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AI verdict

AI pick Soles de Mexicali win probability ~82% confidence High best odds 1.12

Model consensus and the Glicko-2 rating lean to Soles de Mexicali. Full breakdown below.

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Mexico. LNBP
Mexico. LNBP
30.08.2026 02:00 UTC
✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form ✓H2H ✓Prediction
30.08.2026 02:00 UTC
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Mexico. LNBP

Soles de Mexicali vs El Calor de Cancun — Basketball prediction

Basketball
Soles de Mexicali
Soles de Mexicali
- : -
Not started
E
El Calor de Cancun

Soles de Mexicali go head-to-head with El Calor de Cancun in basketball, in Mexico. LNBP, on 30 August 2026. Our Glicko-2 rating model leans to Soles de Mexicali: roughly 82% to win. The bookmaker consensus (2 books) implies about 83% for the same outcome.

Recent form reads: Soles de Mexicali have 4 won and 1 lost of their last 5; El Calor de Cancun have 1 won and 4 lost of 5. Glicko ratings: Soles de Mexicali 1969, El Calor de Cancun 1282, a gap of 687 points.

Our model and the market consensus broadly agree on this match. Model confidence in the favourite is high. That is a 1-point gap to the market. For reliability the safer lean is a protected market on Soles de Mexicali (double chance, say) rather than the outright win alone. Key markers: an edge of 687 Glicko rating points, the model's 82% for Soles de Mexicali. Below on this page: team form, head-to-head history, bookmaker odds and the full PropickAI AI breakdown. This is a probability read from our model plus the market line, not a guaranteed outcome.

🎯 PropickAI prediction
High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Soles de Mexicali — 82%

1 · Soles de Mexicali ✓ Pick81.8%
market 83%
2 · El Calor de Cancun18.2%
market 17%

Model estimate: win Soles de Mexicali 81.8%, win El Calor de Cancun 18.2%. Model favourite — Soles de Mexicali.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

🎯 Safe pick banker

Match winner — Soles de Mexicali

Model confidence 83% ~91% on our history

How often this pick wins on our settled history — not a profit forecast.

How we calculated thisModel, consensus and market breakdown

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Soles de Mexicali - El Calor de Cancun August 30, 2026

Basketball math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite market consensus: Soles de Mexicali. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (market consensus): 1 1.12 / 2 5.50

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 7.9% 2 books
1 ✓ Pick 83.1%
2 16.9%

Odds source: consensus of 2 books (Baltbet, Betcity). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

%

Market consensus

Forecast by market

Match result
Soles de Mexicali
83%
1.12
El Calor de Cancun
17%
5.50
Total
Over 159.5
51%
1.82
Under 159.5
49%
1.90

Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.

Standing in the tournament

League table

Soles de Mexicali
#125 ptsGP 1411-3
El Calor de Cancun
#618 ptsGP 144-10

Team positions in the current tournament per official statistics — for reference.

Head-to-head and form stats

Head-to-head and form

Head-to-head

3Wins1
78.0Points on average72.5

Head-to-head matches: 4 · average total 150.5 (points)

Team form

Soles de Mexicali
9-1WWWWWWWWWL
points for 84.9points against 72.5
El Calor de Cancun
3-7WLLLWWLLLL
points for 79.2points against 85.2

Head-to-head and recent form per sports statistics — for reference.

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Match center
Start 30.08.2026 02:00 UTC
Market 1 83.1% @ 1.12 / 2 16.9% @ 5.50
Form 6 matches
🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Soles de Mexicali 82%
💹 Market Soles de Mexicali 83%
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Match center

Soles de Mexicali - El Calor de Cancun

V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov.

