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AI verdict

AI pick Astros Jalisco win probability ~58% confidence Medium best odds 1.59

Model consensus and the Glicko-2 rating lean to Astros Jalisco. Full breakdown below.

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Mexico. LNBP
Mexico. LNBP
17.08.2026 00:05 UTC Match prediction
✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form ✓H2H ✓Prediction
17.08.2026 00:05 UTC
Finished

Mexico. LNBP

Mineros de Zacatecas - Astros Jalisco

Basketball
Mineros de Zacatecas
Mineros de Zacatecas
89 : 83
Finished
Astros Jalisco
Astros Jalisco

Mineros de Zacatecas take on Astros Jalisco on August 17, 2026 in the Mexico. LNBP.

Recent form (W-D-L): Mineros de Zacatecas 5-0-0, Astros Jalisco 3-0-2. These sides have met 3 times recently — the head-to-head record is shown below. PropickAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 42% to win. Read on for detailed stats, previous meetings, the bookmaker line and the PropickAI neural-network verdict.

🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Astros Jalisco — 58%

1 · Mineros de Zacatecas42.2%
2 · Astros Jalisco57.8%

Model estimate: win Mineros de Zacatecas 42.2%, win Astros Jalisco 57.8%. Model favourite — Astros Jalisco.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

How we calculated thisModel, consensus and market breakdown
AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Mineros de Zacatecas (odds1.69) Score 81:79 confidence 56% ✓ outcome correct
  • • Mineros: forma VVVVV (5-0)
  • • Astros: forma VVVVV (5-0)
  • • Model backs Mineros: probability 56% vs 59% on the line (odds 1.69)
  • • no edge over the line (-4 pp) — informational only.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Mineros de Zacatecas - Astros Jalisco August 17, 2026

Basketball math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Astros Jalisco.

Line favourite market consensus: Astros Jalisco. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (market consensus): 1 2.49 / 2 1.59
  • Glicko: Mineros de Zacatecas 42.2% / Astros Jalisco 57.8%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 8.2% 5 books
1 41.5%
2 58.5%

Odds source: consensus of 5 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Kambi BetMGM, Kambi Unibet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

%

Market consensus

Forecast by market

Match result
Mineros de Zacatecas
41%
2.49
Astros Jalisco
59%
1.59
Handicap
Mineros de Zacatecas (2.5)
50%
1.84
Astros Jalisco (2.5)
50%
1.87
Total
Over 171.5
51%
1.86
Under 171.5
49%
1.90

Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.

Standing in the tournament

League table

Mineros de Zacatecas
#313 ptsGP 85-3
Astros Jalisco
#118 ptsGP 108-2

Team positions in the current tournament per official statistics — for reference.

Head-to-head and form stats

Head-to-head and form

Head-to-head

8Wins9
91.0Points on average88.4

Head-to-head matches: 17 · average total 179.4 (points)

Team form

Mineros de Zacatecas
7-3LLWLWWWWWW
points for 89.0points against 82.6
Astros Jalisco
8-2WWWWLWWWWL
points for 89.0points against 78.9

Head-to-head and recent form per sports statistics — for reference.

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Match center
Start 17.08.2026 00:05 UTC
Market 1 39.0% @ 2.49 / 2 61.0% @ 1.59
Form 6 matches
H2H 1
🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Astros Jalisco 58%
💹 Market Astros Jalisco 59%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
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Match center

Mineros de Zacatecas - Astros Jalisco

V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov i 1 ochnykh vstrech.

Form 3/5 recent games
H2H 3 head-to-head matches
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Post-match / PropickAI database
Score 89:83
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table away - 57.8% fact: home missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 0.669 / LogLoss 0.863
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table away - 53.1% fact: home missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 0.565 / LogLoss 0.758
Market and Glicko

Basketball math model. The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Mineros de Zacatecas 41.5% 42.2%
Astros Jalisco 58.5% 57.8% market and model agree
1X2: 5 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Basketball math model
P1 / P2 42.2% / 57.8% probabilities
Rating 1,956 / 1,980 Mineros de Zacatecas / Astros Jalisco
RD 159 / 155 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,638-2,274 / 1,670-2,289 strength interval

The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.56 market consensus · no value · model 57.8%
1 2.27 market consensus · no value · model 42.2%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.75 market consensus · line only
2 0.5 1.82 market consensus · line only
1 -0.5 1.87 market consensus · line only
1 0.5 1.91 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 166.5 1.80 market consensus · line only
Over 167.5 1.81 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Kambi BetMGM
1.83 54.6% 1.83 54.6% —
1.81 55.3% 1.81 55.3% —
1.86 53.8% — —
1.84 54.4% — —
— — 1.75 57.1%
— — 1.90 52.6%
1.87 53.5% 1.87 53.5% 1.86 53.8%
1.89 52.9% 1.89 52.9% 1.82 55.0%
— — 1.79 55.9%
— — 1.95 51.3%
— — 1.78 56.2%
— — 1.87 53.5%

