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PUERTO-RIKO: BSN - Playoff
PUERTO-RIKO: BSN - Playoff
03.08.2026 00:00 UTC Match prediction
03.08.2026 00:00 UTC
Finished

PUERTO-RIKO: BSN - Playoff

Criollos de Caguas - Vaqueros de Bayamon

Basketball
Criollos de Caguas
Criollos de Caguas
78 : 74
Finished
Vaqueros de Bayamon
Vaqueros de Bayamon

Criollos de Caguas take on Vaqueros de Bayamon on August 3, 2026 in the PUERTO-RIKO: BSN - Playoff.

Recent form (W-D-L): Criollos de Caguas 1-0-4, Vaqueros de Bayamon 4-0-1. These sides have met 3 times recently — the head-to-head record is shown below. PrognozAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 54% to win. Below: team form, head-to-head history, bookmaker odds and the full PrognozAI AI breakdown.

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Criollos de Caguas — 54%

Pure model vs market (1 · Criollos de Caguas): model 49% · market 54% Δ −5 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Criollos de Caguas53.8%
2 · Vaqueros de Bayamon46.2%

Model estimate: win Criollos de Caguas 53.8%, win Vaqueros de Bayamon 46.2%. Model favourite — Criollos de Caguas.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Criollos de Caguas (odds1.52) Score 81:79 confidence 56% ✓ outcome correct
  • • Vakeros de Bayamon: forma VVVVV (5-0)
  • • Criollos de Caguas: forma PPPPV (1-4)
  • • ochnye 3-0 (za 3)
  • • Model backs Vakeros de Bayamon: probability 56% vs 66% on the line (odds 1.52)
  • • no edge over the line (-10 pp) — informational only.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Criollos de Caguas - Vaqueros de Bayamon August 3, 2026

Basketball math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Criollos de Caguas.

Line favourite market consensus: Criollos de Caguas. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • Win odds (market consensus): 1 1.73 / 2 2.03
  • Glicko: Criollos de Caguas 53.8% / Vaqueros de Bayamon 46.2%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
Winner bookmaker margin 7.1%
1 54.0%
2 46.0%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 03.08.2026 00:00 UTC
Market 1 54.0% @ 1.73 / 2 46.0% @ 2.03
Form 6 matches
H2H 3
Match center

Criollos de Caguas - Vaqueros de Bayamon

V baze uchteny nedavnie matchi oboikh uchastnikov i 3 ochnykh vstrech.

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 3 head-to-head matches
Market 2 model / bookmakers
Flashscore match data source checked
Odds match data source checked
Line depth match data source checked
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants H2H Line Overview
More needed
Tournament Championat, Flashscore
Lineup / squad Championat, Injuries
Movement Line history
Post-match / PropickAI database
Score 78:74
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 54.8% fact: home hit / ROI 69.0% / Brier 0.408 / LogLoss 0.601
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 51.9% fact: home hit / ROI 69.0% / Brier 0.462 / LogLoss 0.655
Market and Glicko

Basketball math model. The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Criollos de Caguas 54.2% 53.8% market and model agree
Vaqueros de Bayamon 45.8% 46.2%
1X2: 3 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Basketball math model
P1 / P2 53.8% / 46.2% probabilities
Rating 1,652 / 1,747 Criollos de Caguas / Vaqueros de Bayamon
RD 106 / 134 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,440-1,864 / 1,478-2,016 strength interval
HFA: 65 HFA mu: 0.374 MoV: on N: N=1 P: two_way_glicko2_expected_score

Best value: no value found

The basketball model is built around the expected spread: Glicko-2, home court, tempo, lineup and margin of victory. Totals and handicaps are shown separately when there is enough market data for them.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.01 market consensus · no value · model 46.2%
1 1.71 market consensus · no value · model 53.8%
Total
Over 174.5 1.87 market consensus · line only
Over 175.5 1.83 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Handicap