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 3 head-to-head matches
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Market and Glicko

Basketball math model. The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Soles de Mexicali 83.1% 81.8% market and model agree
El Calor de Cancun 16.9% 18.2%

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Basketball math model
P1 / P2 81.8% / 18.2% probabilities
Rating 1,969 / 1,282 Soles de Mexicali / El Calor de Cancun
RD 164 / 124 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,642-2,297 / 1,034-1,530 strength interval

The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 5.50 market consensus · no value · model 18.2%
1 1.12 market consensus · no value · model 81.8%
Total
Over 159.5 1.82 market consensus · line only
Under 159.5 1.90 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Baltbet Betcity
1.77 56.5% 1.80 55.6%
1.96 51.0% 1.90 52.6%

Total

Outcome Baltbet Betcity
Over 159.5 1.82 55.0% 1.81 55.3%
Under 159.5 1.90 52.6% 1.89 52.9%

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Baltbet Betcity
1.12 89.3% 1.11 90.1%
5.50 18.2% 5.50 18.2%
Match center

Form & head-to-head

H2H 3-0-1
2025-07-30 · Soles de Mekhikali 86:65 El Kalor de Kankun
2025-07-29 · Soles de Mekhikali 87:89 El Kalor de Kankun
2024-09-07 · Soles de Mekhikali 68:66 El Kalor de Kankun
2024-09-06 · Soles de Mekhikali 71:70 El Kalor de Kankun
Source: ruscore
Soles de Mexicali
W W W W W
2026-08-22 LNBP 2026
Soles de Mexicali Soles de Mexicali 78:71 Mineros de Zacatecas
2026-08-21 LNBP 2026
Soles de Mexicali Soles de Mexicali 84:68 Mineros de Zacatecas
2026-08-13 LNBP 2026
Soles de Mexicali Soles de Mexicali 87:80 Abejas de Leon
2026-08-12 LNBP 2026
Soles de Mexicali Soles de Mexicali 71:68 Abejas de Leon
2026-08-01 LNBP 2026
Soles de Mexicali Soles de Mexicali 71:57 Gambusinos De Fresnillo
5 Wins
0 Losses
78.2 Scored
68.8 Conceded
100% Win percentage
El Calor de Cancun
L L W W L
2026-08-21 LNBP 2026
Freseros de Irapuato 80:76 El Calor de Cancun El Calor de Cancun
2026-08-20 LNBP 2026
Freseros de Irapuato 93:89 El Calor de Cancun El Calor de Cancun
2026-08-17 LNBP 2026
Correcaminos 99:108 El Calor de Cancun El Calor de Cancun
2026-08-16 LNBP 2026
Correcaminos 83:90 El Calor de Cancun El Calor de Cancun
2026-08-07 LNBP 2026
Santos de San Luis 82:75 El Calor de Cancun El Calor de Cancun
2 Wins
3 Losses
87.6 Scored
87.4 Conceded
40% Win percentage
Match center

Full head-to-head history: Soles de Mexicali - El Calor de Cancun

Soles de Mexicali
3 matches total
El Calor de Cancun
Soles de Mexicali: 2 (66.7%)
El Calor de Cancun: 1 (33.3%)
Biggest win Soles de Mexicali 65:86 (2025-07-30) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 176 points (89:87, 2025-07-29) most points in a game

Match history

2025-07-30 LNBP 2026
El Calor de Cancun 65:86 Soles de Mexicali
2025-07-29 LNBP 2026
El Calor de Cancun 89:87 Soles de Mexicali
2024-09-07 LNBP 2026
Soles de Mexicali 68:66 El Calor de Cancun

More predictions

Soles de Mexicali – El Calor de Cancun 31.08 Panteras de Aguascalientes – Correcaminos de la UAT 29.08 Fuerza Regia – Abejas de Leon 29.08 Dorados – Mineros de Zacatecas 30.08 Diablos Rojos – Santos 30.08 Freseros – Astros Jalisco 30.08

Frequently asked questions

What does PropickAI predict for Soles de Mexicali vs El Calor de Cancun?

The consensus of 7 AI models and the Glicko-2 rating leans to Soles de Mexicali. Full probabilities and bookmaker odds are shown on this page.

What are the bookmaker odds for Soles de Mexicali vs El Calor de Cancun?

Live odds for Soles de Mexicali vs El Calor de Cancun from multiple bookmakers are listed on this page and refresh as the market moves.

When does Soles de Mexicali vs El Calor de Cancun start?

August 30, 2026.