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IPBL
IPBL International
16.07.2026 14:00 UTC Match prediction
16.07.2026 14:00 UTC
Finished

IPBL

Toliatti (w) - Khimki (w)

International Basketball
Toliatti (w)
Toliatti (w)
100 : 90
Finished
Khimki (w)
Khimki (w)
🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Khimki (w) — 54%

1 · Toliatti (w)45.5%
2 · Khimki (w)54.5%

Model estimate: win Toliatti (w) 45.5%, win Khimki (w) 54.5%. Model favourite — Khimki (w).

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Toliatti (w) - Khimki (w) 16 июля 2026

Basketball math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Toliatti (w).

Line favourite Fonbet: Toliatti (w). We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 1.04 / 2 8.50
  • Glicko: Toliatti (w) 45.5% / Khimki (w) 54.5%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 7.9%
1 89.1%
2 10.9%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Победитель П1 1.60 ↑ 1.65
Победитель П2 2.20 ↓ 2.10

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 16.07.2026 14:00 UTC
Form 6 matches
H2H 2
Match center

Toliatti (w) - Khimki (w)

В базе учтены недавние матчи обоих участников и 2 очных встреч.

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 2 head-to-head matches
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Flashscore match data source checked
Odds match data source checked
Bookiesapi match data source checked
Line depth match data source checked
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants H2H Line Movement Overview
More needed
Tournament Championat, Flashscore
Lineup / squad Championat, Injuries
Post-match / PropickAI database
Score 100:90
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
Market and Glicko

Basketball math model. The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Toliatti (w) 56.0% 45.5% market favourite
Khimki (w) 44.0% 54.5% Glicko-противоход
1X2: 1 Bookies

Glicko-2 - рейтинговая модель силы: сравнивает линию, историю и стабильность, но не дает гарантий.

Basketball math model
P1 / P2 45.5% / 54.5% probabilities
Rating 1,261 / 1,428 Toliatti (w) / Khimki (w)
RD 178 / 160 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 904-1,618 / 1,108-1,747 strength interval
HFA: 65 HFA mu: 0.374 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: value не найден

The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 8.50 Fonbet · weak value +362.8% · model 54.5%
1 1.04 Fonbet · no value · model 45.5%
Handicap
2 -0.5 2.13 Fonbet · line only
1 -0.5 1.63 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 183.5 1.55 Fonbet · line only
Over 184.5 1.52 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Открыть на Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Fonbet
П2 -0.5 2.13 47.0%
П2 -1.5 2.10 47.6%
П2 -10.5 1.55 64.5%
П2 -11.5 1.90 52.6%
П2 -12.5 1.80 55.6%
П2 -13.5 1.57 63.7%
П2 -14.5 1.55 64.5%
П2 -15.5 1.95 51.3%
П2 -16.5 1.80 55.6%
П2 -17.5 1.68 59.5%
П2 -18.5 1.57 63.7%
П2 -19.5 1.65 60.6%
П2 -2.5 1.95 51.3%
П2 -3.5 1.85 54.1%
П2 -4.5 2.03 49.3%
П2 -5.5 1.90 52.6%
П2 -6.5 2.30 43.5%
П2 -7.5 2.25 44.4%

Total

Outcome Fonbet
ТБ 183.5 1.55 64.5%
ТБ 184.5 1.52 65.8%
ТБ 185.5 1.63 61.4%
ТБ 186.5 1.46 68.5%
ТБ 187.5 1.60 62.5%
ТБ 188.5 1.80 55.6%
ТБ 189.5 2.05 48.8%
ТБ 190.5 2.25 44.4%
ТБ 191.5 2.65 37.7%
ТБ 192.5 1.62 61.7%
ТБ 193.5 1.50 66.7%
ТБ 194.5 1.62 61.7%
ТБ 195.5 1.76 56.8%
ТБ 196.5 1.93 51.8%
ТБ 197.5 2.13 47.0%
ТБ 198.5 2.35 42.6%
ТБ 199.5 2.00 50.0%
ТБ 200.5 2.10 47.6%

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Fonbet
П1 1.04 96.2%
П2 8.50 11.8%
Match center
Toliatti (w)
W L L W L
16.07 11:05 UTC IPBL
Toliatti (w) 107:85 Berezniki (zh)
16.07 09:00 UTC IPBL
Toliatti (w) 71:76 Ekaterinburg (zh)Ekaterinburg (zh)
12.07 14:00 UTC IPBL
Toliatti (w) 105:107 Khimki (zh)Khimki (zh)
12.07 11:05 UTC IPBL
Toliatti (w) 86:70 Berezniki (zh)
12.07 09:00 UTC IPBL
Toliatti (w) 79:89 Ekaterinburg (zh)Ekaterinburg (zh)
2 Wins
3 Losses
89.6 Scored
85.4 Conceded
40% Win percentage
Khimki (w)
L L W L L
16.07 12:00 UTC IPBL
Khimki (w) 88:91 Ekaterinburg (zh)Ekaterinburg (zh)
16.07 10:00 UTC IPBL
Khimki (w) 80:82 Berezniki (zh)
12.07 14:00 UTC IPBL
Khimki (w) 107:105 Tolyatti (zh)
12.07 12:00 UTC IPBL
Khimki (w) 77:86 Ekaterinburg (zh)Ekaterinburg (zh)
12.07 10:00 UTC IPBL
Khimki (w) 83:98 Berezniki (zh)
1 Wins
4 Losses
87.0 Scored
92.4 Conceded
20% Win percentage
Match center

Full head-to-head historyToliatti (w) - Khimki (w)

Toliatti (w)
2 matches total
Khimki (w)
Toliatti (w): 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Khimki (w): 2 (100%)
Biggest win Khimki (zh) 102:105 (09.07 14:00 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 212 goals (105:107, 12.07 14:00 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

12.07 14:00 UTC IPBL
Tolyatti (zh)
105:107
Khimki (zh)
09.07 14:00 UTC IPBL
Tolyatti (zh)
102:105
Khimki (zh)