PropickAI PropickAI
Sign in Sign up
Free access Sign in to unlock the full prediction Create a free account to see the full AI breakdown, probabilities, risks and history.
National Teams. Women. Friendly
National Teams. Women. Friendly International
31.07.2026 16:00 UTC
31.07.2026 16:00 UTC
Not started

National Teams. Women. Friendly

Lithuania (w) - Poland (w)

International Basketball
Lithuania (w)
Lithuania (w)
- : -
Not started
Poland (w)
Poland (w)
🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Lithuania (w) — 52%

Pure model vs market (1 · Lithuania (w)): model 52% · market 52% Δ 0 pp model estimate matches the market

1 · Lithuania (w)52.3%
2 · Poland (w)47.7%

Model estimate: win Lithuania (w) 52.3%, win Poland (w) 47.7%. Model favourite — Lithuania (w).

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Lithuania (w) (odds1.77) Score 81:79 Over 138.5 (odds1.85) Handicap H1 -1.5 (odds1.85) confidence 52%
  • • Lithuania (zh): forma V (1-0)
  • • Poland (zh): forma V (1-0)
  • • Model backs Lithuania (zh): probability 52% vs 56% on the line (odds 1.77)
  • • no edge over the line (-4 pp) — informational only
  • • Total: Over 138.5: model expects a total of ~160 ochk
  • • at line 138.5 (odds 1.85)
  • • Handicap F1 -1.5: score forecast 81:79 (diff +2) covers the line (odds 1.85).

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Lithuania (w) - Poland (w) July 31, 2026

Basketball math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: Lithuania (w). We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 1.77 / 2 1.94

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 8.0%
1 52.3%
2 47.7%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Pobeditel P1 1.77 → 1.77
Pobeditel P2 1.94 → 1.94

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

Buy the full AI analysis

Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1

Payment via YooKassa. After payment we will redirect you to a private link with the prediction.

Match center
Start 31.07.2026 16:00 UTC
Form 2 matches
Match center

Lithuania (w) - Poland (w)

V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov.

Form 1/1 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Flashscore match data source checked
Odds match data source checked
Bookiesapi match data source checked
Line depth match data source checked
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line Movement Overview
More needed
H2H Championat, Flashscore
Tournament Championat, Flashscore
Lineup / squad Championat, Injuries
Market and Glicko

Basketball math model. The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Lithuania (w) 52.3% 52.3% market and model agree
Poland (w) 47.7% 47.7%

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Basketball math model
P1 / P2 52.3% / 47.7% probabilities
Rating 1,756 / 1,756 Lithuania (w) / Poland (w)
RD 291 / 291 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,174-2,338 / 1,174-2,338 strength interval
HFA: 65 HFA mu: 0.374 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: no value found

The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.94 Fonbet · no value · model 47.7%
1 1.77 Fonbet · no value · model 52.3%
Total
Over 138.5 1.85 Fonbet · line only
Under 138.5 1.85 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Fonbet Leon
1.85 54.1% 1.85 54.1%
— 1.85 54.1%
1.85 54.1% —

Total

Outcome Fonbet Leon
Over 138.5 1.85 54.1% 1.85 54.1%
Under 138.5 1.85 54.1% 1.85 54.1%

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Fonbet Leon
1.77 56.5% 1.80 55.6%
1.94 51.6% 1.98 50.5%
Match center

Form & head-to-head

H2H 2-0-0
2025-02-06 · Lithuania (Zh) 72:69 Poland (Zh)
2023-11-12 · Lithuania (Zh) 75:73 Poland (Zh)
Source: ruscore
Lithuania (w)
W
30.07 16:00 UTC Sbornye. Women. Friendlies
Lithuania (w) 63:58 Sweden (zh)
1 Wins
0 Losses
63.0 Scored
58.0 Conceded
100% Win percentage
Poland (w)
W
30.07 13:00 UTC Sbornye. Women. Friendlies
Poland (w) 84:79 Finland (zh)
1 Wins
0 Losses
84.0 Scored
79.0 Conceded
100% Win percentage
Match center

Full head-to-head historyLithuania (w) - Poland (w)

Lithuania (w)
0 matches total
Poland (w)
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history