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Lebanon. First Division. Semi-finals. Best of 5

30.07.2026 16:30 UTC

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Lebanon. First Division. Semi-finals. Best of 5

Al-Riyadi Beirut - Sagesse Beirut

Basketball

Al-Riyadi Beirut

- : -

Not started

Sagesse Beirut

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Al-Riyadi Beirut — 54%

Pure model vs market (1 · Al-Riyadi Beirut): model 41% · market 55% Δ −14 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Al-Riyadi Beirut54.4%

2 · Sagesse Beirut45.6%

Model estimate: win Al-Riyadi Beirut 54.4%, win Sagesse Beirut 45.6%. Model favourite — Al-Riyadi Beirut.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

2Sagesse Beirut (odds2.02) Score 79:81 Under 176.5 (odds1.85) Handicap H2 +2.5 (odds1.80) confidence 59%

• Al-Riyadi Beyrut: forma PVPVV (3-2)
• Sagesse Beirut: forma VPVPV (3-2)
• ochnye 1-2 (za 3)
• Model backs Sagesse Beirut: probability 59% vs 49% on the line (odds 2.02)
• edge over the line +10 pp — value pick
• Total: Under 176.5: model expects a total of ~160 ochk
• at line 176.5 (odds 1.85)
• Handicap F2 +2.5: score forecast 79:81 (diff -2) covers the line (odds 1.80).

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Al-Riyadi Beirut - Sagesse Beirut July 30, 2026

Basketball math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: Al-Riyadi Beirut. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

Win odds (Fonbet): 1 1.67 / 2 2.07

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

Winner bookmaker margin 8.2%

1 55.3%

2 44.7%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

Pobeditel P1 1.72 ↓ 1.67

Pobeditel P2 2.00 ↑ 2.07

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome

Agreement 1/1

Confidence 62.0%

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

Head-to-head and form stats

Head-to-head and form

Team form

Al-Riyadi Beirut

1-4LWLLL

points for 86.9points against 86.2

Sagesse Beirut

4-1WLWWW

points for 103.0points against 91.9

Head-to-head and recent form per sports statistics — for reference.

AI overview

AI predictions

AI analysis:5/7 ready · Still preparing:DeepSeek, ChatGPT

Google AI updated29.07.2026 17:49 UTC

1 58% ✓ favourite

2 42%

Score86:83 Total points: Under 174.5 Bet:Handicap 2 (+4.5)

Per AI data Form:W-L-W-L-W / L-W-L-W-W

Claude updated29.07.2026 18:02 UTC

1 59% ✓ favourite

2 41%

Score88:82 Total points: Under 178.5 Bet:Handicap 2 (+5.5)

Qwen updated29.07.2026 17:57 UTC

1 78% ✓ favourite

2 7%

Score2:0 Total points: Under 2.5 Bet:Win DAC Dunayska Streda

Per AI data H2H: 0-0

Kimi updated29.07.2026 18:03 UTC

1 57% ✓ favourite

2 43%

Score... Total points: ... Bet:...

Per AI data Form:... / ... H2H: ... Injuries:... Key:...

GLM 5.2 updated29.07.2026 18:04 UTC

1 57% ✓ favourite

2 43%

Bet:1

Details

🔥 Al Riyadi Beirut vs Sagesse — Lebanese Basketball Finals 2025

Here's the situation for the Lebanese Basketball Finals 2025:

Current Standing: Al Riyadi Leads 2-0 in the Best-of-7 Series
GAME

DATE

RESULT

SCORE

Game 1 Jul 27 Al Riyadi Win ✅ Al Riyadi 100 - 87 Sagesse
Game 2 Jul 28 Al Riyadi Win ✅ Al Riyadi 78 - 67 Sagesse
Game 3 Jul 30 Tonight —
Game 4 Aug 1 Scheduled —
Game 5 Aug 3 If needed —
Game 6 Aug 5 If needed —
Game 7 Aug 7 If needed —
Key Details
🏆 League: Lebanese Basketball League (WASL Final 8 / Division A)
📍 Venue: Ghazl El Mehalleh Arena (provisionally scheduled)
📺 Broadcast: LB TV / streaming available via SofaScore
📊 Live Score: Available on SofaScore — match starts at 8:00 PM Local Time tonight
Series Storyline So Far

Al Riyadi have stamped their authority on the finals with two dominant wins:

Game 1 (100-87): Al Riyadi's offense was firing on all cylinders, putting up a century in a commanding 13-point victory.
Game 2 (78-67): A more defensive grind, but Al Riyadi still controlled the tempo and secured an 11-point win on the road.

Sagesse now face a must-win Game 3 tonight to keep their championship hopes alive. No team in the modern Lebanese Basketball League has come back from an 0-2 deficit in the finals.

Stakes Tonight
AL RIYADI (2-0)

SAGESSE (0-2)

AI consensus:1

AI	1	2	Score	Total points	Bet
Google AI	58%	42%	86:83	Under 174.5	Handicap 2 (+4.5)
Claude	59%	41%	88:82	Under 178.5	Handicap 2 (+5.5)
Qwen	78%	7%	2:0	Under 2.5	Win DAC Dunayska Streda
Kimi	57%	43%	...	...	...
GLM 5.2	57%	43%	—	—	1

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Match center

Start 30.07.2026 16:30 UTC

Form 6 matches

H2H 3

🥊 Humans vs Machines

🤖 7 AI models Al-Riyadi Beirut 62%

📐 Math model Al-Riyadi Beirut 54%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

Match center

Al-Riyadi Beirut - Sagesse Beirut

V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov i 3 ochnykh vstrech.

