LNBP
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)
1 Soles de Mexicali — 78%
Pure model vs market (1 · Soles de Mexicali): model 49% · market 80% Δ −31 pp model estimates below the market
Model estimate: win Soles de Mexicali 77.5%, win Gambusinos de Fresnillo 22.5%. Model favourite — Soles de Mexicali.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
For reference
Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
For reference
↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.
Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1
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V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov.
Basketball math model. The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Best value: no value found
The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity | Fonbet |
|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | 1.80 55.6% | |
| 1.91 52.4% | 1.90 52.6% | 1.90 52.6% | |
| — | — | 2.00 50.0% | |
| — | — | 2.12 47.2% | |
| — | — | 1.72 58.1% | |
| 1.82 55.0% | 1.81 55.3% | — | |
| — | — | 1.90 52.6% | |
| — | — | 1.80 55.6% | |
| — | — | 1.72 58.1% | |
| — | — | 1.64 61.0% | |
| — | — | 2.00 50.0% |
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity | Fonbet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 167.5 | — | — | 1.70 58.8% |
| Over 168.5 | — | — | 1.75 57.1% |
| Over 169.5 | 1.82 55.0% | 1.81 55.3% | 1.82 55.0% |
| Over 170.5 | — | — | 1.88 53.2% |
| Over 171.5 | — | — | 1.96 51.0% |
| Under 167.5 | — | — | 2.03 49.3% |
| Under 168.5 | — | — | 1.96 51.0% |
| Under 169.5 | 1.90 52.6% | 1.89 52.9% | 1.88 53.2% |
| Under 170.5 | — | — | 1.82 55.0% |
| Under 171.5 | — | — | 1.75 57.1% |
| Outcome | Baltbet | Betcity | Fonbet | Leon |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.18 84.8% | 1.17 85.5% | 1.15 87.0% | 1.15 87.0% | |
| 4.40 22.7% | 4.40 22.7% | 4.70 21.3% | 4.71 21.2% |
Soles de Mexicali
Gambusinos de Fresnillo
Full head-to-head historySoles de Mexicali - Gambusinos de Fresnillo
The Soles de Mexicali - Gambusinos de Fresnillo breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
