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Mexico. LNBP
Mexico. LNBP
30.07.2026 23:15 UTC Match prediction
30.07.2026 23:15 UTC
Finished

Mexico. LNBP

El Calor de Cancun - Abejas de Leon

Basketball
E
El Calor de Cancun
80 : 76
Finished
A
Abejas de Leon
🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 El Calor de Cancun — 54%

Pure model vs market (1 · El Calor de Cancun): model 40% · market 56% Δ −16 pp model estimates below the market

1 · El Calor de Cancun53.8%
2 · Abejas de Leon46.2%

Model estimate: win El Calor de Cancun 53.8%, win Abejas de Leon 46.2%. Model favourite — El Calor de Cancun.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

2Abejas de Leon (odds2.45) Score 79:81 confidence 60% ✗ outcome missed
  • • El Calor de Cancun: forma PPVPP (1-4)
  • • Abekhas: forma VV (2-0)
  • • Model backs Abekhas: probability 60% vs 41% on the line (odds 2.45)
  • • edge over the line +19 pp — value pick.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction El Calor de Cancun - Abejas de Leon July 30, 2026

Basketball math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like El Calor de Cancun.

Line favourite market consensus: El Calor de Cancun. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (market consensus): 1 1.69 / 2 2.14
  • Glicko: El Calor de Cancun 53.8% / Abejas de Leon 46.2%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 5.9%
1 55.9%
2 44.1%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 30.07.2026 23:15 UTC
Market 1 55.9% @ 1.69 / 2 44.1% @ 2.14
Form 5 matches
Match center

El Calor de Cancun - Abejas de Leon

V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov.

Form 2/2 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Flashscore match data source checked
Odds match data source checked
Line depth match data source checked
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line Overview
More needed
H2H Championat, Flashscore
Tournament Championat, Flashscore
Lineup / squad Championat, Injuries
Movement Line history
Post-match / PropickAI database
Score 80:76
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 53.8% fact: home hit / ROI 69.0% / Brier 0.427 / LogLoss 0.620
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 51.5% fact: home hit / ROI 69.0% / Brier 0.470 / LogLoss 0.663
Market and Glicko

Basketball math model. The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
El Calor de Cancun 54.8% 53.8% market and model agree
Abejas de Leon 45.2% 46.2%
1X2: 3 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Basketball math model
P1 / P2 53.8% / 46.2% probabilities
Rating 1,381 / 1,809 El Calor de Cancun / Abejas de Leon
RD 214 / 277 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 953-1,810 / 1,255-2,363 strength interval
HFA: 65 HFA mu: 0.374 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: no value found

The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.08 market consensus · no value · model 46.2%
1 1.67 market consensus · no value · model 53.8%
Total
Over 165.5 1.85 market consensus · line only
Over 166.5 1.81 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Leon
1.90 52.6% 1.90 52.6% —
1.90 52.6% 1.90 52.6% 1.83 54.6%
1.90 52.6% 1.90 52.6% 1.91 52.4%
— 1.85 54.1% —
1.80 55.6% 1.80 55.6% —
1.80 55.6% 1.80 55.6% 1.87 53.5%
1.80 55.6% 1.80 55.6% 1.80 55.6%
— 1.85 54.1% —

Total

Outcome Baltbet Betcity
Over 165.5 1.85 54.1% 1.85 54.1%
Over 166.5 1.81 55.3% 1.81 55.3%
Over 167.5 1.83 54.6% 1.83 54.6%
Over 169.5 1.82 55.0% 1.82 55.0%
Over 170.5 1.90 52.6% —
Over 172.5 1.90 52.6% —
Over 174.5 1.90 52.6% —
Under 165.5 1.85 54.1% —
Under 166.5 1.89 52.9% —
Under 167.5 1.87 53.5% —
Under 169.5 1.88 53.2% —
Under 170.5 1.80 55.6% —
Under 172.5 1.80 55.6% —
Under 174.5 1.80 55.6% —

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Leon
1.69 59.2% 1.69 59.2% 1.63 61.4%
2.05 48.8% 2.04 49.0% 2.14 46.7%
Match center
El Calor de Cancun
L L
25.07 00:00 UTC Mexico: LNBP
El Calor de Cancun 63:80 Lobos Plateados
24.07 00:00 UTC Mexico: LNBP
El Calor de Cancun 93:96 Lobos Plateados
0 Wins
2 Losses
78.0 Scored
88.0 Conceded
0% Win percentage
Abejas de Leon
W W
25.07 00:00 UTC Mexico: LNBP
Abejas de Leon 101:89 Korrekaminos
24.07 00:00 UTC Mexico: LNBP
Abejas de Leon 95:88 Korrekaminos
2 Wins
0 Losses
98.0 Scored
88.5 Conceded
100% Win percentage