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New Zealand. NBL
New Zealand. NBL International
30.07.2026 07:00 UTC
30.07.2026 07:00 UTC
Not started

New Zealand. NBL

Wellington Saints - Otago Nuggets

International Basketball
Wellington Saints
Wellington Saints
- : -
Not started
Otago Nuggets
Otago Nuggets
🎯 PropickAI prediction
High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Wellington Saints — 82%

Pure model vs market (1 · Wellington Saints): model 61% · market 85% Δ −24 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Wellington Saints ✓ Pick82.4%
market85%
2 · Otago Nuggets17.6%
market15%

Model estimate: win Wellington Saints 82.4%, win Otago Nuggets 17.6%. Model favourite — Wellington Saints.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Wellington Saints - Otago Nuggets July 30, 2026

Basketball math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: Wellington Saints. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 1.08 / 2 6.30

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 8.5%
1 ✓ Pick 85.4%
2 14.6%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Pobeditel P1 1.09 → 1.09
Pobeditel P2 6.00 → 6.00

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

Head-to-head and form stats

Head-to-head and form

Head-to-head

3Wins3
61.3Points on average64.5

Head-to-head matches: 6 · average total 125.8 (points)

Team form

Wellington Saints
4-1WWLWW
points for 86.3points against 87.4
Otago Nuggets
3-2WWWLL
points for 99.1points against 89.1

Head-to-head and recent form per sports statistics — for reference.

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Match center
Start 30.07.2026 07:00 UTC
Form 6 matches
H2H 2
Match center

Wellington Saints - Otago Nuggets

V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov i 2 ochnykh vstrech.

Form 3/4 recent games
H2H 2 head-to-head matches
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Flashscore match data source checked
Odds match data source checked
Bookiesapi match data source checked
Line depth match data source checked
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants H2H Line Movement Overview
More needed
Tournament Championat, Flashscore
Lineup / squad Championat, Injuries
Market and Glicko

Basketball math model. The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Wellington Saints 84.0% 82.4% market and model agree
Otago Nuggets 16.0% 17.6%

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Basketball math model
P1 / P2 82.4% / 17.6% probabilities
Rating 1,738 / 1,434 Wellington Saints / Otago Nuggets
RD 147 / 145 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,443-2,032 / 1,145-1,724 strength interval
HFA: 65 HFA mu: 0.374 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: no value found

The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 6.30 Fonbet · no value · model 17.6%
1 1.08 Fonbet · no value · model 82.4%
Total
Over 181.5 1.70 Fonbet · line only
Over 182.5 1.75 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
— — 1.67 59.9%
— — 1.67 59.9%
— — 1.67 59.9%
1.89 52.9% 1.90 52.6% 1.75 57.1%
— — 1.85 54.1%
— — 1.96 51.0%
1.79 55.9% 1.80 55.6% —
— — 2.07 48.3%
— — 2.07 48.3%
— — 2.07 48.3%
— — 1.96 51.0%
— — 1.85 54.1%
— — 1.75 57.1%
— — 1.67 59.9%
— — 1.64 61.0%

Total

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet Leon
Over 181.5 — — 1.70 58.8% —
Over 182.5 — — 1.75 57.1% —
Over 183.5 1.82 55.0% 1.83 54.6% 1.82 55.0% 1.85 54.1%
Over 184.5 — — 1.88 53.2% 1.88 53.2%
Over 185.5 — — 1.96 51.0% —
Under 181.5 — — 2.03 49.3% —
Under 182.5 — — 1.96 51.0% —
Under 183.5 1.86 53.8% 1.87 53.5% 1.88 53.2% 1.85 54.1%
Under 184.5 — — 1.82 55.0% 1.82 55.0%
Under 185.5 — — 1.75 57.1% —

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet Leon
1.10 90.9% 1.11 90.1% 1.08 92.6% 1.13 88.5%
5.50 18.2% 5.50 18.2% 6.30 15.9% 5.60 17.9%
Match center

Form & head-to-head

H2H 5-0-1
2026-07-04 · Vellington Seynts 91:90 Otago Naggets
2026-06-07 · Vellington Seynts 96:90 Otago Naggets
2025-05-31 · Vellington Seynts 91:79 Otago Naggets
2025-04-12 · Vellington Seynts 111:99 Otago Naggets
2024-06-29 · Vellington Seynts 106:80 Otago Naggets
Source: ruscore
Wellington Saints
W W W
23.07 07:00 UTC New Zealand. NBL
Wellington Saints 106:80 Bey Khoks
18.07 07:30 UTC New Zealand. NBL
Wellington Saints 107:95 Vay Tauranga
10.07 07:30 UTC New Zealand. NBL
Wellington Saints 109:92 Vay Tauranga
3 Wins
0 Losses
107.3 Scored
89.0 Conceded
100% Win percentage
Otago Nuggets
L W W W
22.07 07:00 UTC New Zealand. NBL
Otago Nuggets 66:107 Vay Tauranga
16.07 07:00 UTC New Zealand. NBL
Otago Nuggets 92:77 Bey Khoks
12.07 06:00 UTC New Zealand. NBL
Otago Nuggets 84:80 Oklend TuataraOklend Tuatara
10.07 04:00 UTC New Zealand. NBL
Otago Nuggets 92:88 Franklin BullzFranklin Bullz
3 Wins
1 Losses
83.5 Scored
88.0 Conceded
75% Win percentage
Match center

Full head-to-head historyWellington Saints - Otago Nuggets

Wellington Saints
2 matches total
Otago Nuggets
Wellington Saints: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Otago Nuggets: 2 (100%)
Biggest win Vellington Seynts 96:90 (07.06 01:00 UTC+0) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 186 goals (96:90, 07.06 01:00 UTC+0) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

04.07 05:30 UTC+0 New Zealand: NBL
Vellington Seynts
91:90
Otago Naggets
07.06 01:00 UTC+0 New Zealand: NBL
Vellington Seynts
96:90
Otago Naggets