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New Zealand. NBL
New Zealand. NBL
05.07.2026 01:00 UTC Match prediction
05.07.2026 01:00 UTC
Finished

New Zealand. NBL

Nelson Dzhayents - Franklin Bulls

Basketball
Nelson Dzhayents
Nelson Dzhayents
88 : 85
Finished
Franklin Bulls
Franklin Bulls
Match signals

Two independent model estimates. Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

🔒 «Formula lock»

1Nelson Dzhayents — 68%

The formula agrees with the market favourite in the moderate-odds zone — historically the most profitable slice (basketball/football/hockey). NOT a profit guarantee.

💎 «Value»

2Franklin Bulls — odds 3.55 · edge +3.5% · 4 bookies

The model rates the probability higher than the price implies. Elevated risk/variance; the signal is not confirmed on a large sample.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Nelson Dzhayents - Franklin Bulls July 5, 2026

Basketball math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: Nelson Dzhayents. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 1.01 / 2 11.00

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 8.1%
1 91.6%
2 8.4%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Basketball stats

Head-to-head and team form

Head-to-head

3Wins3
50.0%Win %50.0%
59.7Points per game62.0
96.8Offensive rating105.4
100.6Defensive rating101.4
-2.3Point differential2.3
41.0Assists40.5
89.5Rebounds89.5
33.3%3-pointers, %30.2%

Team form

Nelson Dzhayents
Overall LLLLW Net -10.0
Home LLW Net -4.3
Away LLL Net -16.6
Franklin Bulls
Overall LWLWL Net -12.8
Home LWLWL Net -9.0
Away L Net -17.1

Team stats

Nelson Dzhayents Overall · Home/Away Franklin Bulls
26.7%H 37.5% · A 14.3%Win %33.3%H 37.5% · A 28.6%
-10.0H -4.3 · A -16.6Point differential-12.8H -9.0 · A -17.1
85.9H 88.4 · A 83.1Points per game89.7H 88.1 · A 91.4
90.9H 90.5 · A 91.4Conceded96.1H 92.6 · A 100.0
44.0%H 45.3% · A 42.6%FG, %44.6%H 41.9% · A 47.7%
40.0H 50.0 · A 28.61st half26.7H 37.5 · A 14.3
77.8H 76.2 · A 79.7Pace79.0H 77.5 · A 80.4
111.1H 113.0 · A 108.8Offensive rating114.9H 116.3 · A 114.0
117.5H 119.5 · A 115.1Defensive rating123.1H 124.6 · A 122.1

Team totals distribution

Over 70.5 - 100.5

Nelson Dzhayents Total (over) Franklin Bulls
85.9 Points per game 89.7
60.0%
O 84.5
73.3%
46.7%
O 85.5
73.3%
46.7%
O 86.5
66.7%
46.7%
O 87.5srednee
66.7%
46.7%
O 88.5
60.0%
46.7%
O 89.5
60.0%
46.7%
O 90.5
53.3%
46.7%
O 91.5
53.3%

Over 101.5 - 130.5

Nelson Dzhayents Total (over) Franklin Bulls
13.3%
O 101.5
20.0%
13.3%
O 102.5
20.0%
13.3%
O 103.5
0.0%
13.3%
O 104.5
0.0%
13.3%
O 105.5
0.0%
13.3%
O 106.5
0.0%
6.7%
O 107.5
0.0%
6.7%
O 108.5
0.0%

Points by period

1st half (Q1+Q2)

Points per game: Nelson Dzhayents 42.9 / Franklin Bulls 43.1

Nelson Dzhayents Total (over) Franklin Bulls
66.7%
O 41.5
60.0%
53.3%
O 42.5srednee
60.0%
53.3%
O 43.5
53.3%
53.3%
O 44.5
53.3%
2nd half (Q3+Q4)

Points per game: Nelson Dzhayents 42.1 / Franklin Bulls 46.1

Nelson Dzhayents Total (over) Franklin Bulls
66.7%
O 42.5
73.3%
60.0%
O 43.5
73.3%
40.0%
O 44.5srednee
66.7%
40.0%
O 45.5
53.3%

