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Philippines. Governor's Cup. Quezon City
Philippines. Governor's Cup. Quezon City
21.07.2026 07:15 UTC Match prediction
21.07.2026 07:15 UTC
Finished

Philippines. Governor's Cup. Quezon City

Meralco Bolts - Blackwater Bossing

Basketball
Meralco Bolts
Meralco Bolts
116 : 114
Finished
Blackwater Bossing
Blackwater Bossing
🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Meralco Bolts — 53%

Pure model vs market (1 · Meralco Bolts): model 43% · market 50% Δ −7 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Meralco Bolts53.4%
2 · Blackwater Bossing46.6%

Model estimate: win Meralco Bolts 53.4%, win Blackwater Bossing 46.6%. Model favourite — Meralco Bolts.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

2Blackwater Bossing (odds1.93) Score 79:81 confidence 52% ✗ outcome missed
  • • Meralko Bolts: forma PPVP (1-3)
  • • Blekuoter Bossing: forma V (1-0)
  • • Model backs Blekuoter Bossing: probability 52% vs 52% on the line (odds 1.93)
  • • no edge over the line (-0 pp) — informational only.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Meralco Bolts - Blackwater Bossing July 21, 2026

Basketball math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Meralco Bolts.

Line favourite Fonbet: Meralco Bolts. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 1.85 / 2 1.85
  • Glicko: Meralco Bolts 53.4% / Blackwater Bossing 46.6%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 8.1%
1 50.0%
2 50.0%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner 1 1.50 ↑ 1.85
Winner 2 2.42 ↓ 1.85

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 1/1
Confidence 62.0%

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

AI overview

AI predictions

AI analysis:4/7 ready · Still preparing:DeepSeek, ChatGPT, Claude

Google AI updated21.07.2026 07:39 UTC
1 58% ✓ favourite
2 42%
Score105:101 Total points: Over 203.5 Bet:Total bolshe 203.5
Per AI data H2H: 108:93, 105:96
Qwen updated21.07.2026 07:42 UTC
1 58% ✓ favourite
2 42%
Score106:96 Total points: Over 205.5 Bet:Win Meralko Bolts with handicap (-5.5)
Kimi updated21.07.2026 07:46 UTC
1 58% ✓ favourite
2 42%
Score107:98 Total points: Over 215.5 Bet:1 (Meralko Bolts) with handicap -3.5
GLM 5.2 updated21.07.2026 07:48 UTC
1 55% ✓ favourite
2 45%
Score98:92 Total points: Over 210.5 Bet:Blekuoter +3.5
Per AI data Form:0-5 / 2-3 Injuries:Varnado out, Hester in

AI consensus:1

AI 1 2 Score Total points Bet
Google AI 58% 42% 105:101 Over 203.5 Total bolshe 203.5
Qwen 58% 42% 106:96 Over 205.5 Win Meralko Bolts with handicap (-5.5)
Kimi 58% 42% 107:98 Over 215.5
GLM 5.2 55% 45% 98:92 Over 210.5 Blekuoter +3.5

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Match center
Start 21.07.2026 07:15 UTC
Form 5 matches
🥊 Humans vs Machines
🤖 7 AI models Meralco Bolts 57%
📐 Math model Meralco Bolts 53%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Meralco Bolts - Blackwater Bossing

V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov.

Form 2/2 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Flashscore match data source checked
Odds match data source checked
Bookiesapi match data source checked
Line depth match data source checked
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line Movement Overview
More needed
H2H Championat, Flashscore
Tournament Championat, Flashscore
Lineup / squad Championat, Injuries
Post-match / PropickAI database
Score 116:114
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 53.4% fact: home hit / ROI 85.0% / Brier 0.435 / LogLoss 0.628
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 51.3% fact: home hit / ROI 85.0% / Brier 0.473 / LogLoss 0.667
Market and Glicko

Basketball math model. The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Meralco Bolts 54.2% 53.4% market and model agree
Blackwater Bossing 45.8% 46.6%
1X2: 3 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Basketball math model
P1 / P2 53.4% / 46.6% probabilities
Rating 1,428 / 1,733 Meralco Bolts / Blackwater Bossing
RD 212 / 271 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,003-1,853 / 1,192-2,275 strength interval
HFA: 65 HFA mu: 0.374 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: no value found

The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.85 Fonbet · no value · model 46.6%
1 1.85 Fonbet · no value · model 53.4%
Total
Over 195.5 1.55 Fonbet · line only
Over 196.5 1.53 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Betcity Fonbet
1.88 53.2% —
1.94 51.6% —
1.92 52.1% —
1.86 53.8% —
— 1.83 54.6%
— 1.85 54.1%
— 1.67 59.9%
— 1.75 57.1%
— 1.55 64.5%
— 1.50 66.7%
— 1.35 74.1%
— 1.28 78.1%
— 1.40 71.4%
— 1.33 75.2%
— 1.38 72.5%
— 1.90 52.6%
— 1.92 52.1%
— 1.87 53.5%

Total

Outcome Betcity Fonbet
Over 195.5 — 1.55 64.5%
Over 196.5 — 1.53 65.4%
Over 197.5 — 1.53 65.4%
Over 198.5 — 1.60 62.5%
Over 199.5 — 1.67 59.9%
Over 200.5 — 1.75 57.1%
Over 201.5 — 1.82 55.0%
Over 202.5 — 1.55 64.5%
Over 203.5 — 1.55 64.5%
Over 204.5 — 1.52 65.8%
Over 211.5 1.93 51.8% —
Over 212.5 1.93 51.8% —
Over 213.5 1.90 52.6% —
Over 215.5 1.88 53.2% —
Under 211.5 1.87 53.5% —
Under 212.5 1.87 53.5% —
Under 213.5 1.90 52.6% —
Under 215.5 1.92 52.1% —

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Betcity Fonbet Leon
1.72 58.1% 1.85 54.1% 1.71 58.5%
2.10 47.6% 1.85 54.1% 2.02 49.5%
Match center
Meralco Bolts
W L
18.07 09:30 UTC Philippines: PBA Governors' Cup
Meralco Bolts 122:114 Reyn-or-Shayn Peynt.
15.07 09:30 UTC Philippines: PBA Governors' Cup
Meralco Bolts 97:98 Feniks FuelmastersFeniks Fuelmasters
1 Wins
1 Losses
109.5 Scored
106.0 Conceded
50% Win percentage
Blackwater Bossing
W W
17.07 09:30 UTC Philippines: PBA Governors' Cup
Blackwater Bossing 89:81 Magnoliya KhotshotsMagnoliya Khotshots
11.07 07:15 UTC Philippines: PBA Governors' Cup
Blackwater Bossing 131:108 Reyn-or-Shayn Peynt.
2 Wins
0 Losses
110.0 Scored
94.5 Conceded
100% Win percentage