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National Teams. Women. Friendly
National Teams. Women. Friendly International
06.08.2026 14:30 UTC
✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form –H2H ✓Prediction
06.08.2026 14:30 UTC
Not started

National Teams. Women. Friendly

Finland (w) - Lithuania (w)

International Basketball
Finland (w)
Finland (w)
- : -
Not started
Lithuania (w)
Lithuania (w)

Finland (w) face Lithuania (w) on August 6, 2026 in the National Teams. Women. Friendly, International.

Recent form (W-D-L): Finland (w) 1-0-1, Lithuania (w) 2-0-0. Full analysis — form, H2H, odds and the PrognozAI AI prediction — follows on this page.

🎯 PropickAI prediction
High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

2 Lithuania (w) — 65%

Pure model vs market (2 · Lithuania (w)): model 63% · market 65% Δ −2 pp model estimate matches the market

1 · Finland (w)35.1%
market35%
2 · Lithuania (w) ✓ Pick64.9%
market65%

Model estimate: win Finland (w) 35.1%, win Lithuania (w) 64.9%. Model favourite — Lithuania (w).

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

2Lithuania (w) (odds1.44) Score 78:82 Over 143.5 (odds1.85) Handicap H1 +5.5 (odds1.85) confidence 65%
  • • Finland (zh): forma VP (1)
  • • Lithuania (zh): forma VV (2-0)
  • • Model backs Lithuania (zh): probability 65% vs 70% on the line (odds 1.44)
  • • no edge over the line (-5 pp) — informational only
  • • Total: Over 143.5: model expects a total of ~160 ochk
  • • at line 143.5 (odds 1.85)
  • • Handicap F1 +5.5: score forecast 78:82 (diff -4) covers the line (odds 1.85).

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Finland (w) - Lithuania (w) August 6, 2026

Basketball math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: Lithuania (w). We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 2.65 / 2 1.42

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 7.1% 2 books · best price +1.1%
1 34.9%
2 ✓ Pick 65.1%

Odds source: consensus of 2 books (Fonbet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner P1 2.65 → 2.65
Winner P2 1.42 → 1.42

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 06.08.2026 14:30 UTC
Market 1 34.9% @ 2.65 / 2 65.1% @ 1.42
Form 4 matches
Match center

Finland (w) - Lithuania (w)

V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov.

Form 2/2 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Flashscore match data source checked
Odds match data source checked
Bookiesapi match data source checked
Line depth match data source checked
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line Movement Overview
More needed
H2H Championat, Flashscore
Tournament Championat, Flashscore
Lineup / squad Championat, Injuries
Market and Glicko

Basketball math model. The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Finland (w) 34.9% 35.1%
Lithuania (w) 65.1% 64.9% market and model agree

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Basketball math model
P1 / P2 35.1% / 64.9% probabilities
Rating 1,347 / 1,965 Finland (w) / Lithuania (w)
RD 249 / 249 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 850-1,845 / 1,467-2,462 strength interval
HFA: 65 HFA mu: 0.374 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: no value found

The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.42 Fonbet · no value · model 64.9%
1 2.65 Fonbet · no value · model 35.1%
Total
Over 143.5 1.85 Fonbet · line only
Under 143.5 1.85 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Fonbet Leon
1.85 54.1% 1.85 54.1%
1.85 54.1% —
— 1.85 54.1%

Total

Outcome Fonbet Leon
Over 143.5 1.85 54.1% 1.85 54.1%
Under 143.5 1.85 54.1% 1.85 54.1%

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Fonbet Leon
2.65 37.7% 2.70 37.0%
1.42 70.4% 1.45 69.0%
Match center
Finland (w)
W L
31.07 13:00 UTC Sbornye. Women. Friendlies
Finland (w) 50:49 Sweden (zh)
30.07 13:00 UTC Sbornye. Women. Friendlies
Finland (w) 79:84 Poland (zh)
1 Wins
1 Losses
64.5 Scored
66.5 Conceded
50% Win percentage
Lithuania (w)
W W
31.07 16:00 UTC Sbornye. Women. Friendlies
Lithuania (w) 42:32 Poland (zh)
30.07 16:00 UTC Sbornye. Women. Friendlies
Lithuania (w) 63:58 Sweden (zh)
2 Wins
0 Losses
52.5 Scored
45.0 Conceded
100% Win percentage