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Lebanon. First Division. Semi-finals. Best of 5

28.07.2026 16:30 UTC

Not started

Lebanon. First Division. Semi-finals. Best of 5

Sagesse Beirut - Al-Riyadi Beirut

Basketball

Sagesse Beirut

- : -

Not started

Al-Riyadi Beirut

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Sagesse Beirut — 52%

Pure model vs market (1 · Sagesse Beirut): model 43% · market 55% Δ −12 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Sagesse Beirut51.7%

2 · Al-Riyadi Beirut48.3%

Model estimate: win Sagesse Beirut 51.7%, win Al-Riyadi Beirut 48.3%. Model favourite — Sagesse Beirut.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Sagesse Beirut (odds1.90) Score 81:79 confidence 59%

• Sagesse Beirut: forma VPVPV (3-2)
• Al-Riyadi Beyrut: forma PVVVV (4-1)
• ochnye 1 (za 2)
• Model backs Sagesse Beirut: probability 59% vs 53% on the line (odds 1.90)
• edge over the line +6 pp — value pick.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Sagesse Beirut - Al-Riyadi Beirut July 28, 2026

Basketball math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: Sagesse Beirut. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

Win odds (Fonbet): 1 1.67 / 2 2.07

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

Winner bookmaker margin 8.2%

1 55.3%

2 44.7%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

Pobeditel P1 1.67 → 1.67

Pobeditel P2 2.07 → 2.07

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome

Agreement 1/1

Confidence 62.0%

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

Head-to-head and form stats

Head-to-head and form

Team form

Sagesse Beirut

4-1WLWWW

points for 103.0points against 91.9

Al-Riyadi Beirut

1-4LWLLL

points for 86.9points against 86.2

Head-to-head and recent form per sports statistics — for reference.

AI overview

AI predictions

AI analysis:1/7 ready · Still preparing:DeepSeek, ChatGPT, Claude, Qwen, Kimi, GLM 5.2

Google AI updated28.07.2026 18:16 UTC

1 55% ✓ favourite

2 45%

Score91:88 Total points: Over 176.5 Bet:Win Sagesse (1)

AI	1	2	Score	Total points	Bet
Google AI	55%	45%	91:88	Over 176.5	Win Sagesse (1)

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Match center

Start 28.07.2026 16:30 UTC

Form 6 matches

H2H 3

🥊 Humans vs Machines

🤖 7 AI models Sagesse Beirut 55%

📐 Math model Sagesse Beirut 52%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

Match center

Sagesse Beirut - Al-Riyadi Beirut

V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov i 3 ochnykh vstrech.

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 3 head-to-head matches

Market 2 model / bookmakers

Flashscore match data source checked

Odds match data source checked

Bookiesapi match data source checked

Line depth match data source checked

Present in data

Market Form Match Participants H2H Line Movement Overview

More needed

Tournament Championat, Flashscore

Lineup / squad Championat, Injuries

Market and Glicko

Basketball math model. The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Sagesse Beirut 52.3% 51.7% market and model agree

Al-Riyadi Beirut 47.7% 48.3%

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Basketball math model

P1 / P2 51.7% / 48.3% probabilities

Rating 1,858 / 2,121 Sagesse Beirut / Al-Riyadi Beirut

RD 315 / 214 rating uncertainty

r +/- 2RD 1,229-2,488 / 1,694-2,549 strength interval

HFA: 65 HFA mu: 0.374 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: no value found

The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 2.07 Fonbet · no value · model 48.3%

1 1.67 Fonbet · no value · model 51.7%

Total

Over 173.5 1.85 Fonbet · line only

Over 175.5 1.82 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →

bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Baltbet	Betcity	Fonbet
1.83 54.6%	1.90 52.6%	—
1.84 54.4%	1.90 52.6%	—
1.84 54.4%	1.85 54.1%	—
1.83 54.6%	1.87 53.5%	—
1.83 54.6%	1.80 55.6%	—
1.83 54.6%	1.85 54.1%	—
1.83 54.6%	1.83 54.6%	—
1.83 54.6%	1.80 55.6%	1.85 54.1%
—	—	1.82 55.0%

