Who is the favourite in Freseros vs Astros Jalisco?

By the PropickAI model, Astros Jalisco is favoured — about 71% win probability.

What does PropickAI predict for Freseros vs Astros Jalisco?

The consensus of 7 AI models and the Glicko-2 rating leans to Astros Jalisco. Full probabilities and bookmaker odds are shown on this page.

What are the bookmaker odds for Freseros vs Astros Jalisco?

Live odds for Freseros vs Astros Jalisco from multiple bookmakers are listed on this page and refresh as the market moves.

AI verdict

AI pick Astros Jalisco win probability ~71% confidence High best odds 1.37

Model consensus and the Glicko-2 rating lean to Astros Jalisco. Full breakdown below.

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Mexico. LNBP

30.08.2026 02:00 UTC Match prediction

✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form ✓H2H ✓Prediction

30.08.2026 02:00 UTC

Finished

Mexico. LNBP

Freseros vs Astros Jalisco — Basketball prediction

Basketball

Freseros

117 : 129

Finished

Astros Jalisco

Freseros host Astros Jalisco in basketball, in Mexico. LNBP, on 30 August 2026. PropickAI's Glicko-2 model makes Astros Jalisco the favourite, with a win probability of about 71%. The bookmaker consensus (5 books) implies about 72% for the same outcome.

Recent form reads: Freseros have 3 won and 2 lost of their last 5; Astros Jalisco have 3 won and 2 lost of 5. Astros Jalisco come in having won their last matches. Glicko ratings: Freseros 1326, Astros Jalisco 1912, a gap of 587 points.

Our model and the market consensus broadly agree on this match. Model confidence in the favourite is moderate. That is a 1-point gap to the market. For reliability the safer lean is a protected market on Astros Jalisco (double chance, say) rather than the outright win alone. Key markers: an edge of 587 Glicko rating points, the model's 71% for Astros Jalisco. Below on this page: team form, head-to-head history, bookmaker odds and the full PropickAI AI breakdown. This is a probability read from our model plus the market line, not a guaranteed outcome.

🎯 PropickAI prediction

High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

2 Astros Jalisco — 71%

1 · Freseros28.6%

market 28%

2 · Astros Jalisco ✓ Pick71.4%

market 72%

Model estimate: win Freseros 28.6%, win Astros Jalisco 71.4%. Model favourite — Astros Jalisco.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

🎯 Safe pick confident

Match winner — Astros Jalisco

Model confidence 72% ~81% on our history

How often this pick wins on our settled history — not a profit forecast.

How we calculated thisModel, consensus and market breakdown

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

2Astros Jalisco (odds1.50) Score 78:82 confidence 61% ✓ outcome correct

• Freseros: forma PVVVP (3-2)
• Astros: forma VVPPV (3-2)
• Model backs Astros: probability 61% vs 67% on the line (odds 1.50)
• no edge over the line (-6 pp) — informational only.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Freseros - Astros Jalisco August 30, 2026

Basketball math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Astros Jalisco.

Line favourite market consensus: Astros Jalisco. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.

Win odds (market consensus): 1 3.45 / 2 1.37
Glicko: Freseros 28.6% / Astros Jalisco 71.4%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

Winner bookmaker margin 8.4% 5 books · best price +7.0%

1 28.0%

2 ✓ Pick 72.1%

Odds source: consensus of 5 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Kambi BetMGM, Kambi Unibet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Market consensus

Forecast by market

Match result

Freseros

28%

3.45

Astros Jalisco

72%

1.37

Total

Over 173.5

50%

1.90

Under 173.5

50%

1.88

Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.

Standing in the tournament

League table

Freseros

#520 ptsGP 146-8

Astros Jalisco

#224 ptsGP 1410-4

Team positions in the current tournament per official statistics — for reference.

Head-to-head and form stats

Head-to-head and form

Head-to-head

4Wins2

89.0Points on average88.8

Head-to-head matches: 6 · average total 177.8 (points)

Team form

Freseros

5-5WWLLLWWWLL

points for 91.3points against 92.4

Astros Jalisco

7-3LWWWWLLWWW

points for 93.1points against 82.0

Head-to-head and recent form per sports statistics — for reference.

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Match center

Start 30.08.2026 02:00 UTC

Market 1 28.4% @ 3.45 / 2 71.6% @ 1.37

Form 6 matches

🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model Astros Jalisco 71%

💹 Market Astros Jalisco 72%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

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Match center

Freseros - Astros Jalisco

V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov.

