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Lebanon. First Division. Semi-finals. Best of 5

01.08.2026 18:30 UTC

Not started

Lebanon. First Division. Semi-finals. Best of 5

Sagesse Beirut - Al-Riyadi Beirut

Basketball

Sagesse Beirut

- : -

Not started

Al-Riyadi Beirut

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Medium confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Sagesse Beirut — 58%

Pure model vs market (1 · Sagesse Beirut): model 62% · market 62% Δ 0 pp model estimate matches the market

1 · Sagesse Beirut ✓ Pick57.7%

2 · Al-Riyadi Beirut42.3%

Model estimate: win Sagesse Beirut 57.7%, win Al-Riyadi Beirut 42.3%. Model favourite — Sagesse Beirut.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Sagesse Beirut (odds1.66) Score 82:78 confidence 62%

• Sagesse Beirut: forma VPVPV (3-2)
• Al-Riyadi Beyrut: forma PVPVV (3-2)
• ochnye 2-1 (za 3)
• Model backs Sagesse Beirut: probability 62% vs 60% on the line (odds 1.66)
• legkiy pereves +2 pp nad liniey.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Sagesse Beirut - Al-Riyadi Beirut August 1, 2026

Basketball math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: Sagesse Beirut. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

Win odds (Fonbet): 1 1.50 / 2 2.42

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

Winner bookmaker margin 8.0%

1 ✓ Pick 61.7%

2 38.3%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

Pobeditel P1 1.67 → 1.67

Pobeditel P2 2.07 → 2.07

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

Head-to-head and form stats

Head-to-head and form

Team form

Sagesse Beirut

4-1WLWWW

points for 103.0points against 91.9

Al-Riyadi Beirut

1-4LWLLL

points for 86.9points against 86.2

Head-to-head and recent form per sports statistics — for reference.

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Match center

Start 01.08.2026 18:30 UTC

Market 1 61.7% @ 1.50 / 2 38.3% @ 2.42

Form 6 matches

H2H 3

Match center

Sagesse Beirut - Al-Riyadi Beirut

V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov i 3 ochnykh vstrech.

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 3 head-to-head matches

Market 2 model / bookmakers

Flashscore match data source checked

Odds match data source checked

Bookiesapi match data source checked

Line depth match data source checked

Present in data

Market Form Match Participants H2H Line Movement Overview

More needed

Tournament Championat, Flashscore

Lineup / squad Championat, Injuries

Market and Glicko

Basketball math model. The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Sagesse Beirut 57.4% 57.7% market and model agree

Al-Riyadi Beirut 42.6% 42.3%

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Basketball math model

P1 / P2 57.7% / 42.3% probabilities

Rating 2,291 / 1,916 Sagesse Beirut / Al-Riyadi Beirut

RD 261 / 198 rating uncertainty

r +/- 2RD 1,769-2,814 / 1,519-2,313 strength interval

HFA: 65 HFA mu: 0.374 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: no value found

The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 2.42 Fonbet · no value · model 42.3%

1 1.50 Fonbet · no value · model 57.7%

Total

Over 179.5 1.85 Fonbet · line only

Over 180.5 1.82 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →

bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Baltbet	Betcity	Fonbet	Leon
1.83 54.6%	1.87 53.5%	1.85 54.1%	—
1.83 54.6%	1.80 55.6%	1.85 54.1%	—
1.83 54.6%	—	1.85 54.1%	—
1.83 54.6%	1.83 54.6%	—	1.85 54.1%
1.83 54.6%	1.90 52.6%	—	1.85 54.1%
1.83 54.6%	—	—	—
—	—	1.85 54.1%	—
—	—	1.85 54.1%	—
—	—	1.85 54.1%	—

Total

Outcome	Baltbet	Betcity	Fonbet	Leon
Over 179.5	1.83 54.6%	1.82 55.0%	1.85 54.1%	1.85 54.1%
Over 180.5	1.80 55.6%	—	1.82 55.0%	1.82 55.0%
Over 181.5	—	1.90 52.6%	—	—
Under 179.5	1.83 54.6%	1.88 53.2%	1.85 54.1%	1.85 54.1%
Under 180.5	1.86 53.8%	—	1.88 53.2%	1.88 53.2%
Under 181.5	—	1.80 55.6%	—	—

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome	Baltbet	Betcity	Fonbet	Leon
	1.46 68.5%	1.53 65.4%	1.50 66.7%	1.53 65.4%
	2.37 42.2%	2.35 42.6%	2.42 41.3%	2.47 40.5%

Match center

Sagesse Beirut

L W L W L

31.07 16:30 UTC LIVAN: Division 1 - Playoff

Sagesse Beirut 86:99 Al-Riyadi Beyrut

28.07 18:38 UTC LIVAN: Division 1 - Playoff

Sagesse Beirut 90:78 Al-Riyadi Beyrut

27.07 16:40 UTC LIVAN: Division 1 - Playoff

Sagesse Beirut 85:87 Al-Riyadi Beyrut

25.07 16:30 UTC LIVAN: Division 1 - Playoff

Sagesse Beirut 101:96 Al-Riyadi Beyrut

23.07 16:30 UTC LIVAN: Division 1 - Playoff

Sagesse Beirut 89:92 Al-Riyadi Beyrut

2 Wins

3 Losses

90.2 Scored

90.4 Conceded

40% Win percentage

Al-Riyadi Beirut

W L W L W

31.07 16:30 UTC LIVAN: Division 1 - Playoff

Al-Riyadi Beirut 99:86 Sagesse Beirut

28.07 18:38 UTC LIVAN: Division 1 - Playoff

Al-Riyadi Beirut 78:90 Sagesse Beirut

27.07 16:40 UTC LIVAN: Division 1 - Playoff

Al-Riyadi Beirut 87:85 Sagesse Beirut

25.07 16:30 UTC LIVAN: Division 1 - Playoff

Al-Riyadi Beirut 96:101 Sagesse Beirut

23.07 16:30 UTC LIVAN: Division 1 - Playoff

Al-Riyadi Beirut 92:89 Sagesse Beirut

3 Wins

2 Losses

90.4 Scored

90.2 Conceded

60% Win percentage

Match center

Full head-to-head historySagesse Beirut - Al-Riyadi Beirut

Sagesse Beirut

3 matches total

Al-Riyadi Beirut

Sagesse Beirut: 1 (33.3%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Al-Riyadi Beirut: 2 (66.7%)

Biggest win Al-Riyadi Beyrut 86:99 (31.07 16:30 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 185 goals (86:99, 31.07 16:30 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

31.07 16:30 UTC LIVAN: Division 1 - Playoff

Sagesse Beirut

86:99

Al-Riyadi Beyrut

28.07 18:38 UTC LIVAN: Division 1 - Playoff

Sagesse Beirut

90:78

Al-Riyadi Beyrut

27.07 16:40 UTC LIVAN: Division 1 - Playoff

Sagesse Beirut

85:87

Al-Riyadi Beyrut