Form and head-to-head • NBL

Team stats

Nelson Dzhayents
LLLLLWLLWL
W 2 • D 0 • L 8 (10)
Goals average:81.4 : 89.5
10 place, 8 pts
Franklin Bulls
WLLWLWLLLL
W 3 • D 0 • L 7 (10)
Goals average:86.8 : 95.4
9 place, 10 pts
Head-to-head: 14 — Nelson Dzhayents 5, draws 1, Franklin Bulls 8 (goals 1098:1097)
  • Franklin Bulls — Nelson Giants2026-05-08 97:73
  • Franklin Bulls — Nelson Giants2025-05-18 80:91
  • Nelson Giants — Franklin Bulls2025-03-28 83:94
  • Franklin Bulls — Nelson Giants2024-05-26 95:105
  • Nelson Giants — Franklin Bulls2024-03-31 85:86

Form, head-to-head and league position: 365scores. For reference.

Totals and pace

Team scoring

Nelson Dzhayents
159.2 points/match (over 4)
  • Scores: 75
  • Concedes: 84.2
Franklin Bulls
180.6 points/match (over 5)
  • Scores: 86.8
  • Concedes: 93.8
Total line: 178.5 · projection from form: 169.9 · Over in 67% of recent games

Average scoring and pace — from matches played in our database. For reference, not a prediction.

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Match center
Start 05.07.2026 01:00 UTC
Match center

Nelson Dzhayents - Franklin Bulls

Form 4/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.41 market consensus · line only
1 1.01 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 156.5 1.43 Fonbet · line only
Over 157.5 1.57 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Открыть на Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Baltbet Betcity
1.79 55.9% 1.80 55.6%
1.80 55.6% 1.80 55.6%
1.89 52.9% 1.90 52.6%
1.90 52.6% —
1.88 53.2% —
1.89 52.9% 1.90 52.6%
1.90 52.6% 1.90 52.6%
1.79 55.9% 1.80 55.6%
1.81 55.3% 1.81 55.3%
1.80 55.6% 1.81 55.3%

Total

Outcome Baltbet Betcity
Over 178.5 1.85 54.1% 1.86 53.8%
Over 179.5 1.89 52.9% 1.90 52.6%
Over 182.5 1.84 54.4% 1.85 54.1%
Over 183.5 1.84 54.4% 1.84 54.4%
Over 185.5 1.84 54.4% 1.84 54.4%
Over 186.5 1.82 55.0% 1.82 55.0%
Under 178.5 1.83 54.6% —
Under 179.5 1.79 55.9% —
Under 182.5 1.84 54.4% —
Under 183.5 1.86 53.8% —
Under 185.5 1.86 53.8% —
Under 186.5 1.88 53.2% —

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet Leon
1.28 78.1% 1.28 78.1% 1.01 99.0% 1.27 78.7%
3.30 30.3% 3.30 30.3% 11.00 9.1% 3.64 27.5%
Match center
Nelson Dzhayents
L L W L
12.06 23:30 UTC New Zealand: NBL
Nelson Dzhayents 85:95 Sautlend SharksSautlend Sharks
06.06 02:00 UTC New Zealand: NBL
Nelson Dzhayents 58:69 Tauranga Whai
04.06 05:00 UTC New Zealand: NBL
Nelson Dzhayents 94:85 Bey Khoks
24.05 01:00 UTC New Zealand: NBL
Nelson Dzhayents 63:88 Otago NaggetsOtago Naggets
1 Wins
3 Losses
75.0 Scored
84.3 Conceded
25% Win percentage
Franklin Bulls
L L W L W
13.06 02:30 UTC New Zealand: NBL
Franklin Bulls 95:101 Bey Khoks
07.06 04:00 UTC New Zealand: NBL
Franklin Bulls 75:86 Sautlend SharksSautlend Sharks
05.06 05:30 UTC New Zealand: NBL
Franklin Bulls 94:93 Otago NaggetsOtago Naggets
31.05 01:00 UTC New Zealand: NBL
Franklin Bulls 72:107 Auckland TuataraAuckland Tuatara
23.05 02:00 UTC New Zealand: NBL
Franklin Bulls 98:82 Bey Khoks
2 Wins
3 Losses
86.8 Scored
93.8 Conceded
40% Win percentage