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 3 head-to-head matches

Market 2 model / bookmakers

Post-match / PropickAI database

Score 117:129

Events 0

Statistics 0

Lineups 0

PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating

Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table away - 71.4% fact: away hit / ROI 37.0% / Brier 0.163 / LogLoss 0.336

Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table away - 58.6% fact: away hit / ROI 37.0% / Brier 0.343 / LogLoss 0.535

Market and Glicko

Basketball math model. The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Freseros 28.0% 28.6%

Astros Jalisco 72.1% 71.4% market and model agree

1X2: 5 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Basketball math model

P1 / P2 28.6% / 71.4% probabilities

Rating 1,326 / 1,912 Freseros / Astros Jalisco

RD 137 / 141 rating uncertainty

r +/- 2RD 1,052-1,600 / 1,630-2,195 strength interval

The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 1.29 market consensus · no value · model 71.4%

1 3.27 market consensus · no value · model 28.6%

Total

Over 170.5 1.80 market consensus · line only

Over 171.5 1.81 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome	Baltbet	Betcity
	1.90 52.6%	—
	1.81 55.3%	—
	1.87 53.5%	—
	1.87 53.5%	—
	1.82 55.0%	—
	1.80 55.6%	—
	1.91 52.4%	—
	1.80 55.6%	1.80 55.6%
	1.91 52.4%	1.90 52.6%
	1.83 54.6%	1.83 54.6%
	1.83 54.6%	1.87 53.5%
	1.88 53.2%	—
	1.90 52.6%	—
	1.81 55.3%	—

Total

Outcome	Baltbet	Betcity	Kambi BetMGM
Over 170.5	1.91 52.4%	1.90 52.6%	1.70 58.8%
Over 171.5	1.84 54.4%	1.83 54.6%	1.77 56.5%
Over 173.5	1.82 55.0%	1.87 53.5%	—
Over 174.5	1.90 52.6%	1.90 52.6%	—
Under 170.5	1.81 55.3%	1.80 55.6%	—
Under 171.5	1.88 53.2%	1.87 53.5%	—
Under 173.5	1.88 53.2%	1.83 54.6%	—
Under 174.5	1.80 55.6%	1.80 55.6%	—

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome	Baltbet	Betcity	Kambi BetMGM	Kambi Unibet	Leon
	3.30 30.3%	2.85 35.1%	3.45 29.0%	3.45 29.0%	3.29 30.4%
	1.28 78.1%	1.37 73.0%	1.26 79.4%	1.26 79.4%	1.29 77.5%

Match center

Form & head-to-head

H2H 0-0-7

2026-08-30 · Freseros de Irapuato 117:129 Astros de Khalisko

2025-08-09 · Freseros de Irapuato 82:102 Astros de Khalisko

2025-08-08 · Freseros de Irapuato 66:82 Astros de Khalisko

2024-09-29 · Freseros de Irapuato 86:100 Astros de Khalisko

2024-09-28 · Freseros de Irapuato 89:94 Astros de Khalisko

Source: ruscore

Freseros

W W L W W

2026-08-21 LNBP 2026

Freseros Freseros de Irapuato 80:76 El Calor de Cancun

2026-08-20 LNBP 2026

Freseros Freseros de Irapuato 93:89 El Calor de Cancun

2026-08-12 LNBP 2026

Freseros Freseros de Irapuato 83:86 Correcaminos

2026-08-11 LNBP 2026

Freseros Freseros de Irapuato 99:96 Correcaminos

2026-08-01 LNBP 2026

Freseros Freseros de Irapuato 92:89 Mineros de Zacatecas

4 Wins

1 Losses

89.4 Scored

87.2 Conceded

80% Win percentage

Astros Jalisco

W W L L W

2026-08-26 LNBP 2026

El Calor de Cancun 79:88 Astros Jalisco Astros Jalisco

2026-08-25 LNBP 2026

El Calor de Cancun 50:89 Astros Jalisco Astros Jalisco

2026-08-17 LNBP 2026

Mineros de Zacatecas 89:83 Astros Jalisco Astros Jalisco

2026-08-16 LNBP 2026

Mineros de Zacatecas 94:88 Astros Jalisco Astros Jalisco

2026-08-07 LNBP 2026

Abejas de Leon 83:95 Astros Jalisco Astros Jalisco

3 Wins

2 Losses

88.6 Scored

79.0 Conceded

60% Win percentage

Match center

Full head-to-head history: Freseros - Astros Jalisco

Freseros

3 matches total

Astros Jalisco

Freseros: 0 (0%)

Astros Jalisco: 3 (100%)

Biggest win Astros Jalisco 82:102 (2025-08-09) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 186 points (100:86, 2024-09-29) most points in a game

Match history

2025-08-09 LNBP 2026

Freseros de Irapuato 82:102 Astros Jalisco

2025-08-08 LNBP 2026

Freseros de Irapuato 66:82 Astros Jalisco

2024-09-29 LNBP 2026

Astros Jalisco 100:86 Freseros de Irapuato

Freseros vs Astros Jalisco — Basketball prediction

AI match prediction Freseros - Astros Jalisco August 30, 2026

Fair probability (no margin)

Forecast by market

League table

Head-to-head and form

Head-to-head

Team form

Unlock the full AI analysis

Freseros - Astros Jalisco

Match markets

Handicap

Total

Outcome (1X2)

Form & head-to-head

Match history

More predictions

Frequently asked questions