65 37.7%
П2 -11.5 1.94 51.6%
П2 -12.5 1.70 58.8%
П2 -13.5 1.75 57.1%
П2 -14.5 1.55 64.5%
П2 -15.5 1.93 51.8%
П2 -16.5 1.72 58.1%
П2 -17.5 1.55 64.5%
П2 -2.5 2.00 50.0%
П2 -3.5 1.83 54.6%
П2 -4.5 2.30 43.5%
П2 -5.5 2.40 41.7%
П2 -6.5 2.13 47.0%
П2 -7.5 1.90 52.6%
П2 -8.5 2.00 50.0%
П2 -9.5 1.70 58.8%

Total

Outcome Fonbet
ТБ 187.5 1.65 60.6%
ТБ 188.5 1.72 58.1%
ТБ 189.5 1.80 55.6%
ТБ 190.5 1.87 53.5%
ТБ 191.5 1.95 51.3%
ТБ 192.5 1.50 66.7%
ТБ 193.5 1.65 60.6%
ТБ 194.5 1.83 54.6%
ТБ 195.5 2.07 48.3%
ТБ 196.5 1.50 66.7%
ТБ 197.5 1.83 54.6%
ТБ 198.5 2.10 47.6%
ТБ 199.5 1.80 55.6%
ТБ 200.5 1.72 58.1%
ТБ 201.5 2.00 50.0%
ТБ 202.5 2.70 37.0%
ТБ 203.5 2.50 40.0%
ТБ 204.5 2.13 47.0%

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Fonbet
П1 1.11 90.1%
П2 5.50 18.2%
Match center
Ryazan
L L L L W
11.07 23:00 МСК IPBL
Ryazan 89:112 Smolensk
11.07 21:00 МСК IPBL
Ryazan 95:122 Salavat
09.07 23:00 МСК IPBL
Ryazan 91:101 Smolensk
09.07 21:00 МСК IPBL
Ryazan 108:122 Salavat
09.07 19:00 МСК IPBL
Ryazan 94:89 Serov
1 Wins
4 Losses
95.4 Scored
109.2 Conceded
20% Win percentage
Serov
W L W L L
11.07 22:00 МСК IPBL
Serov 111:105 Salavat
11.07 20:00 МСК IPBL
Serov 101:105 Smolensk
09.07 22:00 МСК IPBL
Serov 111:102 Salavat
09.07 20:00 МСК IPBL
Serov 72:79 Smolensk
09.07 19:00 МСК IPBL
Serov 89:94 Ryazan
2 Wins
3 Losses
96.8 Scored
97.0 Conceded
40% Win percentage
Match center

Full head-to-head historyRyazan - Serov

Ryazan
2 matches total
Serov
Ryazan: 2 (100%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Serov: 0 (0%)
Biggest win Ryazan 110:91 (07.07 19:00 МСК) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 201 goals (110:91, 07.07 19:00 МСК) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

09.07 19:00 МСК IPBL
Ryazan
94:89
Serov
07.07 19:00 МСК IPBL
Ryazan
110:91
Serov