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New Zealand. NBL
New Zealand. NBL
04.07.2026 05:30 UTC Match prediction
04.07.2026 05:30 UTC
Finished

New Zealand. NBL

Otago Nuggets - Wellington Saints

Basketball
Otago Nuggets
Otago Nuggets
90 : 91
Finished
Wellington Saints
Wellington Saints
Match signals

Two independent model estimates. Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

🔒 «Formula lock»

2Wellington Saints — 67%

The formula agrees with the market favourite in the moderate-odds zone — historically the most profitable slice (basketball/football/hockey). NOT a profit guarantee.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Otago Nuggets - Wellington Saints July 4, 2026

Basketball math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: Otago Nuggets. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 1.05 / 2 6.40

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 10.9%
1 85.9%
2 14.1%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Basketball stats

Head-to-head and team form

Head-to-head

3Wins3
50.0%Win %50.0%
61.3Points per game64.5
87.4Offensive rating100.0
91.9Defensive rating95.1
-3.2Point differential3.2
31.8Assists37.8
70.5Rebounds82.0
35.0%3-pointers, %26.4%

Team form

Otago Nuggets
Overall WWLWW Net -2.3
Home W Net -11.3
Away WWLWL Net +8.0
Wellington Saints
Overall WWWLL Net +19.9
Home WWW Net +40.0
Away WLL Net -0.3

Team stats

Otago Nuggets Overall · Home/Away Wellington Saints
46.7%H 50.0% · A 42.9%Win %71.4%H 100.0% · A 42.9%
-2.3H -11.3 · A 8.0Point differential19.9H 40.0 · A -0.3
86.3H 85.0 · A 87.7Points per game99.1H 108.3 · A 89.9
87.4H 90.6 · A 83.7Conceded89.1H 88.3 · A 90.0
46.1%H 47.0% · A 45.0%FG, %49.7%H 51.3% · A 48.1%
46.7H 50.0 · A 42.91st half64.3H 71.4 · A 57.1
78.1H 77.9 · A 78.3Pace84.1H 86.4 · A 81.8
110.5H 111.4 · A 109.5Offensive rating117.2H 114.2 · A 120.5
111.9H 112.8 · A 111.0Defensive rating105.5H 102.7 · A 108.4

Team totals distribution

Over 70.5 - 100.5

Otago Nuggets Total (over) Wellington Saints
86.3 Points per game 99.1
53.3%
O 89.5
71.4%
40.0%
O 90.5
57.1%
33.3%
O 91.5
57.1%
26.7%
O 92.5srednee
57.1%
20.0%
O 93.5
57.1%
20.0%
O 94.5
57.1%
13.3%
O 95.5
50.0%
13.3%
O 96.5
42.9%

Over 101.5 - 130.5

Otago Nuggets Total (over) Wellington Saints
0.0%
O 109.5
28.6%
0.0%
O 110.5
28.6%
0.0%
O 111.5
14.3%
0.0%
O 112.5
14.3%
0.0%
O 113.5
14.3%
0.0%
O 114.5
14.3%
0.0%
O 115.5
14.3%
0.0%
O 116.5
14.3%

Points by period

1st half (Q1+Q2)

Points per game: Otago Nuggets 43.7 / Wellington Saints 49.6

Otago Nuggets Total (over) Wellington Saints
66.7%
O 45.5
64.3%
46.7%
O 46.5srednee
57.1%
40.0%
O 47.5
42.9%
40.0%
O 48.5
42.9%
2nd half (Q3+Q4)

Points per game: Otago Nuggets 42.6 / Wellington Saints 48.2

Otago Nuggets Total (over) Wellington Saints
33.3%
O 43.5
78.6%
26.7%
O 44.5
71.4%
26.7%
O 45.5srednee
64.3%
26.7%
O 46.5
64.3%

Form and head-to-head • NBL

Team stats

Otago Nuggets
LLWLLLLWLW
W 3 • D 0 • L 7 (10)
Goals average:85 : 90.2
5 place, 14 pts
Wellington Saints
WWWWLWWWLW
W 8 • D 0 • L 2 (10)
Goals average:97.5 : 85
4 place, 18 pts
Head-to-head: 9 — Otago Nuggets 4, draws 0, Wellington Saints 5 (goals 828:842)
  • Wellington Saints — Otago Nuggets2026-06-07 96:90
  • Wellington Saints — Otago Nuggets2025-05-31 91:79
  • Otago Nuggets — Wellington Saints2025-04-12 99:111
  • Wellington Saints — Otago Nuggets2024-06-29 106:80
  • Otago Nuggets — Wellington Saints2024-04-13 105:98

Form, head-to-head and league position: 365scores. For reference.