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Leon
1.79 55.9% 1.80 55.6% 1.82 55.0%
1.89 52.9% 1.90 52.6% 1.89 52.9%
— 1.90 52.6% —
1.89 52.9% 1.90 52.6% 1.89 52.9%
1.79 55.9% 1.80 55.6% 1.82 55.0%
— 1.80 55.6% —

Total

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Leon
Over 174.5 — 1.87 53.5% —
Over 175.5 1.82 55.0% 1.83 54.6% 1.83 54.6%
Over 177.5 — — 1.89 52.9%
Over 179.5 1.86 53.8% 1.87 53.5% —
Over 180.5 — — 1.83 54.6%
Over 181.5 — — 1.95 51.3%
Under 174.5 — 1.83 54.6% —
Under 175.5 1.86 53.8% 1.87 53.5% 1.87 53.5%
Under 177.5 — — 1.82 55.0%
Under 179.5 1.82 55.0% 1.83 54.6% —
Under 180.5 — — 1.83 54.6%
Under 181.5 — — 1.74 57.5%

Outcome (1X2)

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Leon
1.69 59.2% 1.70 58.8% 1.73 57.8%
2.00 50.0% 2.03 49.3% 1.99 50.3%
Match center
Criollos de Caguas
W L L L L
02.08 00:00 UTC PUERTO-RIKO: BSN - Playoff
Criollos de Caguas 78:74 Vakeros de BayamonVakeros de Bayamon
30.07 22:00 UTC PUERTO-RIKO: BSN - Playoff
Criollos de Caguas 74:78 Vakeros de BayamonVakeros de Bayamon
28.07 22:00 UTC PUERTO-RIKO: BSN - Playoff
Criollos de Caguas 74:78 Vakeros de BayamonVakeros de Bayamon
26.07 22:00 UTC PUERTO-RIKO: BSN - Playoff
Criollos de Caguas 74:78 Vakeros de BayamonVakeros de Bayamon
24.07 22:00 UTC PUERTO-RIKO: BSN - Playoff
Criollos de Caguas 74:78 Vakeros de BayamonVakeros de Bayamon
1 Wins
4 Losses
74.8 Scored
77.2 Conceded
20% Win percentage
Vaqueros de Bayamon
L W W W W
02.08 00:00 UTC PUERTO-RIKO: BSN - Playoff
Vaqueros de Bayamon 74:78 Criollos de CaguasCriollos de Caguas
30.07 22:00 UTC PUERTO-RIKO: BSN - Playoff
Vaqueros de Bayamon 78:74 Criollos de CaguasCriollos de Caguas
28.07 22:00 UTC PUERTO-RIKO: BSN - Playoff
Vaqueros de Bayamon 78:74 Criollos de CaguasCriollos de Caguas
26.07 22:00 UTC PUERTO-RIKO: BSN - Playoff
Vaqueros de Bayamon 78:74 Criollos de CaguasCriollos de Caguas
24.07 22:00 UTC PUERTO-RIKO: BSN - Playoff
Vaqueros de Bayamon 78:74 Criollos de CaguasCriollos de Caguas
4 Wins
1 Losses
77.2 Scored
74.8 Conceded
80% Win percentage
Match center

Full head-to-head historyCriollos de Caguas - Vaqueros de Bayamon

Criollos de Caguas
3 matches total
Vaqueros de Bayamon
Criollos de Caguas: 1 (33.3%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Vaqueros de Bayamon: 2 (66.7%)
Biggest win Criollos de Caguas 78:74 (02.08 00:00 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 152 goals (78:74, 02.08 00:00 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

02.08 00:00 UTC PUERTO-RIKO: BSN - Playoff
Criollos de Caguas
78:74
Vakeros de Bayamon
30.07 22:00 UTC PUERTO-RIKO: BSN - Playoff
Criollos de Caguas
74:78
Vakeros de Bayamon
28.07 22:00 UTC PUERTO-RIKO: BSN - Playoff
Criollos de Caguas
74:78
Vakeros de Bayamon