•liniya na pik P1 1.46→1.42 (ukorotilas — dengi na pik)
•Model backs Auckland Tuatara: probability 63% vs 69% on the line (odds 1.45)
•no edge over the line (-6 pp) — informational only
•Total: Under 180.5: model expects a total of ~160 ochk
•at line 180.5 (odds 2.03)
•Handicap F2 +4.5: score forecast 82:78 (diff +4) covers the line (odds 1.90).
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
*
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Auckland Tuatara - Wellington Saints August 1, 2026
Basketball math model
The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
Line favourite Fonbet: Auckland Tuatara. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
Win odds (Fonbet): 1 1.42 / 2 2.65
%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner
bookmaker margin 8.2%
1 ✓ Pick65.1%
234.9%
Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
⇅
For reference
Line movement
How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Pobeditel P11.46↓ 1.42
Pobeditel P22.53↑ 2.65
↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.
⚔
Head-to-head and form stats
Head-to-head and form
Team form
Auckland Tuatara
9-1WLWWWWWWWW
points for 95.3points against 83.3
Wellington Saints
no data
Head-to-head and recent form per sports statistics — for reference.
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Match center
Start01.08.2026 03:00 UTC
Market1 65.1% @ 1.42 / 2 34.9% @ 2.65
Form6 matches
Match center
Auckland Tuatara - Wellington Saints
V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov.
Form5/1
recent games
H2H0
head-to-head matches
Market2
model / bookmakers
Flashscorematch data
source checked
Oddsmatch data
source checked
Bookiesapimatch data
source checked
Line depthmatch data
source checked
Present in data
MarketFormMatchParticipantsLineMovementOverview
More needed
H2HChampionat, Flashscore
TournamentChampionat, Flashscore
Lineup / squadChampionat, Injuries
Market and Glicko
Basketball math model.
The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.
OutcomeLineGlickoSignal
Auckland Tuatara65.1%63.4%market and model agree
Wellington Saints34.9%36.6%
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.
Betting snapshot
1X2
22.65
Fonbet · no value · model 36.6%
11.42
Fonbet · no value · model 63.4%
Total
Over 180.51.70
Fonbet · line only
Over 181.51.75
Fonbet · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
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