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Philippines. Governor's Cup. Manila
Philippines. Governor's Cup. Manila
31.07.2026 09:30 UTC
Not started

Philippines. Governor's Cup. Manila

Meralco Bolts - Ginebra San Miguel

Basketball
Meralco Bolts
Meralco Bolts
- : -
Not started
Ginebra San Miguel
Ginebra San Miguel
🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Ginebra San Miguel53%

1 · Meralco Bolts46.9%
2 · Ginebra San Miguel53.1%

Model estimate: win Meralco Bolts 46.9%, win Ginebra San Miguel 53.1%. Model favourite — Ginebra San Miguel.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

2Ginebra San Miguel (odds1.77) Score 79:81 Under 203.5 (odds1.85) Handicap H2 -1.5 (odds1.85) confidence 53%
  • Meralko Bolts: forma PVVPP (2-3)
  • Ginebra: forma PVPPV (2-3)
  • Model backs Ginebra: probability 53% vs 56% on the line (odds 1.77)
  • no edge over the line (-3 pp) — informational only
  • Total: Under 203.5: model expects a total of ~160 ochk
  • at line 203.5 (odds 1.85)
  • Handicap F2 -1.5: score forecast 79:81 (diff -2) covers the line (odds 1.85).

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Meralco Bolts - Ginebra San Miguel July 31, 2026

Basketball math model

The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.

Line favourite Fonbet: Ginebra San Miguel. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (Fonbet): 1 2.07 / 2 1.67

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 8.2%
1 44.7%
2 55.3%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Pobeditel P1 1.94 → 1.94
Pobeditel P2 1.77 → 1.77

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

Head-to-head and form stats

Head-to-head and form

Team form

Meralco Bolts

no data

Ginebra San Miguel
7-3WWLWWWLWLW
points for 103.6points against 101.1

Head-to-head and recent form per sports statistics — for reference.

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Match center
Start 31.07.2026 09:30 UTC
Form 6 matches
Match center

Meralco Bolts - Ginebra San Miguel

V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov.

Form 4/3 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Flashscore match data source checked
Odds match data source checked
Bookiesapi match data source checked
Line depth match data source checked
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line Movement Overview
More needed
H2H Championat, Flashscore
Tournament Championat, Flashscore
Lineup / squad Championat, Injuries
Market and Glicko

Basketball math model. The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Meralco Bolts 47.7% 46.9%
Ginebra San Miguel 52.3% 53.1% market and model agree

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Basketball math model
P1 / P2 46.9% / 53.1% probabilities
Rating 1,356 / 1,501 Meralco Bolts / Ginebra San Miguel
RD 188 / 137 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 981-1,731 / 1,226-1,775 strength interval
HFA: 65 HFA mu: 0.374 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: no value found

The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.67 Fonbet · no value · model 53.1%
1 2.07 Fonbet · no value · model 46.9%
Total
Over 203.5 1.85 Fonbet · line only
Over 204.5 1.85 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet Leon
1.90 52.6%
1.84 54.4% 1.85 54.1%
1.96 51.0% 1.85 54.1% 1.85 54.1%
1.85 54.1%
1.80 55.6%
1.85 54.1%
1.85 54.1%
1.85 54.1%
1.83 54.6%
1.84 54.4% 1.85 54.1%

Total

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
Over 203.5 1.85 54.1%
Over 204.5 1.85 54.1%
Over 206.5 1.82 55.0%
Over 207.5 1.82 55.0%
Over 208.5 1.81 55.3% 1.82 55.0%
Over 209.5 1.84 54.4% 1.90 52.6% 1.85 54.1%
Over 210.5 1.85 54.1%
Over 213.5 1.85 54.1%
Over 215.5 1.85 54.1%
Over 216.5 1.82 55.0%
Over 218.5 1.85 54.1%
Under 203.5 1.85 54.1%
Under 208.5 1.86 53.8%
Under 209.5 1.83 54.6% 1.90 52.6%

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet Leon
2.05 48.8% 2.45 40.8% 2.07 48.3% 2.18 45.9%
1.66 60.2% 1.55 64.5% 1.67 59.9% 1.61 62.1%
Match center
Meralco Bolts
L W W L
24.07 07:15 UTC Philippines: PBA Governors' Cup
Meralco Bolts 98:112 Magnoliya KhotshotsMagnoliya Khotshots
21.07 07:15 UTC Philippines: PBA Governors' Cup
Meralco Bolts 116:114 Blekuoter BossingBlekuoter Bossing
18.07 09:30 UTC Philippines: PBA Governors' Cup
Meralco Bolts 122:114 Reyn-or-Shayn Peynt.
15.07 09:30 UTC Philippines: PBA Governors' Cup
Meralco Bolts 97:98 Feniks FuelmastersFeniks Fuelmasters
2 Wins
2 Losses
108.3 Scored
109.5 Conceded
50% Win percentage
Ginebra San Miguel
L W L
26.07 09:30 UTC Philippines: PBA Governors' Cup
Ginebra San Miguel 99:110 Reyn-or-Shayn Peynt.
24.07 09:30 UTC Philippines: PBA Governors' Cup
Ginebra San Miguel 115:85 Blekuoter BossingBlekuoter Bossing
19.07 09:30 UTC Philippines: PBA Governors' Cup
Ginebra San Miguel 78:81 Feniks FuelmastersFeniks Fuelmasters
1 Wins
2 Losses
97.3 Scored
92.0 Conceded
33% Win percentage