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Match center
Start 04.07.2026 05:30 UTC
Match center

Otago Nuggets - Wellington Saints

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 6.40 Fonbet · line only
1 1.05 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 170.5 1.52 Fonbet · line only
Over 171.5 1.58 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Открыть на Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Baltbet Betcity
1.85 54.1% 1.85 54.1%
1.80 55.6% 1.81 55.3%
1.90 52.6% 1.90 52.6%
1.85 54.1% —
1.88 53.2% —
1.85 54.1% 1.85 54.1%
1.88 53.2% 1.89 52.9%
1.80 55.6% 1.80 55.6%
1.85 54.1% 1.85 54.1%
1.79 55.9% 1.81 55.3%

Total

Outcome Baltbet Betcity
Over 182.5 1.89 52.9% 1.90 52.6%
Over 183.5 1.88 53.2% 1.88 53.2%
Over 185.5 1.88 53.2% 1.88 53.2%
Over 186.5 1.83 54.6% 1.84 54.4%
Over 187.5 1.80 55.6% —
Over 188.5 1.88 53.2% —
Over 189.5 1.85 54.1% —
Under 182.5 1.79 55.9% —
Under 183.5 1.82 55.0% —
Under 185.5 1.82 55.0% —
Under 186.5 1.85 54.1% —
Under 187.5 1.90 52.6% —
Under 188.5 1.82 55.0% —
Under 189.5 1.85 54.1% —

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet Leon
3.10 32.3% 3.10 32.3% 1.05 95.2% 3.31 30.2%
1.32 75.8% 1.31 76.3% 6.40 15.6% 1.32 75.8%
Match center
Otago Nuggets
L L L L W
13.06 05:30 UTC New Zealand: NBL
Otago Nuggets 58:93 Kenterberi RamsKenterberi Rams
07.06 01:00 UTC New Zealand: NBL
Otago Nuggets 90:96 Vellington SeyntsVellington Seynts
05.06 05:30 UTC New Zealand: NBL
Otago Nuggets 93:94 Frenklin BullzFrenklin Bullz
31.05 04:00 UTC New Zealand: NBL
Otago Nuggets 89:99 Sautlend SharksSautlend Sharks
24.05 01:00 UTC New Zealand: NBL
Otago Nuggets 88:63 Nelson DzhayentsNelson Dzhayents
1 Wins
4 Losses
83.6 Scored
89.0 Conceded
20% Win percentage
Wellington Saints
L W W W L
14.06 01:00 UTC New Zealand: NBL
Wellington Saints 88:96 Auckland TuataraAuckland Tuatara
07.06 01:00 UTC New Zealand: NBL
Wellington Saints 96:90 Otago NaggetsOtago Naggets
01.06 01:00 UTC New Zealand: NBL
Wellington Saints 105:84 Manavatu DzhetsManavatu Dzhets
25.05 05:00 UTC New Zealand: NBL
Wellington Saints 107:79 Bey Khoks
21.05 05:00 UTC New Zealand: NBL
Wellington Saints 90:104 Sautlend SharksSautlend Sharks
3 Wins
2 Losses
97.2 Scored
90.6 Conceded
60% Win percentage
Match center

Full head-to-head historyOtago Nuggets - Wellington Saints

Otago Nuggets
1 matches total
Wellington Saints
Otago Nuggets: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Wellington Saints: 1 (100%)
Biggest win Vellington Seynts 90:96 (07.06 01:00 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 186 goals (90:96, 07.06 01:00 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

07.06 01:00 UTC New Zealand: NBL
Otago Naggets
90:96
Vellington Seynts