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NBL1 Women, South
NBL1 Women, South Australia
09.05.2026 07:00 UTC Match prediction
09.05.2026 07:00 UTC
Finished

NBL1 Women, South

Australia

Geelong United - Melbourne Tigers

Australia Basketball
Geelong United
Geelong United
71 : 68
Finished
Melbourne Tigers
Melbourne Tigers

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Geelong United - Melbourne Tigers May 9, 2026

Basketball math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: Melbourne Tigers. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 5.80 / 2 1.10

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 8.2%
1 15.9%
2 84.1%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 09.05.2026 07:00 UTC
Match center

Geelong United - Melbourne Tigers

Form 3/2 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.10 Fonbet · line only
1 5.80 Fonbet · line only
Handicap
2 0.5 1.83 market consensus · line only
1 0.5 1.78 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 132.5 1.83 market consensus · line only
Over 133.5 1.93 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome 1xBet
1.82 55.0%
1.87 53.5%
1.87 53.5%
1.84 54.5%
1.92 52.1%
1.87 53.5%
1.87 53.5%
1.90 52.5%
1.87 53.5%
1.85 54.1%
1.90 52.5%
1.84 54.4%
1.78 56.3%
1.97 50.8%
1.90 52.5%
1.90 52.5%
1.87 53.5%
1.87 53.5%

Total

Outcome 1xBet
Over 134.5 1.82 55.0%
Over 135.5 1.87 53.5%
Over 136.5 1.92 52.1%
Over 140.5 1.96 51.2%
Over 144.5 1.82 55.0%
Over 145.5 1.92 52.1%
Over 146.5 1.89 52.9%
Over 150.5 1.92 52.1%
Over 153.75 1.79 55.8%
Over 154.5 1.77 56.4%
Over 154.75 1.77 56.4%
Over 155.25 1.81 55.2%
Over 165.25 1.82 54.8%
Over 165.5 1.77 56.5%
Over 166.5 1.73 57.8%
Over 168.5 1.87 53.5%
Over 169.25 1.83 54.6%
Over 179.5 1.87 53.5%

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betfair Betsson Bwin CashPoint CloudBet
6.25 16.0% 5.60 17.9% 6.50 15.4% 6.50 15.4% 4.50 22.2% 20.00 5.0% 17.00 5.9% 4.05 24.7% 15.68 6.4%
1.08 92.3% 1.10 90.9% 1.10 90.9% 1.10 90.9% 1.17 85.5% 1.10 90.9% 1.01 99.0% 5.70 17.5% 1.02 98.1%
Match center
Geelong United
L L L
03.05 02:00 UTC NBL1 Women, South
Geelong United 70:74 Keilor ThunderKeilor Thunder
02.05 07:00 UTC NBL1 Women, South
Geelong United 62:81 Sandringham Sabres
12.04 02:30 UTC NBL1 Women, South
Geelong United 82:87 Mount Gambier Pioneers
0 Wins
3 Losses
71.3 Scored
80.7 Conceded
0% Win percentage
Melbourne Tigers
W L
03.05 02:30 UTC NBL1 Women, South
Melbourne Tigers 86:81 Knox Raiders
12.04 03:00 UTC NBL1 Women, South
Melbourne Tigers 77:90 Ballarat Miners
1 Wins
1 Losses
81.5 Scored
85.5 Conceded
50% Win percentage