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New Zealand. NBL
New Zealand. NBL International
16.07.2026 07:00 UTC Match prediction
16.07.2026 07:00 UTC
Finished

New Zealand. NBL

Otago Nuggets - Bay Hawks

International Basketball
Otago Nuggets
Otago Nuggets
92 : 77
Finished
B
Bay Hawks
🎯 PropickAI prediction
High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Otago Nuggets — 81%

Pure model vs market (1 · Otago Nuggets): model 70% · market 92% Δ −22 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Otago Nuggets ✓ Прогноз81.5%
market92%
2 · Bay Hawks18.5%
market8%

Model estimate: win Otago Nuggets 81.5%, win Bay Hawks 18.5%. Model favourite — Otago Nuggets.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Otago Nuggets (odds1.15) confidence 73% ✓ outcome correct

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Otago Nuggets - Bay Hawks 16 июля 2026

Basketball math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Otago Nuggets.

Line favourite Fonbet: Otago Nuggets. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 1.01 / 2 11.00
  • Glicko: Otago Nuggets 81.5% / Bay Hawks 18.5%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 8.1%
1 ✓ Прогноз 91.6%
2 8.4%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Победитель П1 1.17 ↓ 1.01
Победитель П2 4.40 ↑ 11.00

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

Лидер исходов AI: П1

Main outcome П1
Agreement 1/1
Confidence 62.0%

Модели дают единый сигнал. Такие матчи мы помечаем как более сильные.

Head-to-head and form stats

Head-to-head and form

Team form

Otago Nuggets
3-2WWWLL
points for 99.1points against 89.1
Bay Hawks
3-7WWLLLLWLLL
points for 87.2points against 96.1

Head-to-head and recent form per sports statistics — for reference.

AI overview

AI predictions

AI analysis:5/7 ready · Still preparing:DeepSeek, ChatGPT

Google AI updated16.07.2026 04:28 UTC
1 82% ✓ favourite
2 18%
Score94:83 Total points: ТБ 177.5 Bet:Фора 1 (-9.5)
Claude updated16.07.2026 04:37 UTC
1 80% ✓ favourite
2 20%
Score89:79 Total points: ТМ 178.5 Bet:Ф1 (−6.5) — фора хозяев
Qwen updated16.07.2026 04:31 UTC
1 78% ✓ favourite
2 22%
Score92:78 Total points: ТМ 179.5 Bet:П1 с форой (-9.5)
Kimi updated16.07.2026 04:40 UTC
1 78% ✓ favourite
2 22%
Score94:82 Total points: ТБ 177.5 Bet:Наггетс -9.5
GLM 5.2 updated16.07.2026 04:42 UTC
1 60% ✓ favourite
2 40%
Score88:82 Total points: ТБ 178.5 Bet:Отаго Наггетс -5.5

AI consensus:1

AI 1 2 Score Total points Bet
Google AI 82% 18% 94:83 ТБ 177.5 Фора 1 (-9.5)
Claude 80% 20% 89:79 ТМ 178.5 Ф1 (−6.5) — фора хозяев
Qwen 78% 22% 92:78 ТМ 179.5 П1 с форой (-9.5)
Kimi 78% 22% 94:82 ТБ 177.5 Наггетс -9.5
GLM 5.2 60% 40% 88:82 ТБ 178.5 Отаго Наггетс -5.5

Buy the full AI analysis

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Match center
Start 16.07.2026 07:00 UTC
Form 6 matches
H2H 1
Match center

Otago Nuggets - Bay Hawks

В базе учтены недавние матчи обоих участников и 1 очных встреч.

Form 2/1 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Flashscore match data source checked
Odds match data source checked
Bookiesapi match data source checked
Line depth match data source checked
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants H2H Line Movement Overview
More needed
Tournament Championat, Flashscore
Lineup / squad Championat, Injuries
Post-match / PropickAI database
Score 92:77
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
Market and Glicko

Basketball math model. The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Otago Nuggets 82.4% 81.5% market and model agree
Bay Hawks 17.6% 18.5%
1X2: 4 Bookies

Glicko-2 - рейтинговая модель силы: сравнивает линию, историю и стабильность, но не дает гарантий.

Basketball math model
P1 / P2 81.5% / 18.5% probabilities
Rating 1,759 / 894 Otago Nuggets / Bay Hawks
RD 153 / 159 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,452-2,066 / 577-1,211 strength interval
HFA: 65 HFA mu: 0.374 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: value не найден

The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 5.54 market consensus · no value · model 18.5%
1 1.01 Fonbet · no value · model 81.5%
Total
Over 164.5 1.48 Fonbet · line only
Over 165.5 1.55 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Открыть на Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
П1 -10.5 1.79 55.9% 1.80 55.6% —
П1 -13.5 1.90 52.6% 1.81 55.3% —
П2 +10.5 1.89 52.9% 1.90 52.6% —
П2 +13.5 1.80 55.6% 1.89 52.9% —
П2 -1.5 — — 2.70 37.0%
П2 -10.5 — — 1.80 55.6%
П2 -11.5 — — 1.95 51.3%
П2 -12.5 — — 1.35 74.1%
П2 -13.5 — — 1.53 65.4%
П2 -14.5 — — 1.40 71.4%
П2 -15.5 — — 1.45 69.0%
П2 -16.5 — — 1.35 74.1%
П2 -2.5 — — 2.40 41.7%
П2 -3.5 — — 2.15 46.5%

Total

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
ТБ 164.5 — — 1.48 67.6%
ТБ 165.5 — — 1.55 64.5%
ТБ 166.5 — — 1.50 66.7%
ТБ 167.5 — — 1.57 63.7%
ТБ 168.5 — — 1.30 76.9%
ТБ 169.5 — — 1.42 70.4%
ТБ 170.5 — — 1.55 64.5%
ТБ 171.5 — — 1.55 64.5%
ТБ 172.5 — — 1.85 54.1%
ТБ 173.5 — — 1.95 51.3%
ТБ 177.5 1.85 54.1% 1.86 53.8% —
ТБ 178.5 — 1.84 54.4% —
ТБ 179.5 1.85 54.1% — —
ТМ 177.5 1.83 54.6% 1.84 54.4% —
ТМ 178.5 — 1.86 53.8% —
ТМ 179.5 1.85 54.1% — —

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet Leon
П1 1.12 89.3% 1.09 91.7% 1.01 99.0% 1.15 87.0%
П2 5.23 19.1% 6.10 16.4% 11.00 9.1% 5.30 18.9%
Match center
Otago Nuggets
W W
12.07 06:00 UTC New Zealand. NBL
Otago Nuggets 84:80 Oklend TuataraOklend Tuatara
10.07 04:00 UTC New Zealand. NBL
Otago Nuggets 92:88 Franklin BullzFranklin Bullz
2 Wins
0 Losses
88.0 Scored
84.0 Conceded
100% Win percentage
Bay Hawks
L
11.07 04:00 UTC New Zealand. NBL
Bay Hawks 88:97 Manavatu DzhetsManavatu Dzhets
0 Wins
1 Losses
88.0 Scored
97.0 Conceded
0% Win percentage
Match center

Full head-to-head historyOtago Nuggets - Bay Hawks

Otago Nuggets
1 matches total
Bay Hawks
Otago Nuggets: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Bay Hawks: 1 (100%)
Biggest win Отаго Наггетс 92:79 (16.07 05:00 UTC+0) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 171 goals (92:79, 16.07 05:00 UTC+0) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

16.07 05:00 UTC+0 НОВАЯ ЗЕЛАНДИЯ: НБЛ
Отаго Наггетс
92:79
Бэй Хокс