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Lebanon. First Division. Semi-finals. Best of 5

29.07.2026 16:30 UTC

Not started

Lebanon. First Division. Semi-finals. Best of 5

Al-Riyadi Beirut - Sagesse Beirut

Basketball

Al-Riyadi Beirut

- : -

Not started

Sagesse Beirut

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Medium confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

2 Sagesse Beirut — 59%

1 · Al-Riyadi Beirut41.1%

market54%

2 · Sagesse Beirut ✓ Pick58.9%

market46%

Model estimate: win Al-Riyadi Beirut 41.1%, win Sagesse Beirut 58.9%. Model favourite — Sagesse Beirut.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

2Sagesse Beirut (odds2.02) Score 79:81 Under 176.5 (odds1.85) Handicap H2 +2.5 (odds1.80) confidence 59%

• Al-Riyadi Beyrut: forma PVPVV (3-2)
• Sagesse Beirut: forma VPVPV (3-2)
• ochnye 1-2 (za 3)
• Model backs Sagesse Beirut: probability 59% vs 49% on the line (odds 2.02)
• edge over the line +10 pp — value pick
• Total: Under 176.5: model expects a total of ~160 ochk
• at line 176.5 (odds 1.85)
• Handicap F2 +2.5: score forecast 79:81 (diff -2) covers the line (odds 1.80).

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Al-Riyadi Beirut - Sagesse Beirut July 29, 2026

Basketball math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: Al-Riyadi Beirut. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

Win odds (Fonbet): 1 1.72 / 2 2.00

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

Winner bookmaker margin 8.1%

1 53.8%

2 ✓ Pick 46.2%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

Pobeditel P1 1.72 → 1.72

Pobeditel P2 2.00 → 2.00

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

Head-to-head and form stats

Head-to-head and form

Team form

Al-Riyadi Beirut

1-4LWLLL

points for 86.9points against 86.2

Sagesse Beirut

4-1WLWWW

points for 103.0points against 91.9

Head-to-head and recent form per sports statistics — for reference.

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Match center

Start 29.07.2026 16:30 UTC

Form 6 matches

H2H 3

Match center

Al-Riyadi Beirut - Sagesse Beirut

V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov i 3 ochnykh vstrech.

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 3 head-to-head matches

Market 2 model / bookmakers

Flashscore match data source checked

Odds match data source checked

Bookiesapi match data source checked

Line depth match data source checked

Present in data

Market Form Match Participants H2H Line Movement Overview

More needed

Tournament Championat, Flashscore

Lineup / squad Championat, Injuries

Market and Glicko

Basketball math model. The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Al-Riyadi Beirut 53.8% 41.1% market favourite

Sagesse Beirut 46.2% 58.9% Glicko contrarian

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Basketball math model

P1 / P2 41.1% / 58.9% probabilities

Rating 1,916 / 2,291 Al-Riyadi Beirut / Sagesse Beirut

RD 198 / 261 rating uncertainty

r +/- 2RD 1,520-2,313 / 1,769-2,814 strength interval

HFA: 65 HFA mu: 0.374 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: no value found

The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 2.00 Fonbet · value +17.9% · model 58.9%

1 1.72 Fonbet · no value · model 41.1%

Total

Over 172.5 1.82 Fonbet · line only

Over 173.5 1.85 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →

bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Baltbet	Betcity	Fonbet	Leon
1.78 56.2%	1.80 55.6%	1.80 55.6%	1.80 55.6%
1.88 53.2%	—	1.90 52.6%	1.90 52.6%
1.88 53.2%	1.90 52.6%	—	1.90 52.6%
1.78 56.2%	—	—	1.80 55.6%
—	—	1.90 52.6%	—
—	—	1.80 55.6%	—

Total

Outcome	Baltbet	Betcity	Fonbet
Over 172.5	—	—	1.82 55.0%
Over 173.5	—	—	1.85 54.1%
Over 174.5	—	1.90 52.6%	—
Over 175.5	1.80 55.6%	—	1.82 55.0%
Over 176.5	1.83 54.6%	—	1.85 54.1%
Over 178.5	1.80 55.6%	1.80 55.6%	1.82 55.0%
Under 172.5	—	—	1.88 53.2%
Under 173.5	—	—	1.85 54.1%
Under 174.5	—	1.80 55.6%	—
Under 175.5	1.86 53.8%	—	1.88 53.2%
Under 176.5	1.83 54.6%	—	—
Under 178.5	1.86 53.8%	1.90 52.6%	—

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome	Baltbet	Betcity	Fonbet	Leon
	1.68 59.5%	1.70 58.8%	1.72 58.1%	1.75 57.1%
	1.95 51.3%	2.03 49.3%	2.00 50.0%	2.04 49.0%

Match center

Al-Riyadi Beirut

L W L W W

28.07 18:38 UTC LIVAN: Division 1 - Playoff

Al-Riyadi Beirut 78:90 Sagesse Beirut

27.07 16:40 UTC LIVAN: Division 1 - Playoff

Al-Riyadi Beirut 87:85 Sagesse Beirut

25.07 16:30 UTC LIVAN: Division 1 - Playoff

Al-Riyadi Beirut 96:101 Sagesse Beirut

23.07 16:30 UTC LIVAN: Division 1 - Playoff

Al-Riyadi Beirut 92:89 Sagesse Beirut

17.07 16:30 UTC LIVAN: Division 1 - Playoff

Al-Riyadi Beirut 90:65 Antonine

3 Wins

2 Losses

88.6 Scored

86.0 Conceded

60% Win percentage

Sagesse Beirut

W L W L W

28.07 18:38 UTC LIVAN: Division 1 - Playoff

Sagesse Beirut 90:78 Al-Riyadi Beyrut

27.07 16:40 UTC LIVAN: Division 1 - Playoff

Sagesse Beirut 85:87 Al-Riyadi Beyrut

25.07 16:30 UTC LIVAN: Division 1 - Playoff

Sagesse Beirut 101:96 Al-Riyadi Beyrut

23.07 16:30 UTC LIVAN: Division 1 - Playoff

Sagesse Beirut 89:92 Al-Riyadi Beyrut

19.07 16:30 UTC LIVAN: Division 1 - Playoff

Sagesse Beirut 95:83 Al Markazia

3 Wins

2 Losses

92.0 Scored

87.2 Conceded

60% Win percentage

Match center

Full head-to-head historyAl-Riyadi Beirut - Sagesse Beirut

Al-Riyadi Beirut

3 matches total

Sagesse Beirut

Al-Riyadi Beirut: 0 (0%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Sagesse Beirut: 3 (100%)

Biggest win Sagesse Beirut 78:90 (28.07 18:38 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 197 goals (96:101, 25.07 16:30 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

28.07 18:38 UTC LIVAN: Division 1 - Playoff

Al-Riyadi Beyrut

78:90

Sagesse Beirut

27.07 16:40 UTC LIVAN: Division 1 - Playoff

Al-Riyadi Beyrut

87:85

Sagesse Beirut

25.07 16:30 UTC LIVAN: Division 1 - Playoff

Al-Riyadi Beyrut

96:101

Sagesse Beirut