IPBL
IPBL International
13.07.2026 12:00 MSK
Finished

IPBL

Samara - Krasnodar

International Basketball
Samara
Samara
98 : 85
Finished
Krasnodar
Krasnodar
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Medium confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Samara58%

1 · Samara ✓ Прогноз57.8%
2 · Krasnodar42.2%

Model estimate: win Samara 57.8%, win Krasnodar 42.2%. Model favourite — Samara.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Samara - Krasnodar 13 июля 2026

Basketball math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Krasnodar.

Line favourite Fonbet: Krasnodar. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 2.90 / 2 1.35
  • Glicko: Samara 57.8% / Krasnodar 42.2%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 8.6%
1 ✓ Прогноз 31.8%
2 68.2%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Победитель П1 1.62 ↑ 2.90
Победитель П2 2.15 ↓ 1.35

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 13.07.2026 12:00 MSK
Form 6 matches
H2H 3
Match center

Samara - Krasnodar

В базе учтены недавние матчи обоих участников и 3 очных встреч.

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Flashscore match data source checked
Odds match data source checked
Bookiesapi match data source checked
Line depth match data source checked
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants H2H Line Movement Overview
More needed
Tournament Championat, Flashscore
Lineup / squad Championat, Injuries
Post-match / PropickAI database
Score 98:85
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
Market and Glicko

Basketball math model. The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Samara 31.8% 57.8% Glicko-противоход
Krasnodar 68.2% 42.2% market favourite
1X2: 1 Bookies

Glicko-2 - рейтинговая модель силы: сравнивает линию, историю и стабильность, но не дает гарантий.

Basketball math model
P1 / P2 57.8% / 42.2% probabilities
Rating 1,554 / 1,469 Samara / Krasnodar
RD 102 / 104 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,350-1,759 / 1,261-1,677 strength interval
HFA: 65 HFA mu: 0.374 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: value не найден

The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.35 Fonbet · no value · model 42.2%
1 2.90 Fonbet · weak value +67.5% · model 57.8%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.80 Fonbet · line only
2 +0.5 1.63 Fonbet · line only
1 -0.5 1.90 Fonbet · line only
1 +0.5 2.13 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 169.5 1.43 Fonbet · line only
Over 170.5 1.46 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Открыть на Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Fonbet
П2 -0.5 1.80 55.6%
П2 -1.5 1.70 58.8%
П2 -10.5 2.13 47.0%
П2 -11.5 2.25 44.4%
П2 -12.5 2.05 48.8%
П2 -13.5 2.15 46.5%
П2 -14.5 2.35 42.6%
П2 -15.5 2.05 48.8%
П2 -16.5 1.80 55.6%
П2 -17.5 1.62 61.7%
П2 -18.5 2.13 47.0%
П2 -19.5 1.80 55.6%
П2 -2.5 2.07 48.3%
П2 -20.5 1.68 59.5%
П2 -21.5 1.72 58.1%
П2 -22.5 1.57 63.7%
П2 -3.5 1.95 51.3%
П2 -4.5 1.87 53.5%

Total

Outcome Fonbet
ТБ 169.5 1.43 69.9%
ТБ 170.5 1.46 68.5%
ТБ 171.5 1.62 61.7%
ТБ 172.5 1.43 69.9%
ТБ 173.5 1.57 63.7%
ТБ 174.5 1.75 57.1%
ТБ 175.5 2.00 50.0%
ТБ 176.5 2.25 44.4%
ТБ 177.5 2.65 37.7%
ТБ 178.5 1.93 51.8%
ТБ 179.5 2.15 46.5%
ТБ 180.5 2.45 40.8%
ТБ 181.5 2.35 42.6%
ТБ 182.5 2.25 44.4%
ТБ 183.5 2.07 48.3%
ТБ 184.5 2.23 44.8%
ТБ 185.5 1.93 51.8%
ТБ 186.5 2.05 48.8%

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Fonbet
П1 2.90 34.5%
П2 1.35 74.1%
Match center
Samara
L W W L W
09.07 16:00 МСК IPBL
Samara 83:91 Tyumen
09.07 14:00 МСК IPBL
Samara 90:77 Kazan
09.07 12:00 МСК IPBL
Samara 97:76 Krasnodar
07.07 16:00 МСК IPBL
Samara 97:104 Tyumen
07.07 14:00 МСК IPBL
Samara 102:95 Kazan
3 Wins
2 Losses
93.8 Scored
88.6 Conceded
60% Win percentage
Krasnodar
W W L L L
09.07 17:00 МСК IPBL
Krasnodar 95:88 Kazan
09.07 15:00 МСК IPBL
Krasnodar 94:76 Tyumen
09.07 12:00 МСК IPBL
Krasnodar 76:97 SamaraSamara
07.07 17:00 МСК IPBL
Krasnodar 93:112 Kazan
07.07 15:00 МСК IPBL
Krasnodar 114:116 Tyumen
2 Wins
3 Losses
94.4 Scored
97.8 Conceded
40% Win percentage
Match center

Full head-to-head historySamara - Krasnodar

Samara
1 matches total
Krasnodar
Samara: 1 (100%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Krasnodar: 0 (0%)
Biggest win Samara 97:76 (09.07 12:00 МСК) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 173 goals (97:76, 09.07 12:00 МСК) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw draw with the most goals

Match history

09.07 12:00 МСК IPBL
Samara
97:76
Krasnodar