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IPBL
IPBL International
16.07.2026 09:00 UTC Match prediction
16.07.2026 09:00 UTC
Finished

IPBL

Toliatti (w) - Ekaterinburg (w)

International Basketball
Toliatti (w)
Toliatti (w)
71 : 76
Finished
Ekaterinburg (w)
Ekaterinburg (w)
🎯 PropickAI prediction
High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

2 Ekaterinburg (w) — 62%

1 · Toliatti (w)37.8%
market14%
2 · Ekaterinburg (w) ✓ Прогноз62.2%
market86%

Model estimate: win Toliatti (w) 37.8%, win Ekaterinburg (w) 62.2%. Model favourite — Ekaterinburg (w).

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Toliatti (w) - Ekaterinburg (w) 16 июля 2026

Basketball math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Ekaterinburg (w).

Line favourite Fonbet: Ekaterinburg (w). We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 6.80 / 2 1.07
  • Glicko: Toliatti (w) 37.8% / Ekaterinburg (w) 62.2%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 8.2%
1 13.6%
2 ✓ Прогноз 86.4%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Победитель П1 1.93 ↑ 2.00
Победитель П2 1.77 ↓ 1.72

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 16.07.2026 09:00 UTC
Form 6 matches
H2H 2
Match center

Toliatti (w) - Ekaterinburg (w)

В базе учтены недавние матчи обоих участников и 2 очных встреч.

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 2 head-to-head matches
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Flashscore match data source checked
Odds match data source checked
Bookiesapi match data source checked
Line depth match data source checked
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants H2H Line Movement Overview
More needed
Tournament Championat, Flashscore
Lineup / squad Championat, Injuries
Post-match / PropickAI database
Score 71:76
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
Market and Glicko

Basketball math model. The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Toliatti (w) 46.2% 37.8%
Ekaterinburg (w) 53.8% 62.2% market and model agree
1X2: 1 Bookies

Glicko-2 - рейтинговая модель силы: сравнивает линию, историю и стабильность, но не дает гарантий.

Basketball math model
P1 / P2 37.8% / 62.2% probabilities
Rating 1,283 / 1,806 Toliatti (w) / Ekaterinburg (w)
RD 184 / 187 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 914-1,651 / 1,431-2,180 strength interval
HFA: 65 HFA mu: 0.374 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: value не найден

The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.07 Fonbet · no value · model 62.2%
1 6.80 Fonbet · no value · model 37.8%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.76 Fonbet · line only
2 +0.5 1.76 Fonbet · line only
1 -0.5 1.94 Fonbet · line only
1 +0.5 1.94 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 150.5 1.67 Fonbet · line only
Over 151.5 1.90 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Открыть на Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Fonbet
П1 -0.5 1.94 51.6%
П1 -1.5 2.13 47.0%
П1 -2.5 2.10 47.6%
П2 +0.5 1.76 56.8%
П2 +1.5 1.93 51.8%
П2 +10.5 2.25 44.4%
П2 +11.5 2.20 45.5%
П2 +2.5 2.10 47.6%
П2 +3.5 1.47 68.0%
П2 +4.5 1.80 55.6%
П2 +5.5 1.75 57.1%
П2 +6.5 2.05 48.8%
П2 +7.5 2.40 41.7%
П2 +8.5 2.40 41.7%
П2 +9.5 2.03 49.3%
П2 -0.5 1.76 56.8%
П2 -1.5 1.63 61.4%
П2 -2.5 1.65 60.6%

Total

Outcome Fonbet
ТБ 150.5 1.67 59.9%
ТБ 151.5 1.90 52.6%
ТБ 152.5 1.90 52.6%
ТБ 153.5 1.43 69.9%
ТБ 154.5 1.57 63.7%
ТБ 155.5 1.72 58.1%
ТБ 156.5 1.93 51.8%
ТБ 157.5 2.20 45.5%
ТБ 158.5 2.45 40.8%
ТБ 159.5 2.25 44.4%
ТБ 160.5 2.50 40.0%
ТБ 161.5 1.93 51.8%
ТБ 162.5 2.10 47.6%
ТБ 163.5 2.30 43.5%
ТБ 164.5 1.94 51.6%
ТБ 165.5 2.07 48.3%
ТБ 166.5 2.23 44.8%
ТБ 167.5 2.07 48.3%

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Fonbet
П1 6.80 14.7%
П2 1.07 93.5%
Match center
Toliatti (w)
L W L L L
12.07 14:00 UTC IPBL
Toliatti (w) 105:107 Khimki (zh)Khimki (zh)
12.07 11:05 UTC IPBL
Toliatti (w) 86:70 Berezniki (zh)
12.07 09:00 UTC IPBL
Toliatti (w) 79:89 Ekaterinburg (zh)Ekaterinburg (zh)
09.07 14:00 UTC IPBL
Toliatti (w) 102:105 Khimki (zh)Khimki (zh)
09.07 11:05 UTC IPBL
Toliatti (w) 90:95 Berezniki (zh)
1 Wins
4 Losses
92.4 Scored
93.2 Conceded
20% Win percentage
Ekaterinburg (w)
W W W L L
12.07 13:05 UTC IPBL
Ekaterinburg (w) 82:77 Berezniki (zh)
12.07 12:00 UTC IPBL
Ekaterinburg (w) 86:77 Khimki (zh)Khimki (zh)
12.07 09:00 UTC IPBL
Ekaterinburg (w) 89:79 Tolyatti (zh)
09.07 13:05 UTC IPBL
Ekaterinburg (w) 87:90 Berezniki (zh)
09.07 12:00 UTC IPBL
Ekaterinburg (w) 88:102 Khimki (zh)Khimki (zh)
3 Wins
2 Losses
86.4 Scored
85.0 Conceded
60% Win percentage
Match center

Full head-to-head historyToliatti (w) - Ekaterinburg (w)

Toliatti (w)
2 matches total
Ekaterinburg (w)
Toliatti (w): 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Ekaterinburg (w): 2 (100%)
Biggest win Tolyatti (zh) 88:74 (09.07 09:00 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 168 goals (79:89, 12.07 09:00 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

12.07 09:00 UTC IPBL
Tolyatti (zh)
79:89
Ekaterinburg (zh)
09.07 09:00 UTC IPBL
Tolyatti (zh)
88:74
Ekaterinburg (zh)