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IPBL
IPBL International
14.07.2026 23:00 MSK Match prediction
14.07.2026 23:00 MSK
Finished

IPBL

Ryazan - Smolensk

International Basketball
Ryazan
Ryazan
70 : 85
Finished
Smolensk
Smolensk
🎯 PropickAI prediction
High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

2 Smolensk — 63%

1 · Ryazan36.7%
market10%
2 · Smolensk ✓ Прогноз63.3%
market90%

Model estimate: win Ryazan 36.7%, win Smolensk 63.3%. Model favourite — Smolensk.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Ryazan - Smolensk 14 июля 2026

Basketball math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Smolensk.

Line favourite Fonbet: Smolensk. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 9.00 / 2 1.03
  • Glicko: Ryazan 36.7% / Smolensk 63.3%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 8.2%
1 10.3%
2 ✓ Прогноз 89.7%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Победитель П1 2.80 ↑ 7.30
Победитель П2 1.38 ↓ 1.06

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 14.07.2026 23:00 MSK
Form 6 matches
H2H 3
Match center

Ryazan - Smolensk

В базе учтены недавние матчи обоих участников и 3 очных встреч.

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 3 head-to-head matches
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Flashscore match data source checked
Odds match data source checked
Bookiesapi match data source checked
Line depth match data source checked
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants H2H Line Movement Overview
More needed
Tournament Championat, Flashscore
Lineup / squad Championat, Injuries
Post-match / PropickAI database
Score 70:85
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
Market and Glicko

Basketball math model. The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Ryazan 12.7% 36.7%
Smolensk 87.3% 63.3% market and model agree
1X2: 1 Bookies

Glicko-2 - рейтинговая модель силы: сравнивает линию, историю и стабильность, но не дает гарантий.

Basketball math model
P1 / P2 36.7% / 63.3% probabilities
Rating 1,396 / 1,753 Ryazan / Smolensk
RD 98 / 98 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,199-1,592 / 1,558-1,948 strength interval
HFA: 65 HFA mu: 0.374 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: value не найден

The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.03 Fonbet · no value · model 63.3%
1 9.00 Fonbet · no value · model 36.7%
Total
Over 152.5 1.43 Fonbet · line only
Over 153.5 1.55 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Открыть на Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Fonbet
П2 +10.5 1.68 59.5%
П2 +11.5 1.55 64.5%
П2 +12.5 1.72 58.1%
П2 +13.5 1.93 51.8%
П2 +14.5 1.83 54.6%
П2 +15.5 2.10 47.6%
П2 +16.5 1.83 54.6%
П2 +17.5 2.05 48.8%
П2 +18.5 2.35 42.6%
П2 +19.5 1.72 58.1%
П2 +20.5 1.83 54.6%
П2 +21.5 1.94 51.6%
П2 +22.5 2.10 47.6%
П2 +23.5 2.03 49.3%
П2 +24.5 2.15 46.5%
П2 +4.5 1.65 60.6%
П2 +5.5 1.72 58.1%
П2 +6.5 1.67 59.9%

Total

Outcome Fonbet
ТБ 152.5 1.43 69.9%
ТБ 153.5 1.55 64.5%
ТБ 154.5 1.72 58.1%
ТБ 155.5 1.76 56.8%
ТБ 156.5 2.03 49.3%
ТБ 157.5 1.63 61.4%
ТБ 158.5 1.83 54.6%
ТБ 159.5 2.07 48.3%
ТБ 160.5 2.40 41.7%
ТБ 161.5 2.80 35.7%
ТБ 162.5 1.83 54.6%
ТБ 163.5 2.03 49.3%
ТБ 164.5 2.25 44.4%
ТБ 165.5 2.52 39.7%
ТБ 166.5 1.60 62.5%
ТБ 167.5 1.72 58.1%
ТБ 168.5 1.87 53.5%
ТБ 169.5 2.05 48.8%

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Fonbet
П1 9.00 11.1%
П2 1.03 97.1%
Match center
Ryazan
L W L L L
14.07 21:00 МСК IPBL
Ryazan 103:104 Salavat
14.07 19:00 МСК IPBL
Ryazan 105:91 Serov
11.07 23:00 МСК IPBL
Ryazan 89:112 Smolensk
11.07 21:00 МСК IPBL
Ryazan 95:122 Salavat
09.07 23:00 МСК IPBL
Ryazan 91:101 Smolensk
1 Wins
4 Losses
96.6 Scored
106.0 Conceded
20% Win percentage
Smolensk
W W W W L
14.07 20:00 МСК IPBL
Smolensk 92:86 Serov
14.07 18:10 МСК IPBL
Smolensk 119:112 Salavat
11.07 23:00 МСК IPBL
Smolensk 112:89 Ryazan
11.07 20:00 МСК IPBL
Smolensk 105:101 Serov
11.07 18:00 МСК IPBL
Smolensk 98:114 Salavat
4 Wins
1 Losses
105.2 Scored
100.4 Conceded
80% Win percentage
Match center

Full head-to-head historyRyazan - Smolensk

Ryazan
3 matches total
Smolensk
Ryazan: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Smolensk: 3 (100%)
Biggest win Smolensk 89:112 (11.07 23:00 МСК) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 210 goals (97:113, 07.07 23:00 МСК) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

11.07 23:00 МСК IPBL
Ryazan
89:112
Smolensk
09.07 23:00 МСК IPBL
Ryazan
91:101
Smolensk
07.07 23:00 МСК IPBL
Ryazan
97:113
Smolensk