IPBL International

17.07.2026 06:00 UTC Match prediction

17.07.2026 06:00 UTC

Finished

IPBL

Yaroslavl (w) - Tomsk (w)

International Basketball

Yaroslavl (w)

78 : 90

Finished

Tomsk (w)

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Tomsk (w) — 55%

1 · Yaroslavl (w)45.3%

2 · Tomsk (w)54.7%

Model estimate: win Yaroslavl (w) 45.3%, win Tomsk (w) 54.7%. Model favourite — Tomsk (w).

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Yaroslavl (w) - Tomsk (w) July 17, 2026

Basketball math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Tomsk (w).

Line favourite Fonbet: Tomsk (w). We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

Win odds (Fonbet): 1 7.30 / 2 1.06
Glicko: Yaroslavl (w) 45.3% / Tomsk (w) 54.7%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

Winner bookmaker margin 8.0%

1 12.7%

2 87.3%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

Winner 1 2.40 ↓ 1.25

Winner 2 1.50 ↑ 3.55

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

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Match center

Start 17.07.2026 06:00 UTC

Form 6 matches

H2H 3

Match center

Yaroslavl (w) - Tomsk (w)

V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov i 3 ochnykh vstrech.

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 3 head-to-head matches

Market 2 model / bookmakers

Flashscore match data source checked

Odds match data source checked

Bookiesapi match data source checked

Line depth match data source checked

Present in data

Market Form Match Participants H2H Line Movement Overview

More needed

Tournament Championat, Flashscore

Lineup / squad Championat, Injuries

Post-match / PropickAI database

Score 78:90

Events 0

Statistics 0

Lineups 0

Market and Glicko

Basketball math model. The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Yaroslavl (w) 74.0% 45.3% market favourite

Tomsk (w) 26.0% 54.7% Glicko contrarian

1X2: 1 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Basketball math model

P1 / P2 45.3% / 54.7% probabilities

Rating 1,321 / 1,480 Yaroslavl (w) / Tomsk (w)

RD 137 / 159 rating uncertainty

r +/- 2RD 1,047-1,596 / 1,162-1,798 strength interval

HFA: 65 HFA mu: 0.374 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: no value found

The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 1.06 Fonbet · no value · model 54.7%

1 7.30 Fonbet · weak value +230.5% · model 45.3%

Handicap

2 -0.5 2.05 Fonbet · line only

2 +0.5 2.05 Fonbet · line only

1 -0.5 1.68 Fonbet · line only

1 +0.5 1.68 Fonbet · line only

Total

Over 160.5 1.37 Fonbet · line only

Over 161.5 1.52 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Открыть на Fonbet →

bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome	Fonbet
	2.05 48.8%
	2.35 42.6%
	2.00 50.0%
	1.93 51.8%
	1.63 61.4%
	1.95 51.3%
	2.05 48.8%
	1.83 54.6%
	1.77 56.5%
	1.65 60.6%
	1.65 60.6%
	1.52 65.8%
	1.57 63.7%
	1.83 54.6%
	1.68 59.5%
	1.57 63.7%
	1.70 58.8%
	1.60 62.5%

Total

Outcome	Fonbet
Over 160.5	1.37 73.0%
Over 161.5	1.52 65.8%
Over 162.5	1.76 56.8%
Over 163.5	2.05 48.8%
Over 164.5	2.20 45.5%
Over 165.5	2.55 39.2%
Over 166.5	2.10 47.6%
Over 167.5	2.35 42.6%
Over 168.5	2.52 39.7%
Over 169.5	1.58 63.3%
Over 170.5	1.70 58.8%
Over 171.5	1.83 54.6%
Over 172.5	2.00 50.0%
Over 173.5	2.20 45.5%
Over 174.5	2.40 41.7%
Over 175.5	1.83 54.6%
Over 176.5	1.94 51.6%
Over 177.5	2.10 47.6%

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome	Fonbet
	7.30 13.7%
	1.06 94.3%

Match center

Yaroslavl (w)

L L L W W

17.07 03:00 UTC IPBL

Yaroslavl (w) 80:108 Cheboksary (zh)

15.07 08:00 UTC IPBL

Yaroslavl (w) 75:103 Tambov (zh)

15.07 06:00 UTC IPBL

Yaroslavl (w) 83:103 Tomsk (zh)

15.07 03:00 UTC IPBL

Yaroslavl (w) 79:67 Cheboksary (zh)

13.07 08:00 UTC IPBL

Yaroslavl (w) 79:70 Tambov (zh)

2 Wins

3 Losses

79.2 Scored

90.2 Conceded

40% Win percentage

Tomsk (w)

L L W L W

17.07 04:00 UTC IPBL

Tomsk (w) 75:82 Tambov (zh)

15.07 07:05 UTC IPBL

Tomsk (w) 82:92 Cheboksary (zh)

15.07 06:00 UTC IPBL

Tomsk (w) 103:83 Yaroslavl (zh)

15.07 04:00 UTC IPBL

Tomsk (w) 78:106 Tambov (zh)

13.07 07:05 UTC IPBL

Tomsk (w) 103:100 Cheboksary (zh)

2 Wins

3 Losses

88.2 Scored

92.6 Conceded

40% Win percentage

Match center

Full head-to-head historyYaroslavl (w) - Tomsk (w)

Yaroslavl (w)

3 matches total

Tomsk (w)

Yaroslavl (w): 0 (0%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Tomsk (w): 3 (100%)

Biggest win Tomsk (zh) 81:102 (13.07 06:00 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 186 goals (83:103, 15.07 06:00 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

15.07 06:00 UTC IPBL

Yaroslavl (zh)

83:103

Tomsk (zh)

13.07 06:00 UTC IPBL

Yaroslavl (zh)

81:102

Tomsk (zh)

10.07 06:00 UTC IPBL

Yaroslavl (zh)

73:76

Tomsk (zh)