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IPBL
IPBL International
14.07.2026 20:00 MSK Match prediction
14.07.2026 20:00 MSK
Finished

IPBL

Serov - Smolensk

International Basketball
Serov
Serov
86 : 92
Finished
Smolensk
Smolensk
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Medium confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

2 Smolensk — 60%

1 · Serov40.4%
market45%
2 · Smolensk ✓ Прогноз59.6%
market55%

Model estimate: win Serov 40.4%, win Smolensk 59.6%. Model favourite — Smolensk.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Serov - Smolensk 14 июля 2026

Basketball math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Smolensk.

Line favourite Fonbet: Smolensk. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 2.05 / 2 1.68
  • Glicko: Serov 40.4% / Smolensk 59.6%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 8.3%
1 45.0%
2 ✓ Прогноз 55.0%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Победитель П1 1.77 ↑ 2.52
Победитель П2 1.93 ↓ 1.46

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 14.07.2026 20:00 MSK
Form 6 matches
H2H 3
Match center

Serov - Smolensk

В базе учтены недавние матчи обоих участников и 3 очных встреч.

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 3 head-to-head matches
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Flashscore match data source checked
Odds match data source checked
Bookiesapi match data source checked
Line depth match data source checked
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants H2H Line Movement Overview
More needed
Tournament Championat, Flashscore
Lineup / squad Championat, Injuries
Post-match / PropickAI database
Score 86:92
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
Market and Glicko

Basketball math model. The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Serov 36.7% 40.4%
Smolensk 63.3% 59.6% market and model agree
1X2: 1 Bookies

Glicko-2 - рейтинговая модель силы: сравнивает линию, историю и стабильность, но не дает гарантий.

Basketball math model
P1 / P2 40.4% / 59.6% probabilities
Rating 1,446 / 1,702 Serov / Smolensk
RD 109 / 102 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,228-1,663 / 1,498-1,906 strength interval
HFA: 65 HFA mu: 0.374 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: value не найден

The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.68 Fonbet · no value · model 59.6%
1 2.05 Fonbet · no value · model 40.4%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.72 Fonbet · line only
2 +0.5 1.72 Fonbet · line only
1 -0.5 2.00 Fonbet · line only
1 +0.5 2.00 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 169.5 1.62 Fonbet · line only
Over 170.5 1.68 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Открыть на Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Fonbet
П1 +0.5 2.00 50.0%
П1 -0.5 2.00 50.0%
П1 -1.5 2.25 44.4%
П1 -2.5 2.07 48.3%
П1 -3.5 2.13 47.0%
П2 +0.5 1.72 58.1%
П2 +1.5 2.03 49.3%
П2 +2.5 1.63 61.4%
П2 +3.5 1.83 54.6%
П2 +4.5 2.07 48.3%
П2 +5.5 1.65 60.6%
П2 +6.5 1.87 53.5%
П2 +7.5 2.20 45.5%
П2 +8.5 2.55 39.2%
П2 -0.5 1.72 58.1%
П2 -1.5 1.57 63.7%
П2 -2.5 1.67 59.9%
П2 -3.5 1.63 61.4%

Total

Outcome Fonbet
ТБ 169.5 1.62 61.7%
ТБ 170.5 1.68 59.5%
ТБ 171.5 1.77 56.5%
ТБ 172.5 1.87 53.5%
ТБ 173.5 1.47 68.0%
ТБ 174.5 1.60 62.5%
ТБ 175.5 1.77 56.5%
ТБ 176.5 1.95 51.3%
ТБ 177.5 2.23 44.8%
ТБ 178.5 2.50 40.0%
ТБ 179.5 1.75 57.1%
ТБ 180.5 1.80 55.6%
ТБ 181.5 2.05 48.8%
ТБ 182.5 2.35 42.6%
ТБ 183.5 2.30 43.5%
ТБ 184.5 2.35 42.6%
ТБ 185.5 2.00 50.0%
ТБ 186.5 2.10 47.6%

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Fonbet
П1 2.05 48.8%
П2 1.68 59.5%
Match center
Serov
L W L W L
14.07 19:00 МСК IPBL
Serov 91:105 Ryazan
11.07 22:00 МСК IPBL
Serov 111:105 Salavat
11.07 20:00 МСК IPBL
Serov 101:105 Smolensk
09.07 22:00 МСК IPBL
Serov 111:102 Salavat
09.07 20:00 МСК IPBL
Serov 72:79 Smolensk
2 Wins
3 Losses
97.2 Scored
99.2 Conceded
40% Win percentage
Smolensk
W W W L W
14.07 18:10 МСК IPBL
Smolensk 119:112 Salavat
11.07 23:00 МСК IPBL
Smolensk 112:89 Ryazan
11.07 20:00 МСК IPBL
Smolensk 105:101 Serov
11.07 18:00 МСК IPBL
Smolensk 98:114 Salavat
09.07 23:00 МСК IPBL
Smolensk 101:91 Ryazan
4 Wins
1 Losses
107.0 Scored
101.4 Conceded
80% Win percentage
Match center

Full head-to-head historySerov - Smolensk

Serov
3 matches total
Smolensk
Serov: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Smolensk: 3 (100%)
Biggest win Smolensk 76:84 (07.07 20:00 МСК) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 206 goals (101:105, 11.07 20:00 МСК) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

11.07 20:00 МСК IPBL
Serov
101:105
Smolensk
09.07 20:00 МСК IPBL
Serov
72:79
Smolensk
07.07 20:00 МСК IPBL
Serov
76:84
Smolensk