Total

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Kambi BetMGM
Over 167.5 — — 1.80 55.6%
Over 168.5 1.86 53.8% 1.86 53.8% 1.88 53.2%
Over 169.5 — — 1.96 51.0%
Over 170.5 1.85 54.1% — 1.77 56.5%
Over 171.5 1.86 53.8% 1.86 53.8% 1.80 55.6%
Over 172.5 — — 1.87 53.5%
Over 173.5 — — 1.96 51.0%
Over 174.5 — — 1.96 51.0%
Under 168.5 1.84 54.4% 1.84 54.4% —
Under 170.5 1.85 54.1% — —
Under 171.5 1.84 54.4% 1.84 54.4% —

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Kambi BetMGM Kambi Unibet Leon
2.20 45.5% 2.20 45.5% 2.23 44.8% 2.23 44.8% 2.49 40.2%
1.59 62.9% 1.59 62.9% 1.58 63.3% 1.58 63.3% 1.47 68.0%
Match center

Form & head-to-head

H2H 2-0-8
2026-08-17 · Mineros de Zakatekas 89:83 Astros de Khalisko
2026-08-16 · Mineros de Zakatekas 94:88 Astros de Khalisko
2025-09-20 · Mineros de Zakatekas 83:97 Astros de Khalisko
2025-09-19 · Mineros de Zakatekas 66:78 Astros de Khalisko
2024-09-15 · Mineros de Zakatekas 79:103 Astros de Khalisko
Source: ruscore
Mineros de Zacatecas
W W W
2026-08-16 LNBP 2026
Mineros de Zacatecas Mineros de Zacatecas 94:88 Astros Jalisco
2026-08-07 LNBP 2026
Mineros de Zacatecas Mineros de Zacatecas 98:76 Correcaminos
2026-08-06 LNBP 2026
Mineros de Zacatecas Mineros de Zacatecas 95:76 Correcaminos
3 Wins
0 Losses
95.7 Scored
80.0 Conceded
100% Win percentage
Astros Jalisco
L W W W L
2026-08-16 LNBP 2026
Mineros de Zacatecas 94:88 Astros Jalisco Astros Jalisco
2026-08-07 LNBP 2026
Abejas de Leon 83:95 Astros Jalisco Astros Jalisco
2026-08-06 LNBP 2026
Abejas de Leon 90:103 Astros Jalisco Astros Jalisco
2026-07-26 LNBP 2026
Gambusinos De Fresnillo 80:88 Astros Jalisco Astros Jalisco
2026-07-25 LNBP 2026
Gambusinos De Fresnillo 86:71 Astros Jalisco Astros Jalisco
3 Wins
2 Losses
89.0 Scored
86.6 Conceded
60% Win percentage
Match center

Full head-to-head history: Mineros de Zacatecas - Astros Jalisco

Mineros de Zacatecas
3 matches total
Astros Jalisco
Mineros de Zacatecas: 1 (33.3%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Astros Jalisco: 2 (66.7%)
Biggest win Astros Jalisco 83:97 (2025-09-20) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 182 goals (94:88, 2026-08-16) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

2026-08-16 LNBP 2026
Mineros de Zacatecas 94:88 Astros Jalisco
2025-09-20 LNBP 2026
Mineros de Zacatecas 83:97 Astros Jalisco
2025-09-19 LNBP 2026
Mineros de Zacatecas 66:78 Astros Jalisco

Recent form

Mineros de Zacatecas WWWWWW
Astros Jalisco LLWWWW

Standings

# PWL+/-Pts
1Astros Jalisco12848020
2Soles de Mexicali10829118
3Mineros de Zacatecas10736417
4Diablos Rojos Del Mexico1046814
5El Calor de Cancun1046-3014
6Gambusinos De Fresnillo1037-4713

Sportradar · Winline StatsHub

Team form & streaks

Mineros de Zacatecas WWWWWW
Winning streak: 4
Astros Jalisco LLWWWW

Sportradar · Winline StatsHub

Match facts

Stadium: Gimnasio Marcelino Gonzalez, Zacatecas

Sportradar · Winline StatsHub

More predictions

Soles de Mexicali – Mineros de Zacatecas 21.08 Soles de Mexicali – Mineros de Zacatecas 22.08 Freseros – El Calor de Cancun 20.08 Dorados – Abejas de Leon 20.08 Fuerza Regia – Gambusinos 20.08 Freseros – El Calor de Cancun 21.08

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Mineros de Zacatecas vs Astros Jalisco?

By the PropickAI model, Astros Jalisco is favoured — about 58% win probability.

What does PropickAI predict for Mineros de Zacatecas vs Astros Jalisco?

The consensus of 7 AI models and the Glicko-2 rating leans to Astros Jalisco. Full probabilities and bookmaker odds are shown on this page.

When does Mineros de Zacatecas vs Astros Jalisco start?

August 17, 2026.