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 3 head-to-head matches

Market 2 model / bookmakers

Flashscore match data source checked

Odds match data source checked

Bookiesapi match data source checked

Line depth match data source checked

Present in data

Market Form Match Participants H2H Line Movement Overview

More needed

Tournament Championat, Flashscore

Lineup / squad Championat, Injuries

Market and Glicko

Basketball math model. The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Al-Riyadi Beirut 55.4% 54.4% market and model agree

Sagesse Beirut 44.6% 45.6%

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Basketball math model

P1 / P2 54.4% / 45.6% probabilities

Rating 1,916 / 2,291 Al-Riyadi Beirut / Sagesse Beirut

RD 198 / 261 rating uncertainty

r +/- 2RD 1,519-2,313 / 1,769-2,814 strength interval

HFA: 65 HFA mu: 0.374 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: no value found

The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 2.07 Fonbet · no value · model 45.6%

1 1.67 Fonbet · no value · model 54.4%

Total

Over 172.5 1.82 Fonbet · line only

Over 173.5 1.85 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →

bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Baltbet	Betcity	Fonbet	Leon
1.83 54.6%	1.86 53.8%	1.85 54.1%	—
1.83 54.6%	1.87 53.5%	1.85 54.1%	—
1.88 53.2%	—	1.85 54.1%	—
1.83 54.6%	1.84 54.4%	—	1.85 54.1%
1.83 54.6%	1.83 54.6%	—	1.85 54.1%
1.78 56.2%	—	—	—
—	—	1.85 54.1%	—
—	—	1.85 54.1%	—
—	—	1.85 54.1%	—

Total

Outcome	Baltbet	Betcity
Over 174.5	—	1.90 52.6%
Over 175.5	1.83 54.6%	1.83 54.6%
Over 176.5	1.83 54.6%	—
Over 177.5	1.80 55.6%	1.80 55.6%
Over 178.5	1.83 54.6%	1.80 55.6%
Over 179.5	1.83 54.6%	1.84 54.4%
Under 174.5	—	1.80 55.6%
Under 175.5	1.83 54.6%	1.87 53.5%
Under 176.5	1.83 54.6%	—
Under 177.5	1.86 53.8%	1.90 52.6%
Under 178.5	1.83 54.6%	—
Under 179.5	1.83 54.6%	—

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome	Baltbet	Betcity	Fonbet	Leon
	1.63 61.4%	1.66 60.2%	1.67 59.9%	1.70 58.8%
	2.00 50.0%	2.10 47.6%	2.07 48.3%	2.11 47.4%

Match center

Al-Riyadi Beirut

L W L W W

28.07 18:38 UTC LIVAN: Division 1 - Playoff

Al-Riyadi Beirut 78:90 Sagesse Beirut

27.07 16:40 UTC LIVAN: Division 1 - Playoff

Al-Riyadi Beirut 87:85 Sagesse Beirut

25.07 16:30 UTC LIVAN: Division 1 - Playoff

Al-Riyadi Beirut 96:101 Sagesse Beirut

23.07 16:30 UTC LIVAN: Division 1 - Playoff

Al-Riyadi Beirut 92:89 Sagesse Beirut

17.07 16:30 UTC LIVAN: Division 1 - Playoff

Al-Riyadi Beirut 90:65 Antonine

3 Wins

2 Losses

88.6 Scored

86.0 Conceded

60% Win percentage

Sagesse Beirut

W L W L W

28.07 18:38 UTC LIVAN: Division 1 - Playoff

Sagesse Beirut 90:78 Al-Riyadi Beyrut

27.07 16:40 UTC LIVAN: Division 1 - Playoff

Sagesse Beirut 85:87 Al-Riyadi Beyrut

25.07 16:30 UTC LIVAN: Division 1 - Playoff

Sagesse Beirut 101:96 Al-Riyadi Beyrut

23.07 16:30 UTC LIVAN: Division 1 - Playoff

Sagesse Beirut 89:92 Al-Riyadi Beyrut

19.07 16:30 UTC LIVAN: Division 1 - Playoff

Sagesse Beirut 95:83 Al Markazia

3 Wins

2 Losses

92.0 Scored

87.2 Conceded

60% Win percentage

Match center

Full head-to-head historyAl-Riyadi Beirut - Sagesse Beirut

Al-Riyadi Beirut

3 matches total

Sagesse Beirut

Al-Riyadi Beirut: 0 (0%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Sagesse Beirut: 3 (100%)

Biggest win Sagesse Beirut 78:90 (28.07 18:38 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 197 goals (96:101, 25.07 16:30 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

28.07 18:38 UTC LIVAN: Division 1 - Playoff

Al-Riyadi Beyrut

78:90

Sagesse Beirut

27.07 16:40 UTC LIVAN: Division 1 - Playoff

Al-Riyadi Beyrut

87:85

Sagesse Beirut

25.07 16:30 UTC LIVAN: Division 1 - Playoff

Al-Riyadi Beyrut

96:101

Sagesse Beirut