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Lebanon. First Division. Semi-finals. Best of 5
Lebanon. First Division. Semi-finals. Best of 5
28.07.2026 18:38 UTC
28.07.2026 18:38 UTC
Not started

Lebanon. First Division. Semi-finals. Best of 5

Sagesse Beirut - Al-Riyadi Beirut

Basketball
Sagesse Beirut
Sagesse Beirut
- : -
Not started
Al-Riyadi Beirut
Al-Riyadi Beirut
🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Sagesse Beirut — 52%

Pure model vs market (1 · Sagesse Beirut): model 43% · market 61% Δ −18 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Sagesse Beirut51.7%
2 · Al-Riyadi Beirut48.3%

Model estimate: win Sagesse Beirut 51.7%, win Al-Riyadi Beirut 48.3%. Model favourite — Sagesse Beirut.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Sagesse Beirut (odds1.90) Score 81:79 confidence 59%
  • • Sagesse Beirut: forma VPVPV (3-2)
  • • Al-Riyadi Beyrut: forma PVVVV (4-1)
  • • ochnye 1 (za 2)
  • • Model backs Sagesse Beirut: probability 59% vs 53% on the line (odds 1.90)
  • • edge over the line +6 pp — value pick.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Sagesse Beirut - Al-Riyadi Beirut July 28, 2026

Basketball math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: Sagesse Beirut. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 1.50 / 2 2.35

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 9.2%
1 61.0%
2 39.0%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Pobeditel P1 1.67 ↓ 1.35
Pobeditel P2 2.07 ↑ 2.80

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 1/1
Confidence 62.0%

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

Head-to-head and form stats

Head-to-head and form

Team form

Sagesse Beirut
4-1WLWWW
points for 103.0points against 91.9
Al-Riyadi Beirut
1-4LWLLL
points for 86.9points against 86.2

Head-to-head and recent form per sports statistics — for reference.

LIVE

Now in play

score 51:48 · 26'

Current match situation. Updates every ~3 min.

LIVE

1X2 probabilities (live, from the line)

26'
61% 39%
Sagesse Beirut (1) Al-Riyadi Beirut (2)

Implied probabilities from the Fonbet live line (1/odds, normalized). For reference.

AI overview

AI predictions

AI analysis:1/7 ready · Still preparing:DeepSeek, ChatGPT, Claude, Qwen, Kimi, GLM 5.2

Google AI updated28.07.2026 18:16 UTC
1 55% ✓ favourite
2 45%
Score91:88 Total points: Over 176.5 Bet:Win Sagesse (1)
AI 1 2 Score Total points Bet
Google AI 55% 45% 91:88 Over 176.5 Win Sagesse (1)

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Match center
Start 28.07.2026 18:38 UTC
Form 6 matches
H2H 3
🥊 Humans vs Machines
🤖 7 AI models Sagesse Beirut 55%
📐 Math model Sagesse Beirut 52%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Sagesse Beirut - Al-Riyadi Beirut

V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov i 3 ochnykh vstrech.

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 3 head-to-head matches
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Flashscore match data source checked
Odds match data source checked
Bookiesapi match data source checked
Line depth match data source checked
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants H2H Line Movement Overview
More needed
Tournament Championat, Flashscore
Lineup / squad Championat, Injuries
Market and Glicko

Basketball math model. The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Sagesse Beirut 52.3% 51.7% market and model agree
Al-Riyadi Beirut 47.7% 48.3%

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Basketball math model
P1 / P2 51.7% / 48.3% probabilities
Rating 1,858 / 2,121 Sagesse Beirut / Al-Riyadi Beirut
RD 315 / 214 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,229-2,488 / 1,694-2,549 strength interval
HFA: 65 HFA mu: 0.374 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: no value found

The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.35 Fonbet · weak value +13.6% · model 48.3%
1 1.50 Fonbet · no value · model 51.7%
Total
Over 159.5 1.80 Fonbet · line only
Over 160.5 1.87 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
1.83 54.6% 1.90 52.6% —
1.84 54.4% 1.90 52.6% —
1.84 54.4% 1.85 54.1% —
1.83 54.6% 1.87 53.5% —
1.83 54.6% 1.80 55.6% —
1.83 54.6% 1.85 54.1% —
1.83 54.6% 1.83 54.6% —
1.83 54.6% 1.80 55.6% 1.75 57.1%
— — 1.85 54.1%

