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Philippines: MPBL
Philippines: MPBL
11.06.2026 08:00 UTC Match prediction
11.06.2026 08:00 UTC
Finished

Philippines: MPBL

Bataan Risers - Bacolod Masskara

Basketball
Bataan Risers
Bataan Risers
113 : 62
Finished
Bacolod Masskara
Bacolod Masskara

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Bataan Risers - Bacolod Masskara June 11, 2026

Basketball math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: Bataan Risers. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 1.01 / 2 11.00

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 8.1%
1 91.6%
2 8.4%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Basketball stats

Head-to-head and team form

Team form

Bataan Risers
Overall WLLLL Net +5.1
Home WLLL Net +12.3
Away LL Net -7.5
Bacolod Masskara
Overall WLLLW Net -9.3
Home WLW Net +6.0
Away LLL Net -18.0

Team stats

Bataan Risers Overall · Home/Away Bacolod Masskara
36.4%H 42.9% · A 25.0%Win %36.4%H 50.0% · A 28.6%
5.1H 12.3 · A -7.5Point differential-9.3H 6.0 · A -18.0
86.6H 91.4 · A 78.3Points per game81.5H 84.3 · A 79.9
84.1H 85.3 · A 82.0Conceded86.1H 81.3 · A 88.9
43.2%H 45.4% · A 39.3%FG, %39.3%H 41.8% · A 37.9%
54.6H 57.1 · A 50.01st half9.1H 0.0 · A 14.3
80.5H 80.9 · A 79.8Pace85.1H 82.3 · A 86.7
107.5H 107.0 · A 108.6Offensive rating95.5H 98.8 · A 93.8
104.4H 103.8 · A 105.4Defensive rating101.0H 104.5 · A 99.1

Team totals distribution

Over 70.5 - 100.5

Bataan Risers Total (over) Bacolod Masskara
86.6 Points per game 81.5
63.6%
O 80.5
54.5%
54.5%
O 81.5
54.5%
54.5%
O 82.5
54.5%
54.5%
O 83.5
36.4%
45.5%
O 84.5srednee
27.3%
45.5%
O 85.5
9.1%
45.5%
O 86.5
9.1%
45.5%
O 87.5
9.1%

Over 101.5 - 130.5

Bataan Risers Total (over) Bacolod Masskara
18.2%
O 101.5
9.1%
9.1%
O 102.5
0.0%
9.1%
O 103.5
0.0%
9.1%
O 104.5
0.0%
9.1%
O 105.5
0.0%
9.1%
O 106.5
0.0%
9.1%
O 107.5
0.0%
9.1%
O 108.5
0.0%

Points by period

1st half (Q1+Q2)

Points per game: Bataan Risers 41.7 / Bacolod Masskara —

Bataan Risers Total (over) Bacolod Masskara
45.5%
O 40.5
27.3%
45.5%
O 41.5srednee
27.3%
36.4%
O 42.5
18.2%
36.4%
O 43.5
18.2%
2nd half (Q3+Q4)

Points per game: Bataan Risers 44.1 / Bacolod Masskara 45.6

Bataan Risers Total (over) Bacolod Masskara
36.4%
O 43.5
36.4%
36.4%
O 44.5srednee
36.4%
36.4%
O 45.5
36.4%
36.4%
O 46.5
27.3%

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Match center
Start 11.06.2026 08:00 UTC
Match center

Bataan Risers - Bacolod Masskara

Array

Form 2/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Betting snapshot
1X2
1 1.01 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 165.5 1.83 Fonbet · line only
Over 166.5 1.80 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Fonbet
1.83 54.6%
1.80 55.6%
1.83 54.6%
1.90 52.6%
1.80 55.6%
1.87 53.5%
1.90 52.6%
1.87 53.5%
1.80 55.6%
1.90 52.6%
1.90 52.6%
1.90 52.6%
1.90 52.6%
1.90 52.6%
1.90 52.6%
1.87 53.5%
1.80 55.6%
1.80 55.6%

Total

Outcome Fonbet
Over 165.5 1.83 54.6%
Over 166.5 1.80 55.6%
Over 168.5 1.83 54.6%
Over 169.5 1.83 54.6%
Over 171.5 1.83 54.6%
Over 172.5 1.90 52.6%
Over 173.5 1.77 56.5%
Over 174.5 1.80 55.6%
Over 177.5 1.80 55.6%
Over 179.5 1.80 55.6%
Over 181.5 1.87 53.5%
Under 165.5 1.87 53.5%
Under 166.5 1.90 52.6%
Under 168.5 1.87 53.5%
Under 169.5 1.87 53.5%
Under 171.5 1.87 53.5%
Under 172.5 1.80 55.6%
Under 173.5 1.93 51.8%

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Fonbet
1.01 99.0%
11.00 9.1%
Match center
Bataan Risers
L L
26.05 10:00 UTC Philippines: MPBL
Bataan Risers 69:75 MeycauayanMeycauayan
21.05 06:00 UTC Philippines: MPBL
Bataan Risers 81:83 Mindoro TamarawsMindoro Tamaraws
0 Wins
2 Losses
75.0 Scored
79.0 Conceded
0% Win percentage
Bacolod Masskara
L L W L W
08.06 06:00 UTC Philippines: MPBL
Bacolod Masskara 84:96 Pasig CityPasig City
04.06 06:00 UTC Philippines: MPBL
Bacolod Masskara 72:107 Rizal Golden CoolersRizal Golden Coolers
01.06 10:00 UTC Philippines: MPBL
Bacolod Masskara 99:87 Negros HacienderosNegros Hacienderos
26.05 08:00 UTC Philippines: MPBL
Bacolod Masskara 78:111 Batangas CityBatangas City
21.05 10:25 UTC Philippines: MPBL
Bacolod Masskara 86:85 Paranaque PatriotsParanaque Patriots
2 Wins
3 Losses
83.8 Scored
97.2 Conceded
40% Win percentage