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Lebanon. First Division. Semi-finals. Best of 5
Lebanon. First Division. Semi-finals. Best of 5
03.08.2026 18:30 UTC
03.08.2026 18:30 UTC
Not started

Lebanon. First Division. Semi-finals. Best of 5

Al-Riyadi Beirut - Sagesse

Basketball
Al-Riyadi Beirut
Al-Riyadi Beirut
- : -
Not started
Sagesse
Sagesse

Al-Riyadi Beirut meet Sagesse on August 3, 2026 in the Lebanon. First Division. Semi-finals. Best of 5.

Recent form (W-D-L): Al-Riyadi Beirut 2-0-3, Sagesse 3-0-2. These sides have met 3 times recently — the head-to-head record is shown below. Scroll down for team stats, head-to-head record, odds and the PrognozAI AI pick.

🎯 PropickAI prediction
Medium confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Al-Riyadi Beirut — 60%

Pure model vs market (1 · Al-Riyadi Beirut): model 39% · market 62% Δ −23 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Al-Riyadi Beirut ✓ Pick60.1%
market62%
2 · Sagesse39.9%
market38%

Model estimate: win Al-Riyadi Beirut 60.1%, win Sagesse 39.9%. Model favourite — Al-Riyadi Beirut.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Al-Riyadi Beirut (odds1.67) Score 81:79 Under 174.5 (odds2.03) Handicap H2 +2.5 (odds1.85) confidence 54%
  • • Al-Riyadi Beyrut: forma PVPVP (2-3)
  • • Sagesse Beirut: forma VPVPV (3-2)
  • • ochnye 1-2 (za 3)
  • • Model backs Al-Riyadi Beyrut: probability 54% vs 60% on the line (odds 1.67)
  • • no edge over the line (-6 pp) — informational only
  • • Total: Under 174.5: model expects a total of ~160 ochk
  • • at line 174.5 (odds 2.03)
  • • Handicap F2 +2.5: score forecast 81:79 (diff +2) covers the line (odds 1.85).

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Al-Riyadi Beirut - Sagesse August 3, 2026

Basketball math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: Al-Riyadi Beirut. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 1.50 / 2 2.42

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 8.0%
1 ✓ Pick 61.7%
2 38.3%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Pobeditel P1 1.67 ↓ 1.50
Pobeditel P2 2.07 ↑ 2.42

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

Head-to-head and form stats

Head-to-head and form

Team form

Al-Riyadi Beirut
1-4LWLLL
points for 86.9points against 86.2
Sagesse
4-1WLWWW
points for 103.0points against 91.9

Head-to-head and recent form per sports statistics — for reference.

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Match center
Start 03.08.2026 18:30 UTC
Market 1 61.7% @ 1.50 / 2 38.3% @ 2.42
Form 6 matches
H2H 3
Match center

Al-Riyadi Beirut - Sagesse

V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov i 3 ochnykh vstrech.

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 3 head-to-head matches
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Flashscore match data source checked
Odds match data source checked
Bookiesapi match data source checked
Line depth match data source checked
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants H2H Line Movement Overview
More needed
Tournament Championat, Flashscore
Lineup / squad Championat, Injuries
Market and Glicko

Basketball math model. The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Al-Riyadi Beirut 61.7% 60.1% market and model agree
Sagesse 38.3% 39.9%

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Basketball math model
P1 / P2 60.1% / 39.9% probabilities
Rating 1,912 / 2,398 Al-Riyadi Beirut / Sagesse Beirut
RD 198 / 250 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,517-2,307 / 1,898-2,899 strength interval
HFA: 65 HFA mu: 0.374 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: no value found

The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.42 Fonbet · no value · model 39.9%
1 1.50 Fonbet · no value · model 60.1%
Total
Over 173.5 1.70 Fonbet · line only
Over 174.5 1.70 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
— — 1.75 57.1%
1.83 54.6% 1.88 53.2% —
1.83 54.6% 1.83 54.6% —
1.83 54.6% — —
— — 2.37 42.2%
1.83 54.6% 1.82 55.0% —
1.83 54.6% 1.87 53.5% —
1.83 54.6% — —
— — 1.96 51.0%
— — 2.07 48.3%
— — 1.96 51.0%
— — 1.85 54.1%
— — 1.75 57.1%
— — 1.67 59.9%

Total

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
Over 173.5 — — 1.70 58.8%
Over 174.5 — — 1.70 58.8%
Over 175.5 1.80 55.6% — 1.70 58.8%
Over 176.5 1.83 54.6% 1.88 53.2% 1.77 56.5%
Over 177.5 1.83 54.6% — 1.85 54.1%
Over 178.5 — — 1.94 51.6%
Over 179.5 — — 2.03 49.3%
Under 173.5 — — 2.03 49.3%
Under 174.5 — — 2.03 49.3%
Under 175.5 1.86 53.8% — 2.03 49.3%
Under 176.5 1.83 54.6% 1.82 55.0% —
Under 177.5 1.83 54.6% — —

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet Leon
1.46 68.5% 1.55 64.5% 1.50 66.7% 1.53 65.4%
2.37 42.2% 2.30 43.5% 2.42 41.3% 2.47 40.5%
Match center
Al-Riyadi Beirut
L W L W L
2026-08-01 Division 1 25/26, Playoffs
Al-Riyadi Beirut Sagesse 96:65 Al-Riyadi Beirut
2026-07-30 Division 1 25/26, Playoffs
Al-Riyadi Beirut Al-Riyadi Beirut 99:86 Sagesse
2026-07-28 Division 1 25/26, Playoffs
Al-Riyadi Beirut Sagesse 90:78 Al-Riyadi Beirut
2026-07-26 Division 1 25/26, Playoffs
Al-Riyadi Beirut Al-Riyadi Beirut 87:85 Sagesse
2026-07-24 Division 1 25/26, Playoffs
Al-Riyadi Beirut Sagesse 101:96 Al-Riyadi Beirut
2 Wins
3 Losses
85.0 Scored
91.6 Conceded
40% Win percentage
Sagesse
W L W L W
2026-08-01 Division 1 25/26, Playoffs
Sagesse 96:65 Al-Riyadi Beirut Sagesse
2026-07-30 Division 1 25/26, Playoffs
Al-Riyadi Beirut 99:86 Sagesse Sagesse
2026-07-28 Division 1 25/26, Playoffs
Sagesse 90:78 Al-Riyadi Beirut Sagesse
2026-07-26 Division 1 25/26, Playoffs
Al-Riyadi Beirut 87:85 Sagesse Sagesse
2026-07-24 Division 1 25/26, Playoffs
Sagesse 101:96 Al-Riyadi Beirut Sagesse
3 Wins
2 Losses
91.6 Scored
85.0 Conceded
60% Win percentage
Match center

Full head-to-head historyAl-Riyadi Beirut - Sagesse

Al-Riyadi Beirut
3 matches total
Sagesse
Al-Riyadi Beirut: 1 (33.3%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Sagesse: 2 (66.7%)
Biggest win Sagesse 96:65 (2026-08-01) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 185 goals (99:86, 2026-07-30) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

2026-08-01 Division 1 25/26, Playoffs
Sagesse 96:65 Al-Riyadi Beirut
2026-07-30 Division 1 25/26, Playoffs
Al-Riyadi Beirut 99:86 Sagesse
2026-07-28 Division 1 25/26, Playoffs
Sagesse 90:78 Al-Riyadi Beirut