Total

Outcome	Baltbet	Betcity
Over 173.5	1.83 54.6%	1.83 54.6%
Over 175.5	1.83 54.6%	1.83 54.6%
Over 176.5	1.80 55.6%	1.82 55.0%
Over 177.5	1.83 54.6%	1.84 54.4%
Over 178.5	1.84 54.4%	1.85 54.1%
Over 179.5	1.83 54.6%	1.87 53.5%
Under 173.5	1.83 54.6%	—
Under 175.5	1.83 54.6%	—
Under 176.5	1.86 53.8%	—
Under 177.5	1.83 54.6%	—
Under 178.5	1.83 54.6%	—
Under 179.5	1.83 54.6%	—

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome	Baltbet	Betcity	Fonbet	Leon
	1.76 56.8%	1.79 55.9%	1.67 59.9%	1.80 55.6%
	1.92 52.1%	1.90 52.6%	2.07 48.3%	1.98 50.5%

Match center

Form & head-to-head

H2H 2-0-8

2026-07-26 · Sadzhesse 85:87 Al-Riyadi

2026-07-24 · Sadzhesse 101:96 Al-Riyadi

2026-07-22 · Sadzhesse 89:92 Al-Riyadi

2026-05-30 · Sadzhesse 86:94 Al-Riyadi

2026-01-03 · Sadzhesse 114:122 Al-Riyadi

Source: ruscore

Sagesse Beirut

L W L W L

27.07 16:40 UTC LIVAN: Division 1 - Playoff

Sagesse Beirut 85:87 Al-Riyadi Beyrut

25.07 16:30 UTC LIVAN: Division 1 - Playoff

Sagesse Beirut 101:96 Al-Riyadi Beyrut

23.07 16:30 UTC LIVAN: Division 1 - Playoff

Sagesse Beirut 89:92 Al-Riyadi Beyrut

19.07 16:30 UTC LIVAN: Division 1 - Playoff

Sagesse Beirut 95:83 Al Markazia

15.07 15:30 UTC LIVAN: Division 1 - Playoff

Sagesse Beirut 74:75 Al Markazia

2 Wins

3 Losses

88.8 Scored

86.6 Conceded

40% Win percentage

Al-Riyadi Beirut

W L W W W

27.07 16:40 UTC LIVAN: Division 1 - Playoff

Al-Riyadi Beirut 87:85 Sagesse Beirut

25.07 16:30 UTC LIVAN: Division 1 - Playoff

Al-Riyadi Beirut 96:101 Sagesse Beirut

23.07 16:30 UTC LIVAN: Division 1 - Playoff

Al-Riyadi Beirut 92:89 Sagesse Beirut

17.07 16:30 UTC LIVAN: Division 1 - Playoff

Al-Riyadi Beirut 90:65 Antonine

14.07 15:30 UTC LIVAN: Division 1 - Playoff

Al-Riyadi Beirut 113:81 Antonine

4 Wins

1 Losses

95.6 Scored

84.2 Conceded

80% Win percentage

Match center

Full head-to-head historySagesse Beirut - Al-Riyadi Beirut

Sagesse Beirut

3 matches total

Al-Riyadi Beirut

Sagesse Beirut: 1 (33.3%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Al-Riyadi Beirut: 2 (66.7%)

Biggest win Sagesse Beirut 101:96 (25.07 16:30 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 197 goals (101:96, 25.07 16:30 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

27.07 16:40 UTC LIVAN: Division 1 - Playoff

Sagesse Beirut

85:87

Al-Riyadi Beyrut

25.07 16:30 UTC LIVAN: Division 1 - Playoff

Sagesse Beirut

101:96

Al-Riyadi Beyrut

23.07 16:30 UTC LIVAN: Division 1 - Playoff

Sagesse Beirut

89:92

Al-Riyadi Beyrut