•Model backs Deportivo Albatros: probability 52% vs 58% on the line (odds 1.73)
•no edge over the line (-5 pp) — informational only
•Total: Under 165.5: model expects a total of ~160 ochk
•at line 165.5 (odds 1.85)
•Handicap F2 -1.5: score forecast 79:81 (diff -2) covers the line (odds 1.85).
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
*
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Colon - Deportivo Albatros August 6, 2026
Basketball math model
The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
Line favourite Fonbet: Deportivo Albatros. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
Win odds (Fonbet): 1 1.94 / 2 1.77
%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner
bookmaker margin 8.1%
4 books · best price +2.3%
146.6%
253.4%
Odds source: consensus of 4 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Fonbet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
⇅
For reference
Line movement
How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner P11.94→ 1.94
Winner P21.77→ 1.77
↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.
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Match center
Start06.08.2026 23:15 UTC
Market1 47.7% @ 1.94 / 2 52.3% @ 1.77
Form6 matches
Match center
Colon - Deportivo Albatros
V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov.
Form5/5
recent games
H2H0
head-to-head matches
Market2
model / bookmakers
Flashscorematch data
source checked
Oddsmatch data
source checked
Bookiesapimatch data
source checked
Line depthmatch data
source checked
Present in data
MarketFormMatchParticipantsLineMovementOverview
More needed
H2HChampionat, Flashscore
TournamentChampionat, Flashscore
Lineup / squadChampionat, Injuries
Market and Glicko
Basketball math model.
The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.
OutcomeLineGlickoSignal
Colon46.6%47.5%
Deportivo Albatros53.4%52.5%market and model agree
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.
Betting snapshot
1X2
21.77
Fonbet · no value · model 52.5%
11.94
Fonbet · no value · model 47.5%
Total
Over 164.51.85
market consensus · line only
Over 165.51.85
Fonbet · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
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