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Philippines: MPBL
Philippines: MPBL
06.07.2026 06:00 UTC Match prediction
06.07.2026 06:00 UTC
Finished

Philippines: MPBL

Basilan Steel - Marikina Shoemasters

Basketball
Basilan Steel
Basilan Steel
80 : 49
Finished
Marikina Shoemasters
Marikina Shoemasters

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Basilan Steel - Marikina Shoemasters July 6, 2026

Basketball math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: Basilan Steel. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 1.07 / 2 6.80

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 8.2%
1 86.4%
2 13.6%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Basketball stats

Head-to-head and team form

Head-to-head

1Wins0
100.0%Win %0.0%
70.0Points per game51.0
115.0Offensive rating73.6
83.8Defensive rating101.0
19.0Point differential-19.0
69.0Assists33.0
114.0Rebounds102.0
48.0%3-pointers, %41.0%

Team form

Basilan Steel
Overall LLWWL Net -8.3
Home WW Net +9.3
Away LLWL Net -18.8
Marikina Shoemasters
Overall WLLLL Net -18.6
Home WLL Net -28.4
Away LLL Net -6.0

Team stats

Basilan Steel Overall · Home/Away Marikina Shoemasters
43.8%H 66.7% · A 30.0%Win %31.3%H 33.3% · A 28.6%
-8.3H 9.3 · A -18.8Point differential-18.6H -28.4 · A -6.0
79.1H 79.7 · A 78.8Points per game69.9H 70.3 · A 69.3
83.3H 75.0 · A 88.2Conceded79.2H 84.6 · A 72.3
41.9%H 43.3% · A 41.1%FG, %37.6%H 35.4% · A 40.8%
37.5H 50.0 · A 30.01st half6.3H 0.0 · A 14.3
80.3H 81.3 · A 79.6Pace81.0H 78.9 · A 84.2
97.9H 96.8 · A 98.6Offensive rating85.9H 88.1 · A 82.9
103.0H 101.9 · A 103.7Defensive rating97.4H 99.8 · A 94.0

Team totals distribution

Over 70.5 - 100.5

Basilan Steel Total (over) Marikina Shoemasters
79.1 Points per game 69.9
81.3%
O 70.5
62.5%
81.3%
O 71.5
56.3%
81.3%
O 72.5
56.3%
75.0%
O 73.5
50.0%
68.8%
O 74.5среднее
43.8%
62.5%
O 75.5
37.5%
56.3%
O 76.5
31.3%
56.3%
O 77.5
31.3%

Points by period

1st half (Q1+Q2)

Points per game: Basilan Steel — / Marikina Shoemasters —

Basilan Steel Total (over) Marikina Shoemasters
31.3%
O 40.5
6.3%
25.0%
O 41.5
6.3%
25.0%
O 42.5
6.3%
25.0%
O 43.5
6.3%
2nd half (Q3+Q4)

Points per game: Basilan Steel 40.9 / Marikina Shoemasters 40.6

Basilan Steel Total (over) Marikina Shoemasters
56.3%
O 40.5среднее
43.8%
50.0%
O 41.5
43.8%
50.0%
O 42.5
31.3%
31.3%
O 43.5
31.3%

Clubs and venues

Team reference

Basilan Steel
  • Ламитан
Marikina Shoemasters
No data

Reference data on clubs and venues: Wikidata.

Rest and schedule

Team freshness

Basilan Steel
Normal schedule
  • Rest days: 3
  • Matches in 7 days: 1 (in 14: 1)
Marikina Shoemasters
Well rested
  • Rest days: 4
  • Matches in 7 days: 1 (in 14: 1)

Rest and schedule density — from matches played in our database. For reference.

Totals and pace

Team scoring

Basilan Steel
156 points/match (over 3)
  • Scores: 76.7
  • Concedes: 79.3
Marikina Shoemasters
162.7 points/match (over 7)
  • Scores: 72.7
  • Concedes: 90

Average scoring and pace — from matches played in our database. For reference, not a prediction.

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Match center
Start 06.07.2026 06:00 UTC
Match center

Basilan Steel - Marikina Shoemasters

Form 3/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 6.80 Fonbet · line only
1 1.07 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 162.5 1.85 Fonbet · line only
Over 166.5 1.90 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Открыть на Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Fonbet
1.87 53.5%
1.83 54.6%
1.77 56.5%
1.87 53.5%
1.83 54.6%
1.87 53.5%
1.93 51.8%
1.83 54.6%
1.83 54.6%
1.90 52.6%
1.83 54.6%
1.90 52.6%
1.90 52.6%
1.90 52.6%
1.87 53.5%
1.80 55.6%
1.83 54.6%
1.85 54.1%

Total

Outcome Fonbet
Over 162.5 1.85 54.1%
Over 166.5 1.90 52.6%
Over 168.5 1.90 52.6%
Over 172.5 1.85 54.1%
Over 177.5 1.83 54.6%
Over 179.5 1.87 53.5%
Over 180.5 1.83 54.6%
Over 182.5 1.87 53.5%
Over 185.5 1.80 55.6%
Over 186.5 1.83 54.6%
Over 192.5 1.87 53.5%
Over 196.5 1.90 52.6%
Over 200.5 1.90 52.6%
Over 204.5 1.76 56.8%
Over 206.5 1.93 51.8%
Under 162.5 1.85 54.1%
Under 166.5 1.80 55.6%
Under 168.5 1.80 55.6%

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Fonbet
1.07 93.5%
6.80 14.7%
Match center
Basilan Steel
L L W
02.07 08:00 UTC Philippines: MPBL
Basilan Steel 74:82 Zamboanga SikatZamboanga Sikat
11.06 10:00 UTC Philippines: MPBL
Basilan Steel 80:83 Quezon CityQuezon City
20.05 10:00 UTC Philippines: MPBL
Basilan Steel 76:73 Rizal Golden CoolersRizal Golden Coolers
1 Wins
2 Losses
76.7 Scored
79.3 Conceded
33% Win percentage
Marikina Shoemasters
W L L L L
01.07 10:00 UTC Philippines: MPBL
Marikina Shoemasters 88:83 Valenzuela City DarkhorseValenzuela City Darkhorse
08.06 10:00 UTC Philippines: MPBL
Marikina Shoemasters 73:103 Binan Tatak GelBinan Tatak Gel
01.06 08:00 UTC Philippines: MPBL
Marikina Shoemasters 76:92 MeycauayanMeycauayan
26.05 06:00 UTC Philippines: MPBL
Marikina Shoemasters 74:97 Rizal Golden CoolersRizal Golden Coolers
21.05 10:00 UTC Philippines: MPBL
Marikina Shoemasters 62:79 Batangas CityBatangas City
1 Wins
4 Losses
74.6 Scored
90.8 Conceded
20% Win percentage