Total

Outcome Baltbet Betcity
Over 173.5 1.83 54.6% 1.83 54.6%
Over 175.5 1.83 54.6% 1.83 54.6%
Over 176.5 1.80 55.6% 1.82 55.0%
Over 177.5 1.83 54.6% 1.84 54.4%
Over 178.5 1.84 54.4% 1.85 54.1%
Over 179.5 1.83 54.6% 1.87 53.5%
Under 173.5 1.83 54.6% —
Under 175.5 1.83 54.6% —
Under 176.5 1.86 53.8% —
Under 177.5 1.83 54.6% —
Under 178.5 1.83 54.6% —
Under 179.5 1.83 54.6% —

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet Leon
1.76 56.8% 1.79 55.9% 1.50 66.7% 1.80 55.6%
1.92 52.1% 1.90 52.6% 2.35 42.6% 1.98 50.5%
Match center

Form & head-to-head

H2H 2-0-8
2026-07-26 · Sadzhesse 85:87 Al-Riyadi
2026-07-24 · Sadzhesse 101:96 Al-Riyadi
2026-07-22 · Sadzhesse 89:92 Al-Riyadi
2026-05-30 · Sadzhesse 86:94 Al-Riyadi
2026-01-03 · Sadzhesse 114:122 Al-Riyadi
Source: ruscore
Sagesse Beirut
L W L W L
27.07 16:40 UTC LIVAN: Division 1 - Playoff
Sagesse Beirut 85:87 Al-Riyadi BeyrutAl-Riyadi Beyrut
25.07 16:30 UTC LIVAN: Division 1 - Playoff
Sagesse Beirut 101:96 Al-Riyadi BeyrutAl-Riyadi Beyrut
23.07 16:30 UTC LIVAN: Division 1 - Playoff
Sagesse Beirut 89:92 Al-Riyadi BeyrutAl-Riyadi Beyrut
19.07 16:30 UTC LIVAN: Division 1 - Playoff
Sagesse Beirut 95:83 Al MarkaziaAl Markazia
15.07 15:30 UTC LIVAN: Division 1 - Playoff
Sagesse Beirut 74:75 Al MarkaziaAl Markazia
2 Wins
3 Losses
88.8 Scored
86.6 Conceded
40% Win percentage
Al-Riyadi Beirut
W L W W W
27.07 16:40 UTC LIVAN: Division 1 - Playoff
Al-Riyadi Beirut 87:85 Sagesse BeirutSagesse Beirut
25.07 16:30 UTC LIVAN: Division 1 - Playoff
Al-Riyadi Beirut 96:101 Sagesse BeirutSagesse Beirut
23.07 16:30 UTC LIVAN: Division 1 - Playoff
Al-Riyadi Beirut 92:89 Sagesse BeirutSagesse Beirut
17.07 16:30 UTC LIVAN: Division 1 - Playoff
Al-Riyadi Beirut 90:65 AntonineAntonine
14.07 15:30 UTC LIVAN: Division 1 - Playoff
Al-Riyadi Beirut 113:81 AntonineAntonine
4 Wins
1 Losses
95.6 Scored
84.2 Conceded
80% Win percentage
Match center

Full head-to-head historySagesse Beirut - Al-Riyadi Beirut

Sagesse Beirut
3 matches total
Al-Riyadi Beirut
Sagesse Beirut: 1 (33.3%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Al-Riyadi Beirut: 2 (66.7%)
Biggest win Sagesse Beirut 101:96 (25.07 16:30 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 197 goals (101:96, 25.07 16:30 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

27.07 16:40 UTC LIVAN: Division 1 - Playoff
Sagesse Beirut
85:87
Al-Riyadi Beyrut
25.07 16:30 UTC LIVAN: Division 1 - Playoff
Sagesse Beirut
101:96
Al-Riyadi Beyrut
23.07 16:30 UTC LIVAN: Division 1 - Playoff
Sagesse Beirut
89:92
Al-Riyadi Beyrut