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PUERTO-RIKO: BSN - Playoff
PUERTO-RIKO: BSN - Playoff
30.07.2026 22:00 UTC Match prediction
30.07.2026 22:00 UTC
Finished

PUERTO-RIKO: BSN - Playoff

Criollos de Caguas - Vaqueros de Bayamon

Basketball
Criollos de Caguas
Criollos de Caguas
74 : 78
Finished
Vaqueros de Bayamon
Vaqueros de Bayamon
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Criollos de Caguas — 57%

Pure model vs market (1 · Criollos de Caguas): model 49% · market 57% Δ −8 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Criollos de Caguas56.6%
2 · Vaqueros de Bayamon43.4%

Model estimate: win Criollos de Caguas 56.6%, win Vaqueros de Bayamon 43.4%. Model favourite — Criollos de Caguas.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

2Vaqueros de Bayamon (odds1.90) Score 79:81 confidence 51% ✓ outcome correct
  • • Criollos de Caguas: forma PPPVV (2-3)
  • • Vakeros de Bayamon: forma VVVVV (5-0)
  • • ochnye 0-3 (za 3)
  • • Model backs Vakeros de Bayamon: probability 51% vs 53% on the line (odds 1.90)
  • • no edge over the line (-1 pp) — informational only.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Criollos de Caguas - Vaqueros de Bayamon July 30, 2026

Basketball math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Criollos de Caguas.

Line favourite market consensus: Criollos de Caguas. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (market consensus): 1 1.63 / 2 2.15
  • Glicko: Criollos de Caguas 56.6% / Vaqueros de Bayamon 43.4%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 7.9%
1 56.9%
2 43.1%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 30.07.2026 22:00 UTC
Form 6 matches
H2H 3
Match center

Criollos de Caguas - Vaqueros de Bayamon

V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov i 3 ochnykh vstrech.

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 3 head-to-head matches
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Flashscore match data source checked
Odds match data source checked
Line depth match data source checked
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants H2H Line Overview
More needed
Tournament Championat, Flashscore
Lineup / squad Championat, Injuries
Movement Line history
Post-match / PropickAI database
Score 74:78
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 56.6% fact: away missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 0.641 / LogLoss 0.835
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 52.6% fact: away missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 0.554 / LogLoss 0.747
Market and Glicko

Basketball math model. The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Criollos de Caguas 57.2% 56.6% market and model agree
Vaqueros de Bayamon 42.8% 43.4%
1X2: 3 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Basketball math model
P1 / P2 56.6% / 43.4% probabilities
Rating 1,652 / 1,747 Criollos de Caguas / Vaqueros de Bayamon
RD 106 / 134 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,441-1,863 / 1,479-2,015 strength interval
HFA: 65 HFA mu: 0.374 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: no value found

The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.15 market consensus · no value · model 43.4%
1 1.62 market consensus · no value · model 56.6%
Total
Over 177.5 1.86 market consensus · line only
Over 178.5 1.85 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Leon
— 1.90 52.6% —
1.79 55.9% 1.80 55.6% 1.85 54.1%
— 1.80 55.6% —
1.89 52.9% 1.90 52.6% 1.85 54.1%

Total

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Leon
Over 177.5 1.87 53.5% 1.88 53.2% 1.83 54.6%
Over 178.5 — 1.85 54.1% —
Over 179.5 — 1.83 54.6% —
Under 177.5 1.81 55.3% 1.82 55.0% 1.83 54.6%
Under 178.5 — 1.85 54.1% —
Under 179.5 — 1.87 53.5% —

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Leon
1.61 62.1% 1.61 62.1% 1.63 61.4%
2.15 46.5% 2.15 46.5% 2.14 46.7%
Match center
Criollos de Caguas
L L L W W
28.07 22:00 UTC PUERTO-RIKO: BSN - Playoff
Criollos de Caguas 74:78 Vakeros de BayamonVakeros de Bayamon
26.07 22:00 UTC PUERTO-RIKO: BSN - Playoff
Criollos de Caguas 74:78 Vakeros de BayamonVakeros de Bayamon
24.07 22:00 UTC PUERTO-RIKO: BSN - Playoff
Criollos de Caguas 74:78 Vakeros de BayamonVakeros de Bayamon
20.07 22:00 UTC PUERTO-RIKO: BSN - Playoff
Criollos de Caguas 95:78 Kangrekheros de SanturseKangrekheros de Santurse
18.07 22:00 UTC PUERTO-RIKO: BSN - Playoff
Criollos de Caguas 95:78 Kangrekheros de SanturseKangrekheros de Santurse
2 Wins
3 Losses
82.4 Scored
78.0 Conceded
40% Win percentage
Vaqueros de Bayamon
W W W W W
28.07 22:00 UTC PUERTO-RIKO: BSN - Playoff
Vaqueros de Bayamon 78:74 Criollos de CaguasCriollos de Caguas
26.07 22:00 UTC PUERTO-RIKO: BSN - Playoff
Vaqueros de Bayamon 78:74 Criollos de CaguasCriollos de Caguas
24.07 22:00 UTC PUERTO-RIKO: BSN - Playoff
Vaqueros de Bayamon 78:74 Criollos de CaguasCriollos de Caguas
17.07 22:00 UTC PUERTO-RIKO: BSN - Playoff
Vaqueros de Bayamon 72:68 Gigantes de KarolinaGigantes de Karolina
15.07 22:00 UTC PUERTO-RIKO: BSN - Playoff
Vaqueros de Bayamon 72:68 Gigantes de KarolinaGigantes de Karolina
5 Wins
0 Losses
75.6 Scored
71.6 Conceded
100% Win percentage
Match center

Full head-to-head historyCriollos de Caguas - Vaqueros de Bayamon

Criollos de Caguas
3 matches total
Vaqueros de Bayamon
Criollos de Caguas: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Vaqueros de Bayamon: 3 (100%)
Biggest win Vakeros de Bayamon 74:78 (28.07 22:00 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 152 goals (74:78, 28.07 22:00 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

28.07 22:00 UTC PUERTO-RIKO: BSN - Playoff
Criollos de Caguas
74:78
Vakeros de Bayamon
26.07 22:00 UTC PUERTO-RIKO: BSN - Playoff
Criollos de Caguas
74:78
Vakeros de Bayamon
24.07 22:00 UTC PUERTO-RIKO: BSN - Playoff
Criollos de Caguas
74:78
Vakeros de Bayamon